Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–27 April 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
29.1% |
27.3–31.0% |
26.8–31.5% |
26.4–32.0% |
25.5–32.9% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
27.6% |
25.8–29.5% |
25.3–30.0% |
24.9–30.5% |
24.1–31.4% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
18.0% |
16.5–19.6% |
16.1–20.1% |
15.7–20.5% |
15.1–21.3% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
8.1% |
7.1–9.3% |
6.8–9.7% |
6.6–10.0% |
6.1–10.6% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
6.2% |
5.3–7.3% |
5.1–7.6% |
4.9–7.9% |
4.5–8.4% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
5.3% |
4.5–6.3% |
4.3–6.6% |
4.1–6.9% |
3.7–7.4% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
2.1% |
1.6–2.8% |
1.5–3.0% |
1.4–3.2% |
1.2–3.6% |
Eesti Vabaerakond |
1.2% |
0.7% |
0.5–1.2% |
0.4–1.3% |
0.3–1.4% |
0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
30 |
4% |
98% |
|
31 |
9% |
93% |
|
32 |
20% |
84% |
|
33 |
15% |
64% |
Median |
34 |
21% |
49% |
Last Result |
35 |
12% |
28% |
|
36 |
10% |
16% |
|
37 |
4% |
6% |
|
38 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
40 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
Last Result |
27 |
1.4% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
3% |
98% |
|
29 |
17% |
95% |
|
30 |
15% |
79% |
|
31 |
13% |
63% |
|
32 |
23% |
51% |
Median |
33 |
14% |
27% |
|
34 |
7% |
13% |
|
35 |
4% |
7% |
|
36 |
2% |
3% |
|
37 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
38 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.6% |
|
17 |
9% |
97% |
|
18 |
21% |
89% |
|
19 |
22% |
68% |
Last Result, Median |
20 |
18% |
46% |
|
21 |
19% |
28% |
|
22 |
6% |
9% |
|
23 |
2% |
3% |
|
24 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
25 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
26 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
6 |
9% |
99.4% |
|
7 |
29% |
90% |
|
8 |
41% |
61% |
Median |
9 |
16% |
21% |
|
10 |
4% |
4% |
Last Result |
11 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
4% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
96% |
|
2 |
0% |
96% |
|
3 |
0% |
96% |
|
4 |
2% |
96% |
|
5 |
36% |
94% |
|
6 |
42% |
57% |
Median |
7 |
13% |
16% |
|
8 |
3% |
3% |
|
9 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
30% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
70% |
|
2 |
0% |
70% |
|
3 |
0% |
70% |
|
4 |
13% |
70% |
|
5 |
45% |
57% |
Median |
6 |
11% |
12% |
|
7 |
1.3% |
1.3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
79 |
84 |
100% |
81–88 |
81–89 |
80–89 |
79–93 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
65 |
100% |
62–68 |
61–69 |
60–70 |
59–72 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
56 |
99.4% |
53–59 |
53–60 |
52–61 |
50–63 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
54 |
96% |
52–57 |
51–58 |
50–59 |
48–60 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
53 |
78% |
50–56 |
49–57 |
49–58 |
47–59 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
45 |
51 |
50% |
48–54 |
47–55 |
47–56 |
45–57 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond |
56 |
45 |
0.5% |
42–48 |
40–48 |
40–49 |
39–50 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
45 |
0.5% |
42–48 |
40–48 |
40–49 |
39–50 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
43 |
0% |
39–46 |
38–46 |
38–47 |
37–48 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
41 |
0% |
39–44 |
38–45 |
37–46 |
36–47 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
39 |
0% |
37–42 |
36–43 |
35–43 |
34–45 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
37 |
0% |
34–40 |
33–41 |
32–41 |
31–42 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
24–30 |
24–31 |
23–32 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
78 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
79 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
80 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
81 |
9% |
97% |
|
82 |
22% |
88% |
|
83 |
15% |
66% |
|
84 |
13% |
50% |
Median |
85 |
7% |
37% |
|
86 |
7% |
30% |
|
87 |
8% |
23% |
|
88 |
8% |
15% |
|
89 |
5% |
7% |
|
90 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
1.4% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
1.2% |
|
93 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
58 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
59 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
2% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
61 |
6% |
97% |
|
62 |
9% |
91% |
|
63 |
16% |
82% |
|
64 |
15% |
65% |
|
65 |
10% |
50% |
Median |
66 |
16% |
40% |
|
67 |
11% |
24% |
|
68 |
6% |
13% |
|
69 |
4% |
8% |
|
70 |
2% |
4% |
|
71 |
2% |
2% |
|
72 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
73 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
74 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
75 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
51 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
Majority |
52 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
53 |
8% |
97% |
|
54 |
9% |
89% |
|
55 |
19% |
80% |
|
56 |
13% |
61% |
|
57 |
11% |
48% |
Median |
58 |
23% |
37% |
|
59 |
10% |
15% |
|
60 |
2% |
5% |
|
61 |
2% |
3% |
|
62 |
0.9% |
1.5% |
|
63 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
47 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
48 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
49 |
1.1% |
99.4% |
|
50 |
3% |
98% |
|
51 |
5% |
96% |
Majority |
52 |
12% |
91% |
|
53 |
15% |
79% |
|
54 |
19% |
64% |
|
55 |
18% |
45% |
|
56 |
12% |
27% |
Median |
57 |
9% |
16% |
Last Result |
58 |
3% |
7% |
|
59 |
2% |
3% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
61 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
1.2% |
99.4% |
|
49 |
6% |
98% |
|
50 |
14% |
92% |
|
51 |
8% |
78% |
Majority |
52 |
11% |
70% |
Median |
53 |
24% |
59% |
Last Result |
54 |
13% |
35% |
|
55 |
6% |
22% |
|
56 |
8% |
16% |
|
57 |
5% |
8% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
60 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
61 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
62 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
Last Result |
46 |
1.3% |
99.4% |
|
47 |
4% |
98% |
|
48 |
12% |
94% |
|
49 |
11% |
82% |
|
50 |
20% |
70% |
|
51 |
15% |
50% |
Median, Majority |
52 |
12% |
35% |
|
53 |
10% |
23% |
|
54 |
6% |
13% |
|
55 |
3% |
7% |
|
56 |
2% |
3% |
|
57 |
1.2% |
1.5% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
1.5% |
99.6% |
|
40 |
4% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
95% |
|
42 |
8% |
91% |
|
43 |
13% |
82% |
|
44 |
11% |
70% |
|
45 |
23% |
59% |
|
46 |
12% |
35% |
Median |
47 |
12% |
23% |
|
48 |
7% |
11% |
|
49 |
3% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
1.5% |
99.6% |
|
40 |
4% |
98% |
|
41 |
4% |
95% |
|
42 |
8% |
91% |
|
43 |
13% |
82% |
|
44 |
11% |
70% |
|
45 |
23% |
59% |
|
46 |
12% |
35% |
Median |
47 |
12% |
23% |
|
48 |
7% |
11% |
|
49 |
3% |
4% |
|
50 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
51 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
Majority |
52 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
37 |
1.3% |
99.6% |
|
38 |
4% |
98% |
|
39 |
5% |
95% |
|
40 |
7% |
90% |
|
41 |
14% |
83% |
|
42 |
17% |
69% |
|
43 |
17% |
52% |
|
44 |
10% |
35% |
|
45 |
13% |
25% |
Median |
46 |
7% |
12% |
|
47 |
4% |
5% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
49 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
38 |
5% |
96% |
|
39 |
10% |
90% |
|
40 |
20% |
80% |
|
41 |
16% |
60% |
Median |
42 |
16% |
44% |
|
43 |
15% |
28% |
|
44 |
6% |
13% |
Last Result |
45 |
4% |
7% |
|
46 |
2% |
3% |
|
47 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
48 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
49 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
6% |
97% |
Last Result |
37 |
17% |
92% |
|
38 |
16% |
75% |
|
39 |
15% |
58% |
|
40 |
18% |
44% |
Median |
41 |
12% |
26% |
|
42 |
8% |
14% |
|
43 |
4% |
6% |
|
44 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
46 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
29 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
30 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
31 |
0.9% |
99.6% |
|
32 |
3% |
98.7% |
|
33 |
5% |
96% |
|
34 |
7% |
91% |
|
35 |
11% |
84% |
|
36 |
13% |
74% |
|
37 |
21% |
61% |
|
38 |
12% |
40% |
Median |
39 |
14% |
28% |
|
40 |
7% |
13% |
|
41 |
5% |
6% |
|
42 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
23 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
24 |
6% |
98.6% |
|
25 |
13% |
93% |
|
26 |
20% |
80% |
|
27 |
16% |
60% |
Median |
28 |
17% |
44% |
|
29 |
17% |
27% |
Last Result |
30 |
6% |
10% |
|
31 |
2% |
4% |
|
32 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
33 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
34 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 21–27 April 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.91%