Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–27 April 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.5% 26.4–32.0% 25.5–32.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 27.6% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.0% 24.9–30.5% 24.1–31.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.5–19.6% 16.1–20.1% 15.7–20.5% 15.1–21.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 32 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 17–22 16–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–11
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 4–7 0–8 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 9% 93%  
32 20% 84%  
33 15% 64% Median
34 21% 49% Last Result
35 12% 28%  
36 10% 16%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.4% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100% Last Result
27 1.4% 99.7%  
28 3% 98%  
29 17% 95%  
30 15% 79%  
31 13% 63%  
32 23% 51% Median
33 14% 27%  
34 7% 13%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.3% 0.6%  
38 0.3% 0.3%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 9% 97%  
18 21% 89%  
19 22% 68% Last Result, Median
20 18% 46%  
21 19% 28%  
22 6% 9%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.6% 100%  
6 9% 99.4%  
7 29% 90%  
8 41% 61% Median
9 16% 21%  
10 4% 4% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 0% 96%  
3 0% 96%  
4 2% 96%  
5 36% 94%  
6 42% 57% Median
7 13% 16%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100%  
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 13% 70%  
5 45% 57% Median
6 11% 12%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 81–88 81–89 80–89 79–93
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 62–68 61–69 60–70 59–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.4% 53–59 53–60 52–61 50–63
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 54 96% 52–57 51–58 50–59 48–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 78% 50–56 49–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 51 50% 48–54 47–55 47–56 45–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 45 0.5% 42–48 40–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.5% 42–48 40–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 39–46 38–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–44 38–45 37–46 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–41 31–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
80 2% 99.4%  
81 9% 97%  
82 22% 88%  
83 15% 66%  
84 13% 50% Median
85 7% 37%  
86 7% 30%  
87 8% 23%  
88 8% 15%  
89 5% 7%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.1% 1.4%  
92 0.3% 1.2%  
93 0.8% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.6% 99.9%  
60 2% 99.3% Last Result
61 6% 97%  
62 9% 91%  
63 16% 82%  
64 15% 65%  
65 10% 50% Median
66 16% 40%  
67 11% 24%  
68 6% 13%  
69 4% 8%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.6% 99.4% Majority
52 2% 98.8%  
53 8% 97%  
54 9% 89%  
55 19% 80%  
56 13% 61%  
57 11% 48% Median
58 23% 37%  
59 10% 15%  
60 2% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.9% 1.5%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 1.1% 99.4%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 96% Majority
52 12% 91%  
53 15% 79%  
54 19% 64%  
55 18% 45%  
56 12% 27% Median
57 9% 16% Last Result
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.9% 1.3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 1.2% 99.4%  
49 6% 98%  
50 14% 92%  
51 8% 78% Majority
52 11% 70% Median
53 24% 59% Last Result
54 13% 35%  
55 6% 22%  
56 8% 16%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.9% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
46 1.3% 99.4%  
47 4% 98%  
48 12% 94%  
49 11% 82%  
50 20% 70%  
51 15% 50% Median, Majority
52 12% 35%  
53 10% 23%  
54 6% 13%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 1.2% 1.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 1.5% 99.6%  
40 4% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 8% 91%  
43 13% 82%  
44 11% 70%  
45 23% 59%  
46 12% 35% Median
47 12% 23%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 1.5% 99.6%  
40 4% 98%  
41 4% 95%  
42 8% 91%  
43 13% 82%  
44 11% 70%  
45 23% 59%  
46 12% 35% Median
47 12% 23%  
48 7% 11%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.1% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.6%  
38 4% 98%  
39 5% 95%  
40 7% 90%  
41 14% 83%  
42 17% 69%  
43 17% 52%  
44 10% 35%  
45 13% 25% Median
46 7% 12%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 5% 96%  
39 10% 90%  
40 20% 80%  
41 16% 60% Median
42 16% 44%  
43 15% 28%  
44 6% 13% Last Result
45 4% 7%  
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 98.9%  
36 6% 97% Last Result
37 17% 92%  
38 16% 75%  
39 15% 58%  
40 18% 44% Median
41 12% 26%  
42 8% 14%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.3% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.9%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.3% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.6%  
32 3% 98.7%  
33 5% 96%  
34 7% 91%  
35 11% 84%  
36 13% 74%  
37 21% 61%  
38 12% 40% Median
39 14% 28%  
40 7% 13%  
41 5% 6%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 6% 98.6%  
25 13% 93%  
26 20% 80%  
27 16% 60% Median
28 17% 44%  
29 17% 27% Last Result
30 6% 10%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.8% 1.2%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations