Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24 April–5 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.8% 28.0–31.7% 27.5–32.3% 27.0–32.7% 26.2–33.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.8% 22.1–25.6% 21.7–26.1% 21.3–26.6% 20.5–27.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.2% 17.7–20.9% 17.2–21.4% 16.9–21.8% 16.2–22.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.5–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–38 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 24–29 24–29 23–30 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 18–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 8–11 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.3% 99.6%  
31 3% 98%  
32 9% 95%  
33 30% 86%  
34 22% 56% Last Result, Median
35 12% 34%  
36 10% 22%  
37 6% 12%  
38 2% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.7%  
24 12% 97%  
25 16% 85%  
26 5% 68% Last Result
27 15% 63% Median
28 13% 48%  
29 31% 35%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.2% 0.8%  
32 0.5% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 10% 99.1%  
19 9% 89% Last Result
20 23% 81%  
21 35% 58% Median
22 7% 23%  
23 7% 16%  
24 7% 9%  
25 1.0% 1.5%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.6% 100%  
7 3% 99.4%  
8 18% 96%  
9 43% 78% Median
10 26% 35% Last Result
11 7% 9%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 14% 97%  
8 49% 83% Median
9 23% 34%  
10 8% 11%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 67% 100% Median
1 0% 33%  
2 0% 33%  
3 0% 33%  
4 7% 33%  
5 25% 26%  
6 0.7% 0.9%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 78–85 78–85 77–86 76–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 59–64 57–64 57–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.9% 54–59 54–61 53–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 99.3% 52–59 51–59 51–60 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 19% 47–52 45–53 44–54 43–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 48 8% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 44 0.3% 43–48 41–49 41–50 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.3% 43–48 41–49 41–50 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 41–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 34–41 33–42 33–42 32–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–39 33–40 32–41 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 33–39 32–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 27–32 27–33 27–34 25–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.5%  
78 10% 97%  
79 8% 88% Last Result
80 10% 79%  
81 7% 70%  
82 7% 63% Median
83 29% 56%  
84 16% 27%  
85 8% 10%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.4% 99.5%  
57 4% 98%  
58 2% 95%  
59 16% 93%  
60 17% 77% Last Result
61 12% 60% Median
62 23% 49%  
63 14% 26%  
64 8% 12%  
65 3% 4%  
66 1.0% 1.3%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 0.8% 99.4%  
53 3% 98.6%  
54 23% 96%  
55 11% 72% Median
56 16% 62%  
57 13% 46%  
58 6% 33%  
59 18% 27%  
60 4% 9%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.8% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.7%  
51 9% 99.3% Majority
52 7% 90%  
53 4% 83% Last Result
54 33% 79%  
55 12% 46% Median
56 8% 34%  
57 11% 26%  
58 4% 16%  
59 8% 12%  
60 3% 3%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 4% 97%  
46 3% 94%  
47 5% 91%  
48 17% 86% Median
49 6% 68%  
50 43% 62%  
51 7% 19% Majority
52 5% 12%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.5%  
44 6% 97%  
45 18% 91% Last Result
46 4% 73%  
47 9% 68%  
48 16% 59% Median
49 7% 43%  
50 29% 36%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.5% 0.5%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.3%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 4% 94%  
43 27% 90% Median
44 15% 63%  
45 8% 48%  
46 10% 41%  
47 13% 30%  
48 9% 18%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 0.5% 99.3%  
41 4% 98.8%  
42 4% 94%  
43 27% 90% Median
44 15% 63%  
45 8% 48%  
46 10% 41%  
47 13% 30%  
48 9% 18%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 2% 97%  
41 10% 95%  
42 13% 85%  
43 35% 72% Median
44 15% 37% Last Result
45 11% 22%  
46 5% 12%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.0% 3%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.4%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 2% 99.9%  
33 6% 98%  
34 7% 92%  
35 6% 86%  
36 7% 80% Median
37 10% 73%  
38 15% 63%  
39 28% 48%  
40 4% 20%  
41 11% 16%  
42 5% 5%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 0.9% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 21% 95%  
34 13% 74% Median
35 11% 61%  
36 12% 50%  
37 7% 37%  
38 13% 30%  
39 11% 18%  
40 2% 7%  
41 4% 4%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 6% 99.0%  
33 7% 93%  
34 16% 86%  
35 9% 71%  
36 13% 62% Last Result, Median
37 13% 49%  
38 15% 37%  
39 19% 22%  
40 1.5% 3%  
41 1.0% 1.2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.4%  
27 10% 98%  
28 8% 88%  
29 23% 80% Last Result
30 13% 57% Median
31 27% 44%  
32 9% 17%  
33 6% 9%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.1% 1.2%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations