Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–12 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.9% 27.1–30.8% 26.6–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.3–32.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–20.0% 15.6–20.4% 15.0–21.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 30–37 29–38 28–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–22 17–23 15–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.7%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 6% 96%  
31 26% 90%  
32 7% 64%  
33 12% 57% Median
34 4% 45% Last Result
35 34% 41%  
36 2% 8%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 1.2%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 4% 98%  
26 11% 94% Last Result
27 13% 82%  
28 44% 70% Median
29 11% 25%  
30 6% 14%  
31 6% 8%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.5%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.9%  
16 1.3% 99.0%  
17 4% 98%  
18 34% 93%  
19 13% 59% Last Result, Median
20 15% 47%  
21 26% 32%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 29% 95%  
8 50% 66% Median
9 11% 15%  
10 4% 4% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 7% 99.5%  
7 28% 93%  
8 44% 65% Median
9 18% 21%  
10 2% 3%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 27% 92%  
5 26% 65% Median
6 30% 39%  
7 7% 9%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 78–82 77–83 77–85 75–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 58–63 57–65 56–66 55–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.9% 55–60 54–60 53–61 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 84% 50–54 49–56 48–58 47–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 53 61% 49–55 48–56 47–56 45–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 47 4% 45–50 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 2% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 38–43 37–45 37–45 35–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 39–43 37–45 35–45 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 35–40 35–41 34–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 26–29 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 1.1% 99.5%  
77 5% 98%  
78 6% 93%  
79 10% 87% Last Result
80 25% 77% Median
81 36% 52%  
82 7% 15%  
83 4% 9%  
84 1.1% 5%  
85 2% 4%  
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.4%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.7% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.1%  
57 3% 97%  
58 6% 94%  
59 20% 89%  
60 16% 69% Last Result
61 8% 53% Median
62 7% 45%  
63 28% 38%  
64 4% 9%  
65 3% 6%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 0.3% 99.5%  
53 2% 99.2%  
54 3% 97%  
55 10% 94%  
56 4% 83%  
57 43% 79% Median
58 12% 36%  
59 9% 24%  
60 11% 15%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.6%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 7% 97%  
50 6% 90%  
51 9% 84% Majority
52 21% 76% Median
53 29% 55% Last Result
54 18% 26%  
55 3% 8%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.8% 4%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.3%  
47 3% 98.6%  
48 4% 96%  
49 4% 92%  
50 27% 89%  
51 7% 61% Majority
52 2% 54% Median
53 8% 51%  
54 26% 43%  
55 9% 17%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 2% Last Result
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.8%  
43 1.5% 98.7%  
44 7% 97%  
45 5% 90% Last Result
46 26% 86%  
47 12% 60% Median
48 14% 48%  
49 23% 34%  
50 7% 10%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 11% 95%  
44 15% 85%  
45 12% 69%  
46 11% 57% Median
47 32% 46%  
48 7% 14%  
49 4% 7%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.5%  
42 2% 98%  
43 11% 95%  
44 15% 85%  
45 12% 69%  
46 11% 57% Median
47 32% 46%  
48 7% 14%  
49 4% 7%  
50 1.2% 3%  
51 0.9% 2% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 4% 98%  
38 15% 94%  
39 17% 79%  
40 10% 62%  
41 8% 52% Median
42 4% 44%  
43 31% 41%  
44 3% 9% Last Result
45 4% 7%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.2%  
48 0.7% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 1.2% 99.9%  
35 1.3% 98.7%  
36 1.0% 97%  
37 2% 96%  
38 4% 94%  
39 4% 91%  
40 51% 87%  
41 14% 36% Median
42 3% 21%  
43 8% 18%  
44 4% 10%  
45 6% 6%  
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.8% 99.7%  
33 0.7% 98.9%  
34 2% 98%  
35 7% 96%  
36 14% 89%  
37 14% 75%  
38 9% 61% Median
39 38% 52%  
40 6% 14%  
41 5% 8%  
42 1.3% 3%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 5% 97%  
34 16% 92%  
35 15% 76%  
36 38% 61% Last Result, Median
37 8% 23%  
38 6% 14%  
39 7% 8%  
40 0.9% 1.5%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.4% 100%  
23 1.5% 99.6%  
24 1.3% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 38% 94%  
27 17% 55% Median
28 15% 38%  
29 15% 23% Last Result
30 5% 8%  
31 0.7% 3%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations