Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 7–15 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.2% 29.3–33.1% 28.8–33.6% 28.4–34.1% 27.5–35.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.8–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.8–18.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.3% 7.2–9.5% 7.0–9.8% 6.7–10.1% 6.2–10.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.3% 6.3–8.4% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 33–37 32–38 31–38 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 31 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–17 14–18 13–19 12–19
Eesti 200 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–6 5–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.3%  
32 4% 97%  
33 27% 92%  
34 32% 66% Last Result, Median
35 15% 34%  
36 9% 20%  
37 4% 10%  
38 5% 6%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
27 1.2% 99.5%  
28 4% 98%  
29 29% 94%  
30 12% 66%  
31 14% 54% Median
32 23% 40%  
33 3% 17%  
34 10% 13%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.5% 0.6%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.8% 100%  
13 4% 99.1%  
14 11% 95%  
15 14% 85%  
16 33% 71% Median
17 30% 37%  
18 3% 7%  
19 3% 4% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.5% 100%  
6 12% 99.5%  
7 18% 88%  
8 39% 70% Median
9 28% 31%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 7% 99.5%  
6 46% 92% Median
7 35% 46%  
8 8% 11%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 3% 98%  
5 46% 95% Median
6 40% 50%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 80–83 79–84 79–84 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.8% 54–58 53–59 53–59 51–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 85% 50–54 49–55 49–56 47–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 48% 48–53 48–54 48–54 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 2% 45–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 2% 44–49 44–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 38–42 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–40 35–41 34–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 20–24 20–25 19–26 19–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.5% 99.9%  
78 2% 99.5%  
79 7% 98% Last Result
80 34% 91%  
81 27% 58% Median
82 11% 31%  
83 13% 20%  
84 5% 7%  
85 0.8% 2%  
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
61 1.1% 99.7%  
62 2% 98.5%  
63 27% 97%  
64 6% 69%  
65 30% 63% Median
66 5% 32%  
67 14% 27%  
68 5% 13%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.4% 0.9%  
72 0.4% 0.4%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.8% Majority
52 1.0% 99.1%  
53 6% 98%  
54 32% 93%  
55 9% 61% Median
56 7% 52%  
57 31% 45%  
58 5% 14%  
59 6% 8%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 1.3% 99.2%  
49 6% 98%  
50 7% 92%  
51 5% 85% Majority
52 32% 80% Median
53 34% 48%  
54 5% 14%  
55 5% 9%  
56 1.3% 3%  
57 2% 2% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.7%  
47 0.5% 99.0%  
48 12% 98%  
49 31% 86%  
50 7% 55% Median
51 32% 48% Majority
52 3% 16%  
53 6% 13% Last Result
54 5% 7%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.7%  
43 3% 98.8%  
44 5% 96%  
45 6% 91% Last Result
46 36% 85%  
47 6% 48% Median
48 31% 42%  
49 4% 12%  
50 6% 8%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 7% 96%  
45 23% 89% Median
46 30% 66%  
47 18% 36%  
48 6% 18%  
49 3% 12%  
50 8% 9%  
51 0.9% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.8%  
43 2% 98%  
44 7% 96%  
45 23% 89% Median
46 30% 66%  
47 18% 36%  
48 6% 18%  
49 3% 12%  
50 8% 9%  
51 0.9% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.5%  
39 2% 98.6%  
40 2% 96%  
41 29% 94%  
42 12% 65% Median
43 7% 52%  
44 24% 45%  
45 13% 22%  
46 6% 9%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.7%  
38 4% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 45% 87% Median
41 17% 42%  
42 10% 25%  
43 5% 15%  
44 4% 10% Last Result
45 6% 6%  
46 0.3% 0.8%  
47 0.4% 0.5%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.6%  
36 0.9% 98.9%  
37 4% 98%  
38 25% 94%  
39 6% 69% Median
40 38% 63%  
41 12% 25%  
42 4% 13%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.8% 1.0%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.6% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.4%  
34 3% 98.9%  
35 26% 96%  
36 11% 71% Last Result
37 12% 59% Median
38 8% 48%  
39 23% 40%  
40 11% 17%  
41 5% 6%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.5%  
20 8% 96%  
21 10% 88%  
22 14% 79% Median
23 52% 65%  
24 6% 13%  
25 4% 7%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations