Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.3% 28.0–33.7% 27.2–34.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–39 33–39 32–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 31 28–32 27–33 26–34 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 14–22
Eesti 200 0 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 7–8 6–8 5–8 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 7% 96%  
34 4% 90% Last Result
35 44% 85% Median
36 12% 41%  
37 5% 29%  
38 12% 25%  
39 9% 12%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.1% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4% Last Result
27 4% 97%  
28 9% 93%  
29 13% 84%  
30 15% 71%  
31 24% 56% Median
32 26% 32%  
33 2% 6%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 1.0% 100%  
15 1.1% 98.9%  
16 14% 98%  
17 13% 84%  
18 29% 71% Median
19 29% 42% Last Result
20 9% 13%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 1.0%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.1% 100%  
6 1.4% 99.9%  
7 16% 98.6%  
8 42% 82% Median
9 30% 41%  
10 7% 11%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 5% 96%  
7 49% 90% Median
8 40% 42%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 3% 19%  
5 14% 16%  
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 85 100% 81–86 80–87 80–87 79–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 66 100% 63–69 62–70 61–70 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 99.4% 53–58 52–59 52–59 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 96% 51–57 51–58 50–58 49–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 21% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 49 8% 46–50 45–52 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 43 0.3% 42–47 41–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0.3% 42–47 41–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 36–42 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 38 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 2% 99.6% Last Result
80 7% 98%  
81 4% 91%  
82 3% 86%  
83 7% 83%  
84 9% 76% Median
85 37% 67%  
86 23% 30%  
87 5% 7%  
88 0.9% 1.4%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 2% 99.8% Last Result
61 1.2% 98%  
62 6% 97%  
63 2% 91%  
64 10% 89%  
65 6% 80%  
66 24% 73% Median
67 25% 49%  
68 6% 24%  
69 10% 17%  
70 6% 7%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.4% Majority
52 5% 98%  
53 20% 93% Median
54 29% 73%  
55 5% 44%  
56 18% 40%  
57 9% 21%  
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 6%  
60 1.4% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 4% 99.4%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 8% 89%  
53 22% 80% Last Result, Median
54 31% 58%  
55 3% 28%  
56 12% 25%  
57 7% 13%  
58 5% 6%  
59 1.1% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.9% 99.8%  
45 1.5% 98.9%  
46 3% 97%  
47 10% 95%  
48 17% 84%  
49 4% 67% Median
50 42% 63%  
51 7% 21% Majority
52 8% 14%  
53 5% 7%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 5% 96% Last Result
46 6% 91%  
47 14% 85%  
48 20% 72%  
49 3% 52% Median
50 40% 49%  
51 2% 8% Majority
52 6% 6%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 25% 94% Median
43 22% 70%  
44 10% 48%  
45 8% 38%  
46 15% 30%  
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 8%  
49 1.5% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 25% 94% Median
43 22% 70%  
44 10% 48%  
45 8% 38%  
46 15% 30%  
47 6% 14%  
48 5% 8%  
49 1.5% 3%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.6%  
39 4% 99.1%  
40 3% 96%  
41 8% 93%  
42 26% 85% Median
43 25% 58%  
44 8% 33% Last Result
45 8% 25%  
46 12% 17%  
47 3% 5%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.8%  
34 1.4% 98.7%  
35 3% 97%  
36 7% 95%  
37 15% 87%  
38 6% 73% Median
39 44% 66%  
40 6% 22%  
41 5% 16%  
42 10% 11%  
43 0.9% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.6%  
34 3% 97%  
35 40% 94% Median
36 9% 54%  
37 6% 44%  
38 15% 38%  
39 9% 23%  
40 8% 14%  
41 2% 6%  
42 1.3% 4%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.8%  
33 2% 98.9%  
34 4% 97%  
35 5% 93%  
36 9% 88% Last Result
37 22% 78%  
38 7% 57% Median
39 42% 50%  
40 3% 7%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.7% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 99.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 10% 95%  
24 14% 85%  
25 27% 71% Median
26 5% 44%  
27 30% 39%  
28 7% 9%  
29 2% 2% Last Result
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations