Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 14–20 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.0% 22.5–25.6% 22.1–26.0% 21.7–26.4% 21.0–27.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 21.9% 20.5–23.5% 20.1–23.9% 19.7–24.3% 19.1–25.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.0% 18.6–21.5% 18.2–21.9% 17.8–22.3% 17.2–23.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.6–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.0% 10.9–13.2% 10.6–13.6% 10.3–13.9% 9.8–14.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.1–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 25–29 25–29 24–30 23–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 24 22–26 22–27 21–27 21–28
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 20–25 20–25 19–26
Eesti 200 0 15 13–16 13–17 13–17 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 12 11–14 11–14 10–15 10–15
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0 0 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 16% 97%  
26 12% 81%  
27 14% 69%  
28 29% 55% Median
29 22% 26%  
30 2% 3%  
31 1.1% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.4% 100%  
21 2% 99.5%  
22 10% 97%  
23 10% 87%  
24 31% 77% Median
25 25% 46%  
26 14% 21%  
27 5% 7%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 2% 99.5%  
20 14% 98%  
21 19% 84%  
22 27% 65% Median
23 24% 38%  
24 9% 14%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.3% 99.9%  
13 20% 98.6%  
14 26% 78%  
15 28% 52% Median
16 18% 24%  
17 5% 7%  
18 1.2% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8% Last Result
11 17% 97%  
12 33% 80% Median
13 32% 47%  
14 10% 15%  
15 4% 4%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Median
1 0% 4%  
2 0% 4%  
3 0% 4%  
4 1.2% 4%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 74 100% 71–76 71–76 71–77 70–77
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 72% 50–54 50–55 49–56 48–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 70% 50–54 49–54 49–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 49 28% 47–52 45–52 45–53 45–54
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 46 0.9% 44–49 43–49 43–50 42–51
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 1.4% 44–49 43–50 43–50 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 38–42 37–43 36–43 36–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–41 37–42 36–43 35–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 37 0% 35–39 34–40 34–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–37 32–37 32–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 35 0% 33–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 28 0% 25–29 25–31 24–31 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 1.3% 99.6%  
71 11% 98%  
72 15% 87%  
73 14% 72%  
74 24% 58% Median
75 11% 33%  
76 19% 23%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 1.3% 99.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 24% 96%  
51 16% 72% Majority
52 12% 56% Median
53 30% 44%  
54 7% 14%  
55 2% 7%  
56 4% 4%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.4%  
49 3% 98%  
50 24% 95%  
51 19% 70% Majority
52 12% 52% Median
53 30% 40% Last Result
54 6% 10%  
55 2% 4%  
56 1.2% 1.4%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 5% 99.6%  
46 5% 95%  
47 5% 90%  
48 16% 85%  
49 24% 69%  
50 18% 45% Median
51 6% 28% Majority
52 17% 21%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.6% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 6% 98.8%  
44 8% 93%  
45 13% 85% Last Result
46 23% 72% Median
47 22% 50%  
48 17% 28%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.6% 0.9% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 6% 99.3%  
44 7% 93%  
45 11% 87%  
46 22% 76% Median
47 22% 53%  
48 17% 31%  
49 9% 15%  
50 5% 6%  
51 0.8% 1.4% Majority
52 0.6% 0.6%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.7%  
37 3% 97%  
38 18% 94%  
39 14% 76%  
40 14% 62% Median
41 34% 47%  
42 8% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.7%  
37 3% 97%  
38 18% 94%  
39 14% 76%  
40 14% 62% Median
41 34% 47%  
42 8% 13%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 3% 99.3%  
37 5% 96%  
38 19% 92%  
39 15% 73%  
40 14% 58% Median
41 34% 44%  
42 6% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0% 100% Last Result
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.3%  
34 4% 98%  
35 15% 94%  
36 26% 79% Median
37 19% 52%  
38 16% 33%  
39 8% 17%  
40 8% 9%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.7% 100%  
31 1.4% 99.3%  
32 4% 98%  
33 19% 94%  
34 18% 75% Median
35 30% 58%  
36 15% 28%  
37 10% 13%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.9%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 3% 99.0%  
32 5% 96%  
33 20% 91%  
34 17% 71% Median
35 30% 54%  
36 13% 24% Last Result
37 8% 11%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.5% 100%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 16% 97%  
26 10% 82%  
27 13% 72%  
28 29% 59% Median
29 22% 29%  
30 2% 7%  
31 3% 5%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations