Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–25 May 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.4% 30.5–34.3% 30.0–34.9% 29.6–35.4% 28.7–36.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.9–29.5% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.8–14.2% 10.5–14.6% 9.9–15.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.4–9.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.3% 5.4–7.4% 5.2–7.7% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 34–39 34–40 34–40 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 31 28–34 28–34 27–34 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–16
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.5% 99.7%  
34 11% 98% Last Result
35 13% 87%  
36 18% 73%  
37 19% 55% Median
38 21% 36%  
39 7% 15%  
40 6% 8%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
27 3% 99.6%  
28 7% 97%  
29 8% 90%  
30 25% 82%  
31 15% 57% Median
32 17% 42%  
33 12% 25%  
34 11% 13%  
35 1.5% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.8%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 5% 98.8%  
12 20% 94%  
13 31% 74% Median
14 28% 43%  
15 9% 15%  
16 6% 6%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 99.9%  
6 19% 98%  
7 38% 79% Median
8 30% 41%  
9 9% 11%  
10 1.5% 2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.4% 99.9%  
5 14% 99.5%  
6 30% 86%  
7 34% 56% Median
8 20% 22%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 2% 98%  
5 25% 95%  
6 51% 70% Median
7 15% 19%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 1.0% 2%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–83 78–84 78–85 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 65–70 65–71 64–71 63–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 99.5% 53–59 53–59 53–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 50 40% 47–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 40% 47–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 40% 47–53 47–54 46–54 45–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 40% 47–53 47–53 46–53 44–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0% 42–47 41–47 41–48 39–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0.2% 41–47 41–47 41–48 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 44 0% 41–47 41–48 40–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 38 0% 36–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 20 0% 19–22 19–23 17–23 16–24

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 5% 99.0%  
79 12% 94% Last Result
80 18% 82%  
81 18% 64% Median
82 29% 46%  
83 9% 17%  
84 5% 8%  
85 0.7% 3%  
86 0.5% 2%  
87 0.9% 1.4%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 2% 99.4%  
65 10% 97%  
66 13% 87%  
67 13% 73%  
68 21% 61% Median
69 21% 39%  
70 13% 18%  
71 3% 5%  
72 1.2% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.2%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.5% Majority
52 1.2% 98.8%  
53 11% 98%  
54 12% 86%  
55 24% 74%  
56 10% 50% Median
57 14% 40%  
58 16% 27%  
59 6% 11%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.9% 1.1%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 1.4% 99.1%  
47 13% 98%  
48 10% 84%  
49 15% 74%  
50 19% 59% Median
51 21% 40% Majority
52 7% 19%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 1.4% 99.1%  
47 13% 98%  
48 10% 84%  
49 15% 74%  
50 19% 59% Median
51 21% 40% Majority
52 7% 19%  
53 9% 12%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 4% 99.4%  
47 9% 96%  
48 7% 86%  
49 23% 80%  
50 17% 57% Median
51 11% 40% Majority
52 17% 29%  
53 4% 11% Last Result
54 5% 7%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.8%  
45 0.9% 99.1%  
46 2% 98%  
47 8% 96%  
48 4% 88%  
49 19% 85%  
50 27% 66% Median
51 12% 40% Majority
52 10% 27%  
53 15% 17%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 0.7% 1.0%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 1.0% 99.0%  
41 6% 98%  
42 6% 92%  
43 16% 86%  
44 30% 71% Median
45 13% 41% Last Result
46 10% 28%  
47 15% 18%  
48 2% 3%  
49 1.0% 1.5%  
50 0.4% 0.5%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.2%  
41 14% 98.8%  
42 6% 85%  
43 22% 79%  
44 19% 58% Last Result, Median
45 10% 39%  
46 15% 29%  
47 9% 13%  
48 2% 4%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.4% 0.6%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.8%  
39 1.2% 99.2%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 13% 90%  
43 13% 77%  
44 19% 64% Median
45 17% 45%  
46 11% 28%  
47 11% 16%  
48 4% 5% Last Result
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.6%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 11% 97%  
41 17% 86%  
42 16% 69%  
43 22% 53% Median
44 15% 31%  
45 10% 16%  
46 5% 6% Last Result
47 0.8% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.6%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.4%  
35 5% 97%  
36 14% 92% Last Result
37 11% 78%  
38 20% 67% Median
39 15% 47%  
40 11% 32%  
41 16% 20%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.8% 1.3%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 2% 98.9%  
18 2% 97%  
19 8% 96%  
20 40% 88% Median
21 21% 48%  
22 22% 27%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.8% 0.8%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations