Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25 May–1 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.3% 28.0–33.7% 27.2–34.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.7% 15.3–18.3% 14.9–18.7% 14.5–19.1% 13.9–19.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–38 31–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 26–30 26–30 25–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 8 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 3% 99.7%  
32 3% 97%  
33 11% 94%  
34 20% 83% Last Result
35 29% 62% Median
36 13% 34%  
37 12% 21%  
38 5% 9%  
39 4% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.6%  
24 0.5% 99.3%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 23% 96% Last Result
27 19% 73%  
28 28% 55% Median
29 13% 27%  
30 10% 14%  
31 2% 3%  
32 1.2% 1.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.7%  
15 6% 99.0%  
16 8% 93%  
17 29% 84%  
18 16% 56% Median
19 28% 40% Last Result
20 9% 12%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 21% 98%  
9 54% 77% Median
10 16% 23% Last Result
11 6% 7%  
12 0.7% 1.0%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 19% 96%  
7 24% 77%  
8 43% 53% Median
9 9% 10%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 0% 77%  
2 0% 77%  
3 0% 77%  
4 12% 77%  
5 48% 66% Median
6 16% 17%  
7 1.5% 2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–84 78–85 77–85 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 60–67 60–67 59–67 58–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.7% 55–59 54–59 53–60 52–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 88% 50–56 49–56 49–57 48–58
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 26% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 48 14% 45–51 45–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 14% 45–51 45–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.4% 43–48 43–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0.1% 42–46 41–48 40–48 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 37–43 37–44 36–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–41 36–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–39 35–40 34–40 31–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–29 23–30 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.1% 99.6%  
77 3% 98.6%  
78 11% 95%  
79 27% 84% Last Result
80 21% 58%  
81 4% 37% Median
82 7% 32%  
83 7% 26%  
84 10% 19%  
85 8% 9%  
86 0.5% 1.0%  
87 0.5% 0.5%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.8%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 21% 96% Last Result
61 10% 75%  
62 11% 65%  
63 18% 54% Median
64 19% 36%  
65 3% 17%  
66 3% 14%  
67 9% 11%  
68 1.3% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.1%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.7% Majority
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 3% 98.8%  
54 4% 96%  
55 16% 92%  
56 14% 76%  
57 19% 62%  
58 28% 42% Median
59 10% 15%  
60 2% 4%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 2% 99.8%  
49 5% 98%  
50 6% 93%  
51 9% 88% Majority
52 21% 79%  
53 21% 58% Last Result, Median
54 16% 37%  
55 9% 22%  
56 8% 13%  
57 4% 4%  
58 0.4% 0.7%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 3% 97%  
47 5% 94%  
48 20% 89%  
49 17% 69%  
50 26% 52%  
51 12% 26% Median, Majority
52 9% 15%  
53 4% 5%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 8% 96%  
46 9% 88%  
47 14% 79%  
48 27% 65%  
49 12% 37% Median
50 12% 25%  
51 11% 14% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 1.3% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 8% 96%  
46 9% 88%  
47 14% 79%  
48 27% 65%  
49 12% 37% Median
50 12% 25%  
51 11% 14% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.4%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 12% 97%  
44 9% 85%  
45 36% 76% Last Result
46 10% 40% Median
47 6% 30%  
48 19% 23%  
49 3% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 4% 97%  
42 7% 94%  
43 32% 86%  
44 17% 54% Last Result, Median
45 12% 37%  
46 16% 25%  
47 4% 9%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.9% 1.0%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 3% 99.6%  
37 7% 97%  
38 3% 89%  
39 9% 87%  
40 22% 78%  
41 27% 56%  
42 9% 28% Median
43 10% 19%  
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 1.2% 1.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.9%  
34 2% 98.8%  
35 1.3% 97%  
36 10% 96%  
37 12% 86%  
38 6% 75%  
39 28% 69%  
40 20% 41% Median
41 11% 21%  
42 6% 10%  
43 2% 4%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.3% 99.4%  
33 0.4% 99.1%  
34 2% 98.7%  
35 24% 96%  
36 17% 72% Last Result
37 29% 55% Median
38 7% 25%  
39 11% 18%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.6%  
24 2% 97%  
25 14% 95%  
26 23% 81%  
27 15% 58% Median
28 27% 42%  
29 11% 16% Last Result
30 3% 5%  
31 0.9% 2%  
32 0.9% 0.9%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations