Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–8 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.3% 28.5–32.2% 28.0–32.8% 27.5–33.2% 26.7–34.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 33–39 32–40 32–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 23 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–28
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.7% 99.8%  
32 8% 99.0%  
33 4% 91%  
34 10% 87% Last Result
35 21% 77%  
36 13% 56% Median
37 11% 43%  
38 20% 32%  
39 6% 12%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.9% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 0.5% 99.5%  
23 4% 99.0%  
24 16% 95%  
25 15% 79%  
26 10% 64% Last Result
27 29% 54% Median
28 11% 24%  
29 10% 13%  
30 1.0% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
20 5% 98%  
21 22% 94%  
22 16% 72%  
23 24% 56% Median
24 16% 32%  
25 8% 16%  
26 5% 8%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 9% 98%  
7 56% 89% Median
8 14% 33%  
9 17% 19%  
10 1.4% 2% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 4% 99.8%  
6 27% 95%  
7 30% 68% Median
8 30% 39%  
9 8% 9%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 0% 25%  
4 3% 25%  
5 19% 22%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0.4% 1.0%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 86 100% 82–88 81–88 80–89 79–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 59–65 58–66 58–66 56–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–63 57–64 56–64 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 59 100% 56–62 55–63 55–63 53–64
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 50% 48–54 47–55 46–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 49 30% 46–52 45–53 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 45 2% 42–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 2% 42–48 41–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0% 40–46 39–47 39–48 38–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 35–40 34–41 32–43 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–38 32–39 31–39 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 30 0% 28–33 27–33 27–34 25–35

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.6% Last Result
80 2% 98.8%  
81 3% 96%  
82 11% 93%  
83 7% 82%  
84 9% 76%  
85 11% 67%  
86 27% 55% Median
87 12% 28%  
88 12% 16%  
89 3% 4%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.7%  
57 1.3% 99.4%  
58 6% 98%  
59 8% 92%  
60 10% 85% Last Result
61 11% 74%  
62 16% 63%  
63 9% 47% Median
64 9% 38%  
65 23% 29%  
66 5% 7%  
67 0.2% 2%  
68 1.3% 1.5%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 1.3% 99.7%  
56 3% 98%  
57 7% 95%  
58 11% 88%  
59 20% 77% Median
60 17% 57%  
61 12% 40%  
62 11% 28%  
63 12% 17%  
64 4% 6%  
65 0.7% 2% Last Result
66 0.8% 0.9%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
54 1.0% 98.7%  
55 7% 98%  
56 6% 90%  
57 11% 84%  
58 17% 73%  
59 21% 56% Median
60 12% 36%  
61 10% 24%  
62 7% 14%  
63 5% 7%  
64 1.3% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.4%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 4% 99.5%  
47 4% 96%  
48 21% 92%  
49 7% 71%  
50 14% 63% Median
51 19% 50% Majority
52 10% 30%  
53 10% 20%  
54 5% 11%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.9% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.9%  
44 2% 99.1%  
45 2% 97% Last Result
46 7% 95%  
47 7% 88%  
48 26% 81%  
49 8% 55%  
50 18% 47% Median
51 17% 30% Majority
52 7% 13%  
53 4% 6%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 6% 98%  
42 13% 92%  
43 6% 79% Median
44 21% 73%  
45 24% 52%  
46 6% 29%  
47 11% 23%  
48 5% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.3% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 6% 98%  
42 13% 92%  
43 6% 79% Median
44 21% 73%  
45 24% 52%  
46 6% 29%  
47 11% 23%  
48 5% 12%  
49 3% 6%  
50 1.1% 3%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 6% 99.0%  
40 4% 93%  
41 9% 89%  
42 18% 81%  
43 8% 62% Median
44 18% 54% Last Result
45 22% 36%  
46 4% 14%  
47 6% 10%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.6%  
33 1.5% 97%  
34 5% 96%  
35 17% 90%  
36 11% 73% Median
37 15% 63%  
38 20% 47%  
39 11% 28%  
40 8% 17%  
41 4% 9%  
42 2% 5%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 1.0% 99.6%  
31 3% 98.6%  
32 10% 96%  
33 13% 86%  
34 25% 72% Median
35 9% 47%  
36 6% 38%  
37 14% 32%  
38 10% 17%  
39 6% 8%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 1.1% 1.4%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.6%  
30 3% 98%  
31 5% 95%  
32 18% 90%  
33 16% 72%  
34 30% 56% Median
35 9% 26%  
36 5% 17% Last Result
37 6% 12%  
38 6% 6%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.7% 99.9%  
26 1.3% 99.2%  
27 3% 98%  
28 22% 95%  
29 9% 73% Last Result
30 21% 64% Median
31 17% 43%  
32 11% 26%  
33 10% 15%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations