Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 9–15 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.3% 31.4–35.2% 30.9–35.8% 30.4–36.2% 29.5–37.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 27.2% 25.4–29.1% 25.0–29.6% 24.5–30.0% 23.7–30.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.2% 14.0–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.1% 8.0–10.3% 7.7–10.7% 7.4–11.0% 7.0–11.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.1–10.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–40 35–40 35–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 31 28–32 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–19 15–19 14–20 13–21
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 6–9 6–9 6–9 6–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 98.8% Last Result
35 5% 98%  
36 14% 93%  
37 24% 79%  
38 21% 55% Median
39 12% 34%  
40 18% 22%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
27 6% 98.9%  
28 4% 93%  
29 12% 89%  
30 23% 77%  
31 38% 53% Median
32 10% 15%  
33 3% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 1.1% 1.1%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 27% 97%  
16 24% 70% Median
17 17% 46%  
18 18% 29%  
19 8% 11% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.5%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 15% 99.3%  
8 32% 85%  
9 34% 52% Median
10 14% 19%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 16% 99.5%  
7 31% 83%  
8 26% 52% Median
9 25% 26%  
10 1.3% 1.4% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 85 100% 83–86 83–87 83–87 81–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 66–71 65–71 65–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 99.0% 52–57 52–57 51–58 50–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 99.0% 52–57 52–57 51–58 50–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 4% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 4% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 0.3% 43–47 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.3% 43–47 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 0.3% 43–47 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–40 35–40 35–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 38 0% 36–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 22–27 22–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.4% 99.9%  
82 2% 99.5%  
83 21% 98%  
84 18% 77%  
85 24% 58% Median
86 26% 35%  
87 7% 9%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100% Last Result
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 1.2% 99.4%  
65 3% 98%  
66 8% 95%  
67 16% 87%  
68 34% 70%  
69 15% 37% Median
70 9% 21%  
71 11% 12%  
72 1.0% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.8% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.0% Majority
52 18% 97%  
53 7% 79% Last Result
54 23% 72% Median
55 22% 49%  
56 13% 27%  
57 10% 13%  
58 2% 4%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.8% 99.8%  
51 2% 99.0% Majority
52 18% 97%  
53 7% 79%  
54 23% 72% Median
55 22% 49%  
56 13% 27%  
57 10% 14%  
58 2% 4%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.7%  
44 4% 98%  
45 12% 95% Last Result
46 36% 82%  
47 12% 46% Median
48 11% 34%  
49 14% 23%  
50 5% 9%  
51 4% 4% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.8%  
44 4% 98%  
45 12% 95%  
46 36% 82%  
47 12% 46% Median
48 11% 34%  
49 14% 23%  
50 5% 9%  
51 4% 4% Majority
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 6% 98%  
43 5% 92%  
44 16% 87%  
45 15% 71%  
46 25% 56% Median
47 22% 32%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 6% 98%  
43 5% 92%  
44 16% 87%  
45 15% 71%  
46 25% 56% Median
47 22% 32%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.8%  
42 6% 98%  
43 5% 92%  
44 16% 87% Last Result
45 15% 71%  
46 25% 56% Median
47 22% 32%  
48 7% 10%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.1% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 98.8%  
35 5% 98%  
36 14% 93%  
37 24% 79%  
38 21% 55% Median
39 12% 34%  
40 18% 22%  
41 2% 4%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 9% 92%  
37 22% 83%  
38 24% 60%  
39 10% 36% Median
40 22% 27%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.9% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 5% 96%  
36 9% 91% Last Result
37 23% 83%  
38 24% 60%  
39 10% 36% Median
40 22% 26%  
41 2% 4%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.3%  
22 16% 98%  
23 14% 83%  
24 29% 68% Median
25 19% 39%  
26 14% 21%  
27 4% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.9% 0.9% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations