Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–22 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.2% 28.4–32.1% 27.9–32.6% 27.4–33.1% 26.6–34.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.2% 8.1–10.5% 7.8–10.8% 7.6–11.2% 7.1–11.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–36 31–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 8% 97%  
32 14% 89%  
33 24% 75%  
34 15% 51% Last Result, Median
35 19% 36%  
36 11% 17%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 4% 99.3%  
26 9% 96% Last Result
27 16% 87%  
28 18% 71%  
29 21% 53% Median
30 21% 33%  
31 7% 11%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.1% 1.4%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 6% 98.7%  
15 19% 92%  
16 26% 74% Median
17 26% 48%  
18 15% 22%  
19 5% 7% Last Result
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 8% 99.3%  
8 32% 92%  
9 38% 60% Median
10 16% 22% Last Result
11 5% 6%  
12 0.9% 1.0%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.2% 100%  
7 9% 98.8%  
8 30% 90%  
9 36% 60% Median
10 19% 23%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100%  
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 0% 89%  
4 7% 89%  
5 52% 81% Median
6 25% 30%  
7 4% 5%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 79 100% 76–82 76–83 75–83 74–85
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 60–65 59–66 58–67 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98% 52–57 52–58 51–59 49–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 38% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 42% 48–53 47–54 46–54 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 5% 45–50 44–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 5% 45–50 44–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.5% 42–47 42–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0% 39–44 38–45 38–46 36–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–41 35–42 33–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–40 34–41 34–41 33–43
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–27 23–28 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.4%  
76 7% 96%  
77 15% 89%  
78 24% 74%  
79 21% 50% Last Result, Median
80 12% 29%  
81 7% 17%  
82 4% 10%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.5% 2%  
85 0.7% 0.8%  
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.6% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.3%  
59 5% 97%  
60 13% 92% Last Result
61 13% 80%  
62 21% 66%  
63 20% 45% Median
64 11% 25%  
65 7% 14%  
66 5% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.4% 0.9%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.8%  
50 1.5% 99.5%  
51 3% 98% Majority
52 6% 95%  
53 15% 89%  
54 19% 74%  
55 16% 55% Median
56 17% 39%  
57 13% 23%  
58 7% 10%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.6%  
45 1.0% 99.3%  
46 4% 98%  
47 9% 94%  
48 12% 85%  
49 17% 73%  
50 18% 56% Median
51 23% 38% Majority
52 8% 15%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 5% 97%  
48 15% 92%  
49 17% 77%  
50 18% 60% Median
51 16% 42% Majority
52 13% 27%  
53 8% 14% Last Result
54 4% 6%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.4%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 11% 91%  
46 15% 80%  
47 21% 66%  
48 16% 45% Median
49 13% 28%  
50 10% 15%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.0% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.4%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 95%  
45 11% 91%  
46 15% 80%  
47 21% 66%  
48 16% 45% Median
49 13% 28%  
50 10% 15%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.0% 1.4%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 8% 97%  
43 12% 89%  
44 17% 77%  
45 16% 59% Last Result, Median
46 24% 43%  
47 10% 20%  
48 4% 10%  
49 4% 5%  
50 0.8% 1.3%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 4% 98%  
40 8% 94%  
41 18% 86%  
42 20% 69%  
43 19% 49% Median
44 12% 30% Last Result
45 12% 18%  
46 4% 6%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.7% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 1.3% 99.3%  
38 3% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 11% 88%  
41 15% 77%  
42 18% 63%  
43 17% 45% Median
44 18% 28%  
45 5% 9%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.7% 0.9%  
48 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 2% 97%  
35 3% 95%  
36 9% 92%  
37 14% 83%  
38 18% 68%  
39 18% 50% Median
40 16% 33%  
41 11% 17%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.7%  
34 6% 98%  
35 10% 93%  
36 15% 83% Last Result
37 20% 68%  
38 18% 48% Median
39 19% 30%  
40 6% 11%  
41 4% 5%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 3% 99.2%  
23 13% 96%  
24 14% 83%  
25 29% 69% Median
26 17% 40%  
27 13% 23%  
28 7% 10%  
29 2% 3% Last Result
30 0.6% 0.7%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations