Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 1–30 June 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.9% 26.3–29.6% 25.9–30.0% 25.5–30.5% 24.8–31.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.9% 17.6–20.4% 17.2–20.8% 16.9–21.2% 16.2–21.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.9% 17.6–20.4% 17.2–20.8% 16.9–21.2% 16.2–21.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.9% 11.8–14.2% 11.5–14.6% 11.2–14.9% 10.7–15.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.9% 8.9–11.1% 8.6–11.4% 8.4–11.7% 7.9–12.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–12 8–12 8–13
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.8%  
29 3% 99.3%  
30 7% 96%  
31 20% 89%  
32 13% 69%  
33 24% 56% Median
34 15% 32% Last Result
35 11% 17%  
36 4% 7%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 10% 96%  
20 20% 86%  
21 33% 66% Median
22 15% 32%  
23 12% 17%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.2% 1.5%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 12% 97% Last Result
20 22% 85%  
21 23% 63% Median
22 21% 41%  
23 14% 19%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.3% 1.5%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.3% 100%  
11 3% 99.7%  
12 15% 97%  
13 29% 82%  
14 28% 52% Median
15 17% 24%  
16 6% 8%  
17 1.1% 1.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 5% 99.7%  
9 24% 95%  
10 37% 71% Last Result, Median
11 24% 34%  
12 9% 10%  
13 1.1% 1.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 0% 48%  
4 7% 48%  
5 36% 41%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 75 100% 71–78 71–79 70–79 69–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.8% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 94% 51–57 50–58 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 91% 51–57 50–57 49–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 45 0.4% 42–48 41–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.4% 42–48 41–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 45 0.2% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–45 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 40–45 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–38 31–38 31–39 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 30–37 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 28–34 28–35 27–36

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 2% 99.3%  
71 7% 97%  
72 11% 90%  
73 12% 79%  
74 12% 67%  
75 12% 55% Median
76 12% 43%  
77 14% 31%  
78 12% 17%  
79 4% 5% Last Result
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.9% 99.8% Majority
52 3% 98.9%  
53 6% 96%  
54 10% 90% Median
55 13% 79%  
56 21% 67%  
57 19% 45%  
58 14% 26%  
59 8% 12%  
60 4% 5%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.3% 99.6%  
50 4% 98%  
51 11% 94% Majority
52 12% 83%  
53 18% 71% Last Result
54 16% 53% Median
55 12% 37%  
56 12% 25%  
57 7% 13%  
58 4% 5%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 2% 99.5%  
50 7% 97%  
51 9% 91% Majority
52 13% 82%  
53 10% 69%  
54 21% 58% Median
55 14% 37%  
56 11% 23%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 4%  
59 1.0% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 6% 95%  
43 12% 89% Median
44 15% 77%  
45 17% 62%  
46 14% 45%  
47 18% 31%  
48 7% 13%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.7%  
42 6% 95%  
43 12% 89% Median
44 15% 77%  
45 17% 62%  
46 14% 45%  
47 18% 31%  
48 7% 13%  
49 5% 7%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.7% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 6% 97%  
42 9% 91% Median
43 12% 82%  
44 19% 70%  
45 20% 52%  
46 10% 32%  
47 13% 22%  
48 5% 8%  
49 3% 3%  
50 0.8% 0.9%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.9% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.8%  
40 8% 95%  
41 15% 88%  
42 18% 73%  
43 19% 55% Median
44 16% 36% Last Result
45 11% 20%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.1% 1.3%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 6% 97%  
40 12% 91%  
41 17% 79%  
42 21% 62% Median
43 13% 41%  
44 15% 28%  
45 8% 13% Last Result
46 3% 4%  
47 1.4% 2%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.6% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 7% 93%  
33 13% 86% Median
34 13% 73%  
35 15% 60%  
36 18% 46%  
37 9% 27%  
38 14% 18%  
39 3% 5%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.7% 99.9%  
29 3% 99.2%  
30 7% 96%  
31 13% 89% Median
32 12% 76%  
33 13% 64%  
34 12% 52%  
35 16% 39%  
36 13% 23%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.9% 1.1%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.8%  
28 5% 98.7%  
29 10% 94%  
30 20% 84%  
31 26% 64% Median
32 18% 38%  
33 10% 21%  
34 7% 10%  
35 3% 4%  
36 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.8%  
28 4% 98.6%  
29 12% 94% Last Result
30 18% 82%  
31 22% 64% Median
32 17% 43%  
33 16% 26%  
34 7% 10%  
35 2% 4%  
36 1.2% 1.3%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations