Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 29–6 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 32.1% | 30.3–34.0% | 29.7–34.6% | 29.3–35.1% | 28.4–36.0% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 14.8% | 13.4–16.3% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.7–17.1% | 12.1–17.9% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.2% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.1–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.6–11.2% | 7.1–11.8% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 37 | 35–39 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–30 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 5 | 5–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 34 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 35 | 12% | 93% | |
| 36 | 20% | 81% | |
| 37 | 28% | 61% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 32% | |
| 39 | 10% | 19% | |
| 40 | 6% | 9% | |
| 41 | 2% | 3% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 9% | 95% | |
| 24 | 15% | 86% | |
| 25 | 29% | 71% | Median |
| 26 | 22% | 41% | Last Result |
| 27 | 14% | 20% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 7% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 18% | 91% | |
| 15 | 34% | 73% | Median |
| 16 | 21% | 39% | |
| 17 | 14% | 18% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 17% | 97% | |
| 9 | 32% | 80% | Median |
| 10 | 33% | 48% | |
| 11 | 13% | 15% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 31% | 94% | |
| 9 | 40% | 63% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 23% | Last Result |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 4% | 95% | |
| 5 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 36% | 47% | |
| 7 | 10% | 11% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 77 | 100% | 75–80 | 75–81 | 74–82 | 73–84 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 62 | 100% | 60–65 | 59–65 | 58–66 | 57–68 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 57 | 99.9% | 55–60 | 55–61 | 54–62 | 52–62 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 52 | 84% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 49–56 | 47–58 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 51 | 65% | 49–54 | 48–54 | 47–55 | 45–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 51 | 65% | 49–54 | 48–54 | 47–55 | 45–56 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 46 | 1.1% | 43–48 | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 46 | 0.9% | 43–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 | 40–51 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 42 | 0% | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 36–47 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 40 | 0% | 38–43 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 36–46 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 39 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 33–44 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 34 | 0% | 32–36 | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 24 | 0% | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–29 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 75 | 9% | 96% | |
| 76 | 19% | 87% | |
| 77 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 78 | 22% | 47% | |
| 79 | 12% | 24% | Last Result |
| 80 | 6% | 12% | |
| 81 | 2% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 11% | 92% | Last Result |
| 61 | 19% | 81% | |
| 62 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 63 | 20% | 43% | |
| 64 | 13% | 24% | |
| 65 | 6% | 11% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 2% | 98% | |
| 55 | 6% | 96% | |
| 56 | 18% | 90% | |
| 57 | 24% | 72% | Median |
| 58 | 25% | 48% | |
| 59 | 8% | 22% | |
| 60 | 5% | 14% | |
| 61 | 6% | 9% | |
| 62 | 3% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 11% | 95% | |
| 51 | 23% | 84% | Majority |
| 52 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 53 | 17% | 39% | Last Result |
| 54 | 6% | 22% | |
| 55 | 8% | 15% | |
| 56 | 5% | 7% | |
| 57 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 48 | 5% | 97% | |
| 49 | 9% | 92% | |
| 50 | 18% | 83% | |
| 51 | 26% | 65% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 18% | 39% | |
| 53 | 11% | 21% | |
| 54 | 6% | 10% | |
| 55 | 3% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 48 | 5% | 97% | |
| 49 | 9% | 92% | |
| 50 | 18% | 83% | |
| 51 | 26% | 65% | Median, Majority |
| 52 | 18% | 39% | |
| 53 | 11% | 21% | |
| 54 | 6% | 10% | |
| 55 | 3% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 0.9% | Last Result |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 7% | 97% | |
| 44 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 45 | 23% | 79% | |
| 46 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 31% | |
| 48 | 10% | 18% | |
| 49 | 5% | 8% | |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 7% | 96% | |
| 44 | 11% | 88% | |
| 45 | 25% | 78% | Median |
| 46 | 17% | 53% | |
| 47 | 16% | 36% | |
| 48 | 14% | 19% | |
| 49 | 4% | 6% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 5% | 92% | |
| 41 | 20% | 87% | |
| 42 | 25% | 67% | Median |
| 43 | 22% | 43% | |
| 44 | 9% | 21% | |
| 45 | 6% | 12% | |
| 46 | 5% | 6% | Last Result |
| 47 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 38 | 7% | 95% | |
| 39 | 17% | 88% | |
| 40 | 26% | 71% | Median |
| 41 | 15% | 45% | |
| 42 | 17% | 30% | |
| 43 | 9% | 13% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 2% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 36 | 4% | 96% | |
| 37 | 8% | 92% | |
| 38 | 13% | 84% | |
| 39 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 40 | 23% | 49% | |
| 41 | 14% | 26% | |
| 42 | 7% | 12% | |
| 43 | 3% | 5% | |
| 44 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 31 | 6% | 98% | |
| 32 | 8% | 92% | |
| 33 | 17% | 83% | |
| 34 | 30% | 66% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 36% | |
| 36 | 13% | 20% | Last Result |
| 37 | 4% | 7% | |
| 38 | 2% | 3% | |
| 39 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 7% | 96% | |
| 23 | 22% | 89% | |
| 24 | 30% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 37% | |
| 26 | 9% | 16% | |
| 27 | 4% | 6% | |
| 28 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 0.7% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 29–6 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%