Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 7–13 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.3% 30.4–34.2% 29.9–34.8% 29.5–35.3% 28.6–36.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.8% 14.4–17.4% 14.0–17.8% 13.7–18.2% 13.0–19.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.2% 9.1–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.5–12.2% 8.0–12.9%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 36–41 35–42 35–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 9–12 8–13 8–14
Eesti 200 0 7 6–8 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.2% Last Result
35 4% 98%  
36 9% 93%  
37 14% 84%  
38 18% 71%  
39 19% 53% Median
40 21% 34%  
41 8% 13%  
42 3% 5%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.0%  
24 8% 96%  
25 16% 88%  
26 28% 72% Last Result, Median
27 17% 44%  
28 15% 27%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 1.1% 1.4%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 9% 97%  
16 20% 88%  
17 26% 68% Median
18 23% 42%  
19 14% 19% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 1.1% 1.2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 4% 99.7%  
9 18% 96%  
10 31% 78% Last Result, Median
11 29% 47%  
12 15% 18%  
13 3% 4%  
14 0.6% 0.7%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 17% 98%  
7 44% 81% Median
8 27% 37%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.4% 1.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Median
1 0% 17%  
2 0% 17%  
3 0% 17%  
4 5% 17%  
5 11% 12%  
6 0.8% 0.8%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 79–85 78–85 77–86 75–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 62–68 61–68 60–69 59–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.7% 54–59 53–60 52–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 98% 53–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 50 38% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 38% 47–52 46–53 46–54 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 27% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.5% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–40 34–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.7% 99.1%  
77 3% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 6% 92% Last Result
80 7% 86%  
81 10% 79%  
82 16% 69% Median
83 20% 53%  
84 21% 33%  
85 9% 12%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.5% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.2% 99.6%  
60 2% 98% Last Result
61 5% 97%  
62 5% 92%  
63 11% 87%  
64 15% 76%  
65 17% 61% Median
66 20% 44%  
67 12% 24%  
68 8% 12%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.2% 1.5%  
71 0.3% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7% Majority
52 2% 98.9%  
53 5% 97%  
54 7% 92%  
55 13% 85%  
56 21% 71% Median
57 16% 51%  
58 20% 35%  
59 8% 15%  
60 4% 7%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.8% 1.0%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.3% 99.7%  
51 2% 98% Majority
52 6% 96%  
53 8% 91% Last Result
54 10% 83%  
55 14% 73%  
56 21% 59% Median
57 13% 38%  
58 16% 25%  
59 6% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.0%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.3%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 94%  
48 11% 84%  
49 16% 73% Median
50 19% 57%  
51 20% 38% Majority
52 9% 19%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 1.3% 99.3%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 94%  
48 11% 84%  
49 16% 73% Median
50 19% 57%  
51 20% 38% Majority
52 9% 19%  
53 6% 10%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.1% Last Result
45 4% 97%  
46 6% 94%  
47 13% 87%  
48 14% 74%  
49 16% 60% Median
50 17% 44%  
51 18% 27% Majority
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.1%  
41 6% 97%  
42 6% 92%  
43 18% 86% Median
44 23% 68%  
45 14% 45%  
46 14% 30%  
47 10% 17%  
48 3% 7%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.1%  
40 3% 97%  
41 11% 94%  
42 9% 83%  
43 19% 74% Median
44 24% 55%  
45 13% 31% Last Result
46 8% 18%  
47 8% 10%  
48 1.4% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.1%  
36 5% 97%  
37 11% 92%  
38 16% 81%  
39 18% 65% Median
40 21% 47%  
41 11% 25%  
42 6% 15%  
43 5% 8%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.3% 99.9%  
33 1.3% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 10% 94%  
36 15% 84% Median
37 18% 70%  
38 18% 51%  
39 15% 33%  
40 9% 18%  
41 5% 9%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.6%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 6% 95%  
35 13% 89%  
36 19% 76% Last Result, Median
37 20% 57%  
38 16% 37%  
39 13% 21%  
40 6% 8%  
41 1.4% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.1%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 0.9% 99.8%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 8% 96%  
26 14% 88%  
27 19% 75% Median
28 26% 56%  
29 15% 30% Last Result
30 10% 15%  
31 4% 5%  
32 1.0% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations