Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.0% 32.1–36.0% 31.6–36.5% 31.1–37.0% 30.2–38.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 23.5% 21.8–25.3% 21.4–25.8% 21.0–26.2% 20.2–27.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.8% 15.4–18.4% 15.0–18.9% 14.6–19.3% 13.9–20.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–42 36–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
35 3% 98.9%  
36 5% 96%  
37 9% 91%  
38 25% 82%  
39 18% 57% Median
40 19% 39%  
41 9% 20%  
42 5% 10%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.8% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 0.5%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 7% 97%  
24 14% 90%  
25 17% 76%  
26 28% 59% Last Result, Median
27 19% 31%  
28 8% 12%  
29 4% 5%  
30 0.8% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 6% 99.0%  
16 15% 93%  
17 30% 78% Median
18 21% 49%  
19 18% 27% Last Result
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.7% 0.7%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 17% 97%  
8 47% 80% Median
9 23% 33%  
10 9% 10% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0% 99.6%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0.9% 99.6%  
5 16% 98.7%  
6 45% 83% Median
7 28% 38%  
8 9% 10%  
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 16% 82%  
5 45% 66% Median
6 19% 21%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 82 100% 80–86 79–87 79–87 78–89
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 65 100% 62–68 61–69 61–70 60–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–63 58–64 57–65 55–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.8% 54–59 53–61 53–61 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 51 70% 48–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 70% 48–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 7% 45–50 44–51 43–52 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 6% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0.1% 41–46 40–47 40–47 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–47 37–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–41 34–41 33–42 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–29 22–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 1.4% 99.8%  
79 5% 98% Last Result
80 11% 94%  
81 19% 82%  
82 26% 63% Median
83 14% 37%  
84 4% 22%  
85 7% 18%  
86 4% 11%  
87 5% 6%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 1.4% 99.6% Last Result
61 4% 98%  
62 9% 94%  
63 13% 86%  
64 18% 72%  
65 21% 54% Median
66 15% 33%  
67 7% 17%  
68 5% 10%  
69 3% 6%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.8% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.3%  
57 3% 98%  
58 6% 95%  
59 15% 89%  
60 18% 74%  
61 22% 56% Median
62 16% 34%  
63 9% 18%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 99.4%  
53 4% 98% Last Result
54 10% 94%  
55 17% 84%  
56 17% 67% Median
57 17% 49%  
58 12% 32%  
59 10% 20%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 7% 96%  
49 6% 89%  
50 13% 84%  
51 26% 70% Majority
52 14% 45% Median
53 16% 31%  
54 7% 15%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.3% 2% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 7% 96%  
49 6% 89%  
50 13% 84%  
51 26% 70% Majority
52 14% 45% Median
53 16% 31%  
54 7% 15%  
55 5% 7%  
56 1.3% 2% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.4%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 5% 97%  
45 8% 92%  
46 14% 83%  
47 21% 70%  
48 14% 49% Median
49 19% 35%  
50 9% 15%  
51 4% 7% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 5% 97% Last Result
45 9% 92%  
46 22% 83%  
47 16% 60% Median
48 20% 44%  
49 9% 23%  
50 8% 15%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.5%  
40 6% 98%  
41 8% 92%  
42 19% 83%  
43 17% 64% Median
44 23% 47%  
45 10% 25% Last Result
46 8% 15%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.9% 1.0%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 3% 98%  
40 7% 95%  
41 8% 87%  
42 12% 79%  
43 24% 68%  
44 17% 43% Median
45 13% 26%  
46 8% 13% Last Result
47 4% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.6%  
33 2% 99.0%  
34 6% 97%  
35 5% 91%  
36 8% 86%  
37 14% 78%  
38 18% 65%  
39 18% 47% Median
40 18% 29%  
41 7% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.2% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 3% 99.4%  
31 6% 97%  
32 12% 91%  
33 18% 79%  
34 25% 61% Median
35 18% 36%  
36 10% 18% Last Result
37 5% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.7%  
23 5% 98%  
24 15% 93%  
25 25% 78% Median
26 18% 53%  
27 19% 35%  
28 11% 16%  
29 4% 5% Last Result
30 1.4% 2%  
31 0.4% 0.5%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations