Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 16–22 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 30.9% 29.3–32.6% 28.8–33.1% 28.4–33.5% 27.7–34.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.0% 16.7–19.4% 16.3–19.8% 16.0–20.2% 15.3–20.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.1% 14.4–19.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.0% 12.8–15.3% 12.4–15.7% 12.2–16.0% 11.6–16.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.1% 7.8–10.4% 7.5–10.7% 7.1–11.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.2–6.9% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.4% 4.5–7.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.2% 0.1–0.5% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.0–0.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–38 33–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–21 17–22 16–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Eesti 200 0 14 13–16 13–16 12–17 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 5–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 4% 99.4%  
33 7% 95%  
34 18% 89% Last Result
35 25% 70% Median
36 19% 45%  
37 15% 26%  
38 7% 11%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.9% 1.0%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 6% 98%  
18 18% 91%  
19 29% 74% Last Result, Median
20 29% 45%  
21 11% 16%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.8% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 10% 98%  
17 24% 88%  
18 29% 64% Median
19 21% 35%  
20 11% 14%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.4% 100%  
12 4% 99.6%  
13 17% 96%  
14 35% 79% Median
15 26% 44%  
16 13% 17%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 8% 99.5%  
8 33% 91%  
9 36% 58% Median
10 18% 22% Last Result
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 0% 94%  
2 0% 94%  
3 0% 94%  
4 4% 94%  
5 51% 90% Median
6 33% 39%  
7 6% 6%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 73 100% 70–75 70–76 70–77 69–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–62 57–63 56–63 55–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 99.3% 52–57 52–58 51–58 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 95% 51–56 51–57 50–57 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 49 27% 47–51 46–52 46–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 27% 47–51 46–52 46–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0.1% 42–46 41–47 41–48 40–49
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–45 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 38–43 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 37 0% 35–40 35–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–35 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 27 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.6%  
70 9% 98%  
71 14% 89%  
72 20% 75% Median
73 28% 55%  
74 11% 27%  
75 11% 17%  
76 2% 6%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.8% 1.4%  
79 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 2% 99.2%  
57 7% 97%  
58 9% 90%  
59 23% 81% Median
60 24% 58%  
61 19% 34%  
62 8% 15%  
63 6% 7%  
64 1.1% 1.5%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.6% 99.9%  
51 4% 99.3% Majority
52 8% 96%  
53 12% 88% Last Result
54 19% 76% Median
55 27% 57%  
56 16% 30%  
57 7% 14%  
58 5% 8%  
59 2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 0.6% 99.8%  
50 4% 99.2%  
51 9% 95% Majority
52 17% 86%  
53 27% 69% Median
54 14% 43%  
55 13% 28%  
56 9% 15%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 3% 98%  
47 14% 95%  
48 13% 81%  
49 20% 68% Median
50 22% 48%  
51 18% 27% Majority
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 3% 98%  
47 14% 95%  
48 13% 81%  
49 20% 68% Median
50 22% 48%  
51 18% 27% Majority
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 1.4% 99.8%  
41 5% 98%  
42 13% 93%  
43 14% 80%  
44 22% 66% Last Result, Median
45 22% 43%  
46 12% 21%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.6%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 3% 97%  
40 8% 95%  
41 14% 87%  
42 20% 72% Median
43 27% 52%  
44 14% 25%  
45 7% 11%  
46 3% 4%  
47 0.8% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 0.7% 99.2%  
37 4% 98%  
38 8% 95%  
39 13% 87%  
40 22% 74% Median
41 21% 52%  
42 18% 31%  
43 9% 13%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 1.2% 99.9%  
34 3% 98.7%  
35 11% 96%  
36 16% 85%  
37 24% 68% Median
38 21% 45%  
39 14% 24%  
40 7% 10%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 1.1% 99.3%  
28 2% 98%  
29 6% 97%  
30 9% 90%  
31 18% 81%  
32 29% 63% Median
33 18% 35%  
34 10% 17%  
35 6% 7%  
36 0.9% 1.2%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 1.2% 99.9%  
25 4% 98.7%  
26 9% 94%  
27 17% 85%  
28 33% 69% Median
29 22% 35% Last Result
30 8% 13%  
31 4% 5%  
32 1.4% 2%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.1% 99.7%  
24 8% 98.6%  
25 12% 91%  
26 20% 79%  
27 29% 59% Median
28 16% 30%  
29 9% 14%  
30 4% 4%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations