Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 21–28 July 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.2% 29.4–33.1% 28.9–33.7% 28.4–34.1% 27.5–35.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.1% 22.4–25.9% 21.9–26.4% 21.6–26.9% 20.8–27.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.6% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.7% 16.3–21.1% 15.6–21.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 35 33–37 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–28 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 18–21 17–22 17–22 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.6%  
32 4% 98%  
33 13% 94%  
34 13% 81% Last Result
35 29% 68% Median
36 13% 40%  
37 17% 26%  
38 5% 9%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.1%  
24 11% 96%  
25 20% 85%  
26 21% 65% Last Result, Median
27 17% 44%  
28 18% 27%  
29 6% 9%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 6% 98.8%  
18 16% 93%  
19 27% 77% Last Result, Median
20 24% 49%  
21 16% 25%  
22 7% 9%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.4% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 4% 99.9%  
7 21% 96%  
8 38% 75% Median
9 27% 36%  
10 8% 10% Last Result
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.5%  
2 0% 99.5%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 1.4% 99.5%  
5 26% 98%  
6 37% 72% Median
7 27% 35%  
8 7% 7%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 4% 98%  
5 29% 95%  
6 50% 65% Median
7 13% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 79–83 78–84 78–84 77–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 59–64 58–64 58–65 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 58–63 57–64 57–64 55–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 98.8% 52–57 51–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 52 69% 49–54 48–55 48–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 49 23% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 23% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 46 0.9% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–47 40–47 39–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 41 0% 39–43 38–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 38–43 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–37 32–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–31 24–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.9% 99.8%  
78 5% 98.9%  
79 11% 94% Last Result
80 21% 82% Median
81 22% 62%  
82 25% 40%  
83 10% 15%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.9% 2%  
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.6% 0.8%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.5%  
58 4% 98.5%  
59 9% 94%  
60 14% 85% Last Result
61 21% 71% Median
62 19% 50%  
63 19% 31%  
64 7% 12%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.5% 99.9%  
56 1.1% 99.4%  
57 5% 98%  
58 8% 93%  
59 16% 85%  
60 20% 70% Median
61 19% 49%  
62 18% 30%  
63 7% 12%  
64 4% 6%  
65 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.7%  
51 4% 98.8% Majority
52 6% 95%  
53 15% 89% Last Result
54 18% 73% Median
55 19% 55%  
56 20% 36%  
57 8% 17%  
58 6% 9%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.5% 0.8%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 1.5% 99.5%  
48 5% 98%  
49 8% 93%  
50 16% 85%  
51 17% 69% Median, Majority
52 21% 51%  
53 15% 31%  
54 10% 16%  
55 4% 6%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 7% 97%  
47 9% 91%  
48 19% 82%  
49 22% 63% Median
50 19% 41%  
51 12% 23% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 2% 99.0%  
46 7% 97%  
47 9% 91%  
48 19% 82%  
49 22% 63% Median
50 19% 41%  
51 12% 23% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.3%  
43 7% 96%  
44 16% 89%  
45 17% 74% Last Result, Median
46 21% 56%  
47 17% 35%  
48 10% 19%  
49 6% 9%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.3% 99.6%  
40 4% 98%  
41 10% 94%  
42 15% 84%  
43 24% 69% Median
44 18% 45% Last Result
45 13% 27%  
46 8% 14%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 6% 97%  
39 12% 91%  
40 20% 79%  
41 22% 59% Median
42 17% 37%  
43 15% 21%  
44 4% 6%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.6%  
36 2% 99.0%  
37 5% 97%  
38 10% 92%  
39 22% 82%  
40 17% 60% Median
41 15% 42%  
42 17% 27%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.1%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.0% 99.8%  
31 3% 98.8%  
32 10% 95%  
33 20% 86%  
34 17% 66% Median
35 19% 49%  
36 16% 30% Last Result
37 9% 14%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.0% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.3% 100%  
24 2% 99.6%  
25 7% 98%  
26 12% 91%  
27 26% 80% Median
28 23% 53%  
29 17% 30% Last Result
30 7% 13%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.8% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations