Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 4–10 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.1% 30.3–34.0% 29.7–34.6% 29.3–35.1% 28.4–36.0%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.4% 17.9–21.1% 17.4–21.6% 17.1–22.0% 16.4–22.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 19.0% 17.5–20.7% 17.1–21.1% 16.7–21.6% 16.0–22.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.9% 4.5–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.5–2.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 19–22 18–23 18–24 17–25
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 4–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.3%  
34 6% 97% Last Result
35 16% 91%  
36 15% 75%  
37 18% 60% Median
38 21% 42%  
39 14% 21%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 1.0% 1.2%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.9%  
19 10% 94%  
20 23% 84%  
21 24% 61% Median
22 22% 37%  
23 11% 15%  
24 3% 4%  
25 0.9% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 8% 98%  
19 15% 90% Last Result
20 32% 75% Median
21 20% 43%  
22 14% 23%  
23 6% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.3% 100%  
7 6% 99.7%  
8 20% 93%  
9 34% 73% Median
10 29% 39%  
11 8% 10%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 28% 95%  
8 35% 67% Median
9 23% 32%  
10 7% 8% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 3% 95%  
5 39% 93%  
6 39% 54% Median
7 14% 15%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 76–81 76–82 75–82 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–65 60–66 59–66 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 55–60 55–61 54–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 100% 55–60 54–60 54–61 52–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 50 49% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 50 49% 48–53 47–53 47–54 45–55
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 3% 44–49 44–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 45 0.3% 43–47 42–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–45 39–45 38–46 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 28 0% 26–31 26–31 25–32 24–33

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.7% 99.8%  
75 3% 99.0%  
76 12% 96%  
77 19% 85%  
78 21% 66% Median
79 22% 45% Last Result
80 13% 23%  
81 5% 10%  
82 3% 5%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.8% 1.3%  
85 0.4% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 10% 97%  
61 11% 87%  
62 18% 76%  
63 21% 58% Median
64 19% 37%  
65 10% 18% Last Result
66 6% 8%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.9% 99.8%  
54 3% 98.8%  
55 7% 96%  
56 15% 89%  
57 15% 74%  
58 19% 59% Median
59 18% 40%  
60 14% 23% Last Result
61 5% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.5% Last Result
54 5% 98%  
55 11% 93%  
56 16% 82%  
57 20% 66% Median
58 16% 46%  
59 15% 30%  
60 10% 15%  
61 3% 5%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 1.5% 99.1%  
47 4% 98%  
48 8% 94%  
49 14% 85%  
50 22% 71%  
51 21% 49% Median, Majority
52 14% 28%  
53 9% 14%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.1% 1.5%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.7%  
46 1.5% 99.1%  
47 4% 98%  
48 8% 94%  
49 14% 85%  
50 22% 71%  
51 21% 49% Median, Majority
52 14% 28%  
53 9% 14%  
54 4% 5%  
55 1.1% 1.5%  
56 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 1.3% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 6% 95%  
45 12% 89%  
46 24% 77%  
47 15% 54% Median
48 20% 39%  
49 9% 18%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.3%  
42 7% 97%  
43 10% 90%  
44 21% 80% Last Result
45 19% 59% Median
46 21% 40%  
47 9% 19%  
48 6% 10%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.0% 1.3%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.7%  
37 0.6% 99.6%  
38 2% 99.0%  
39 3% 97%  
40 8% 94%  
41 22% 86%  
42 13% 64%  
43 17% 51% Median
44 23% 35%  
45 7% 11%  
46 2% 4% Last Result
47 1.5% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.4%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 4% 98.6%  
39 8% 95%  
40 19% 87%  
41 24% 68% Median
42 17% 44%  
43 17% 27%  
44 5% 10%  
45 3% 5% Last Result
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.8% 99.8%  
29 0.6% 99.1%  
30 1.4% 98%  
31 4% 97%  
32 6% 93%  
33 20% 87%  
34 20% 68%  
35 17% 48% Median
36 14% 31%  
37 12% 16%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.2% 1.4%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.4% 100%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 11% 93%  
28 22% 82%  
29 23% 59% Median
30 17% 36%  
31 12% 20%  
32 5% 8%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.8%  
25 3% 99.1%  
26 8% 96%  
27 18% 88%  
28 22% 69% Median
29 20% 47% Last Result
30 15% 27%  
31 8% 12%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.9% 1.2%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations