Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 10–17 August 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 33.0% | 31.1–34.9% | 30.6–35.5% | 30.1–36.0% | 29.3–36.9% |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 22.9% | 21.3–24.7% | 20.8–25.2% | 20.4–25.6% | 19.6–26.5% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 15.4% | 14.0–16.9% | 13.6–17.4% | 13.3–17.8% | 12.7–18.5% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.7–11.1% | 8.4–11.5% | 8.1–11.8% | 7.6–12.5% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 7.9% | 6.9–9.1% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.4–9.7% | 5.9–10.3% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.8–7.8% | 4.4–8.3% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% | 1.5–3.4% | 1.3–3.8% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 38 | 35–40 | 35–41 | 34–42 | 33–43 |
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 25 | 23–27 | 22–28 | 22–28 | 21–29 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 5 | 4–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 | 0–8 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 35 | 7% | 96% | |
| 36 | 15% | 90% | |
| 37 | 18% | 74% | |
| 38 | 24% | 56% | Median |
| 39 | 14% | 33% | |
| 40 | 11% | 19% | |
| 41 | 5% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 13% | 95% | |
| 24 | 23% | 82% | |
| 25 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 39% | Last Result |
| 27 | 12% | 20% | |
| 28 | 6% | 8% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 97% | |
| 15 | 24% | 88% | |
| 16 | 29% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 21% | 35% | |
| 18 | 10% | 14% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 13% | 98% | |
| 9 | 36% | 85% | Median |
| 10 | 33% | 49% | Last Result |
| 11 | 13% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 98% | |
| 7 | 42% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 33% | 44% | |
| 9 | 9% | 11% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 95% | |
| 2 | 0% | 95% | |
| 3 | 0% | 95% | |
| 4 | 5% | 95% | |
| 5 | 45% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 35% | 44% | |
| 7 | 8% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 79 | 100% | 77–81 | 76–82 | 76–83 | 75–85 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond | 60 | 63 | 100% | 60–65 | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–69 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 59 | 100% | 56–61 | 56–62 | 55–63 | 54–64 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 54 | 96% | 51–56 | 51–57 | 50–58 | 49–60 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 53 | 85% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 49–56 | 47–57 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 53 | 85% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 49–56 | 47–57 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 47 | 6% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 43–51 | 43–53 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 46 | 1.3% | 44–48 | 43–50 | 42–50 | 41–51 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 40–46 | 39–47 | 37–48 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 41 | 0% | 39–43 | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 40 | 0% | 37–42 | 36–43 | 36–44 | 34–45 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 34 | 0% | 32–37 | 32–38 | 31–38 | 30–40 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 25 | 0% | 24–28 | 23–28 | 22–29 | 22–30 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 5% | 98% | |
| 77 | 12% | 93% | |
| 78 | 24% | 81% | |
| 79 | 27% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 80 | 16% | 30% | |
| 81 | 7% | 13% | |
| 82 | 3% | 7% | |
| 83 | 2% | 4% | |
| 84 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 85 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 86 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 60 | 8% | 96% | Last Result |
| 61 | 11% | 88% | |
| 62 | 23% | 77% | |
| 63 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 64 | 19% | 36% | |
| 65 | 10% | 17% | |
| 66 | 3% | 7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 56 | 7% | 96% | |
| 57 | 8% | 89% | |
| 58 | 20% | 81% | |
| 59 | 20% | 61% | Median |
| 60 | 20% | 42% | |
| 61 | 12% | 22% | |
| 62 | 6% | 10% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 98% | |
| 51 | 9% | 96% | Majority |
| 52 | 11% | 87% | |
| 53 | 22% | 76% | Last Result |
| 54 | 19% | 55% | Median |
| 55 | 18% | 36% | |
| 56 | 9% | 18% | |
| 57 | 5% | 9% | |
| 58 | 3% | 4% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98% | |
| 50 | 9% | 94% | |
| 51 | 16% | 85% | Majority |
| 52 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 51% | |
| 54 | 13% | 30% | |
| 55 | 9% | 17% | |
| 56 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 57 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 98% | |
| 50 | 9% | 94% | |
| 51 | 16% | 85% | Majority |
| 52 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 51% | |
| 54 | 13% | 30% | |
| 55 | 9% | 17% | |
| 56 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 57 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 45 | 13% | 94% | |
| 46 | 17% | 81% | |
| 47 | 17% | 64% | Median |
| 48 | 22% | 47% | |
| 49 | 9% | 24% | |
| 50 | 9% | 15% | |
| 51 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 52 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98% | |
| 43 | 5% | 96% | |
| 44 | 9% | 92% | |
| 45 | 16% | 82% | |
| 46 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 47 | 20% | 49% | |
| 48 | 19% | 28% | |
| 49 | 5% | 10% | |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 1.3% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 39 | 2% | 98% | |
| 40 | 6% | 96% | |
| 41 | 11% | 90% | |
| 42 | 17% | 79% | |
| 43 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 44 | 20% | 41% | |
| 45 | 10% | 21% | |
| 46 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 47 | 3% | 4% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 38 | 7% | 97% | |
| 39 | 11% | 90% | |
| 40 | 17% | 79% | |
| 41 | 23% | 62% | Median |
| 42 | 16% | 40% | |
| 43 | 15% | 24% | |
| 44 | 5% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 46 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 3% | 98% | |
| 37 | 6% | 94% | |
| 38 | 9% | 88% | |
| 39 | 24% | 79% | Median |
| 40 | 18% | 55% | |
| 41 | 19% | 37% | |
| 42 | 11% | 18% | |
| 43 | 4% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 3% | |
| 45 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 32 | 8% | 96% | |
| 33 | 14% | 88% | |
| 34 | 26% | 73% | Median |
| 35 | 17% | 47% | |
| 36 | 16% | 30% | Last Result |
| 37 | 8% | 14% | |
| 38 | 4% | 6% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 23 | 7% | 97% | |
| 24 | 17% | 91% | |
| 25 | 25% | 74% | Median |
| 26 | 21% | 49% | |
| 27 | 17% | 28% | |
| 28 | 7% | 11% | |
| 29 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 10–17 August 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%