Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS for ERR, 12–24 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.5–30.8%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.9% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.2% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 20.7% 19.2–22.5% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.4% 17.6–24.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.4% 9.2–11.7% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.4% 8.1–13.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–12.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 26 30 28–33 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 22 20–25 20–25 19–26 19–27
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–13
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.4% 100%  
26 1.5% 99.6% Last Result
27 4% 98%  
28 10% 94%  
29 16% 84%  
30 21% 68% Median
31 19% 46%  
32 17% 28%  
33 7% 11%  
34 3% 4%  
35 0.7% 1.0%  
36 0.2% 0.3%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.8%  
23 3% 98.9%  
24 10% 95%  
25 15% 85%  
26 26% 71% Median
27 22% 44%  
28 11% 22%  
29 8% 11%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.5% Last Result
20 8% 97%  
21 16% 89%  
22 24% 73% Median
23 23% 50%  
24 15% 26%  
25 8% 11%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.7% 100%  
8 8% 99.3%  
9 15% 91%  
10 25% 76% Last Result
11 32% 51% Median
12 15% 19%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 5% 99.5%  
8 20% 95%  
9 40% 74% Median
10 28% 34%  
11 6% 7%  
12 1.0% 1.2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0% 48%  
3 0% 48%  
4 14% 48%  
5 25% 34%  
6 8% 9%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 79 100% 76–82 75–82 75–83 74–84
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 57 99.7% 54–59 53–60 52–61 51–62
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 55 98.8% 52–58 52–59 51–60 50–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 53 84% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 51 61% 48–54 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 24% 46–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0% 40–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 41 0% 38–44 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 39 0% 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 39 0% 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 34–39 33–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 33 0% 30–35 29–36 29–37 28–37
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 28 0% 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.5%  
75 4% 98%  
76 9% 93%  
77 7% 84%  
78 15% 77% Median
79 14% 63% Last Result
80 15% 49%  
81 22% 34%  
82 9% 12%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.3%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.5% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 99.2%  
53 3% 96%  
54 9% 92%  
55 14% 83%  
56 13% 69% Median
57 19% 56%  
58 18% 37%  
59 11% 19%  
60 5% 8% Last Result
61 3% 3%  
62 0.5% 0.7%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.4% 100%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.8% Majority
52 6% 96% Median
53 10% 90%  
54 18% 80%  
55 20% 62%  
56 14% 41%  
57 12% 27% Last Result
58 8% 15%  
59 5% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.1%  
49 4% 98%  
50 10% 93%  
51 9% 84% Majority
52 18% 75% Median
53 16% 56%  
54 17% 41%  
55 15% 23%  
56 5% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.7%  
47 3% 98%  
48 6% 95% Median
49 19% 89%  
50 10% 70%  
51 20% 61% Majority
52 13% 41%  
53 10% 28%  
54 8% 18%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.0% 1.4%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 4% 97%  
46 8% 94%  
47 12% 86%  
48 14% 74% Median
49 25% 60%  
50 11% 35%  
51 15% 24% Majority
52 6% 9%  
53 2% 3% Last Result
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.9%  
40 9% 96%  
41 14% 87% Median
42 13% 74%  
43 18% 60%  
44 17% 43%  
45 12% 26%  
46 7% 14%  
47 5% 7%  
48 1.2% 2% Last Result
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.7% 99.8%  
36 2% 99.1% Last Result
37 6% 97%  
38 6% 91%  
39 13% 85%  
40 16% 71%  
41 20% 55% Median
42 12% 36%  
43 13% 23%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.7% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 3% 98%  
36 8% 95%  
37 16% 87% Median
38 12% 71%  
39 16% 59%  
40 14% 43%  
41 14% 29%  
42 6% 14%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 3% 98%  
36 8% 95%  
37 16% 87% Median
38 12% 71%  
39 16% 59%  
40 14% 43%  
41 14% 29%  
42 6% 14%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 4% 98.5%  
34 8% 94%  
35 13% 86%  
36 18% 73%  
37 23% 55% Median
38 14% 32%  
39 11% 19%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.2% 99.7%  
29 4% 98.5% Last Result
30 6% 95%  
31 14% 88%  
32 13% 74%  
33 20% 61% Median
34 21% 41%  
35 11% 21%  
36 6% 9%  
37 3% 3%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.2%  
25 6% 97%  
26 14% 91% Median
27 17% 76%  
28 10% 60%  
29 12% 50%  
30 12% 38%  
31 9% 25%  
32 8% 17%  
33 4% 9%  
34 4% 5%  
35 0.7% 0.9%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations