Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–25 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.5% 33.6–37.5% 33.1–38.0% 32.6–38.5% 31.7–39.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.1% 13.9–18.5% 13.3–19.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.9% 8.8–11.2% 8.5–11.6% 8.2–11.9% 7.7–12.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.2% 0.6–2.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 39–44 38–45 37–45 36–47
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–11 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 1.0% 99.8%  
37 2% 98.8%  
38 5% 96%  
39 6% 91%  
40 15% 85%  
41 20% 70% Median
42 22% 50%  
43 14% 28%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.9% 1.0%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.7%  
20 9% 98%  
21 17% 88%  
22 29% 71% Median
23 19% 42%  
24 12% 24%  
25 7% 11%  
26 3% 4% Last Result
27 0.8% 1.2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 5% 99.5%  
15 12% 94%  
16 22% 82%  
17 30% 61% Median
18 20% 31%  
19 8% 11% Last Result
20 3% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 15% 98%  
9 28% 83%  
10 35% 55% Median
11 16% 20%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.3% 100%  
1 0% 98.7%  
2 0% 98.7%  
3 0% 98.7%  
4 1.0% 98.7%  
5 28% 98%  
6 44% 70% Median
7 19% 25%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 8% 90%  
5 50% 81% Median
6 26% 32%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 78–83 78–85 77–86 76–87
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 61–67 61–68 60–69 59–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 63 100% 60–65 59–66 59–66 57–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 56–61 55–62 54–63 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 81% 49–55 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 81% 49–55 48–55 47–56 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 7% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 0.5% 43–49 42–49 41–50 39–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 41–47 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 31–36 29–37 28–37 27–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–26 19–26 17–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 3% 99.4%  
78 9% 97%  
79 16% 88% Last Result
80 22% 72% Median
81 25% 50%  
82 11% 25%  
83 4% 14%  
84 4% 10%  
85 2% 6%  
86 3% 4%  
87 0.6% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.9% 99.7%  
60 4% 98.8% Last Result
61 6% 95%  
62 16% 89%  
63 19% 73% Median
64 19% 53%  
65 16% 34%  
66 8% 18%  
67 5% 10%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 1.4% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.1%  
59 5% 98%  
60 5% 93%  
61 8% 88%  
62 15% 80%  
63 18% 64% Median
64 21% 46%  
65 17% 25% Last Result
66 5% 8%  
67 2% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
54 3% 98.7%  
55 5% 96%  
56 10% 91%  
57 17% 81%  
58 20% 64% Median
59 18% 45%  
60 14% 26%  
61 6% 13%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 3% 97%  
49 4% 94%  
50 8% 89%  
51 17% 81% Majority
52 20% 65% Median
53 16% 45%  
54 17% 29%  
55 8% 12%  
56 3% 4% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.9% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 3% 97%  
49 4% 94%  
50 8% 89%  
51 17% 81% Majority
52 20% 65% Median
53 16% 45%  
54 17% 29%  
55 8% 12%  
56 3% 4% Last Result
57 0.6% 0.7%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.7%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 5% 97% Last Result
45 9% 92%  
46 15% 83%  
47 24% 68% Median
48 14% 44%  
49 16% 30%  
50 7% 14%  
51 4% 7% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.2%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 1.3% 99.4%  
41 2% 98%  
42 3% 96%  
43 5% 93%  
44 7% 88%  
45 12% 81%  
46 18% 69% Last Result, Median
47 21% 51%  
48 20% 31%  
49 8% 11%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 2% 97%  
41 6% 95%  
42 10% 88%  
43 13% 78%  
44 29% 65% Median
45 11% 36%  
46 12% 25%  
47 7% 12%  
48 3% 5%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 1.5% 99.6%  
36 6% 98%  
37 11% 92%  
38 15% 81%  
39 28% 66% Median
40 12% 38%  
41 14% 25%  
42 5% 12%  
43 3% 7%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 1.0% 99.7%  
28 2% 98.7%  
29 2% 97%  
30 4% 95%  
31 9% 91%  
32 18% 82%  
33 20% 64% Median
34 20% 43%  
35 12% 23%  
36 6% 11%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.9%  
24 0.5% 99.5%  
25 3% 99.0%  
26 9% 96%  
27 22% 87%  
28 28% 66% Median
29 15% 38%  
30 8% 23%  
31 8% 15%  
32 5% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.2%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.8%  
18 0.5% 99.5%  
19 2% 98.9%  
20 5% 97%  
21 14% 92%  
22 19% 78%  
23 27% 59% Median
24 17% 32%  
25 9% 15%  
26 4% 6%  
27 1.1% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations