Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 25–31 August 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.5% 31.6–35.5% 31.1–36.0% 30.6–36.5% 29.8–37.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.8% 23.1–26.6% 22.6–27.1% 22.2–27.6% 21.4–28.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.4% 15.0–18.0% 14.6–18.4% 14.2–18.8% 13.6–19.6%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 39 37–42 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 26–30 25–31 25–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 15–20 15–20 14–21
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–4

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
35 2% 99.1%  
36 5% 97%  
37 11% 92%  
38 18% 80%  
39 20% 63% Median
40 18% 42%  
41 13% 24%  
42 7% 11%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.9% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.4% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.5%  
25 7% 98%  
26 12% 91% Last Result
27 18% 79%  
28 23% 60% Median
29 20% 38%  
30 10% 18%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.8%  
15 7% 98.6%  
16 15% 91%  
17 29% 76% Median
18 21% 46%  
19 17% 25% Last Result
20 6% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 1.2% 100%  
7 12% 98.8%  
8 32% 87%  
9 34% 55% Median
10 16% 21% Last Result
11 4% 5%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 18% 98%  
7 41% 80% Median
8 28% 39%  
9 9% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0% 10%  
3 0% 10%  
4 6% 10%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0.4% 0.5%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 85 100% 82–87 81–87 80–87 79–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 67 100% 64–70 64–70 63–71 62–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 100% 55–60 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.8% 54–59 53–60 52–60 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 14% 46–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 48 9% 45–50 44–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 1.3% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.5% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
80 2% 98.8%  
81 3% 96%  
82 6% 93%  
83 10% 87%  
84 20% 77% Median
85 25% 57%  
86 21% 32%  
87 8% 11%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100% Last Result
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.4% 99.5%  
63 3% 98%  
64 6% 95%  
65 11% 89%  
66 15% 78%  
67 18% 63% Median
68 22% 45%  
69 12% 23%  
70 6% 11%  
71 3% 4%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.7% 99.7%  
53 3% 99.0%  
54 6% 96%  
55 12% 91%  
56 17% 78% Median
57 20% 61%  
58 17% 41%  
59 13% 24%  
60 7% 11%  
61 3% 4%  
62 0.9% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.8% Majority
52 2% 99.0%  
53 4% 97% Last Result
54 7% 93%  
55 14% 86%  
56 18% 71% Median
57 20% 53%  
58 15% 33%  
59 11% 18%  
60 5% 7%  
61 2% 2%  
62 0.5% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.2%  
45 5% 97%  
46 11% 92%  
47 17% 81%  
48 19% 64% Median
49 18% 44%  
50 13% 27%  
51 8% 14% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.5%  
44 3% 98% Last Result
45 7% 95%  
46 13% 88%  
47 19% 75%  
48 19% 56% Median
49 17% 36%  
50 11% 20%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.8% 1.0%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.7%  
42 4% 98.7%  
43 8% 95%  
44 12% 87%  
45 17% 75% Median
46 21% 58%  
47 17% 37%  
48 10% 20%  
49 6% 10%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.9% 1.3% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 5% 97%  
43 10% 92%  
44 14% 82%  
45 18% 68% Last Result, Median
46 20% 50%  
47 15% 30%  
48 8% 14%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.6%  
36 4% 98%  
37 9% 94%  
38 16% 85%  
39 19% 69% Median
40 18% 50%  
41 15% 32%  
42 9% 17%  
43 5% 8%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.1%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 7% 97%  
35 13% 90%  
36 17% 77%  
37 20% 60% Median
38 16% 40%  
39 12% 24%  
40 6% 11%  
41 3% 5%  
42 1.3% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 4% 98.6%  
34 9% 95%  
35 15% 86%  
36 18% 71% Last Result
37 21% 53% Median
38 15% 32%  
39 10% 17%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 1.1% 99.7%  
23 5% 98.7%  
24 10% 94%  
25 19% 84%  
26 24% 64% Median
27 17% 40%  
28 14% 23%  
29 6% 9% Last Result
30 2% 3%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations