Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 2–9 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.6% 31.7–35.6% 31.2–36.1% 30.7–36.6% 29.8–37.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.5% 7.5–9.7% 7.2–10.1% 6.9–10.4% 6.5–11.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–18 14–18 14–19 13–20
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.3% Last Result
35 5% 97%  
36 8% 92%  
37 15% 84%  
38 24% 69% Median
39 20% 45%  
40 11% 25%  
41 8% 14%  
42 5% 6%  
43 1.1% 1.4%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 1.4% 99.6%  
26 4% 98% Last Result
27 9% 94%  
28 19% 85%  
29 20% 65% Median
30 23% 45%  
31 12% 22%  
32 7% 10%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.8% 1.0%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 9% 98%  
15 21% 88%  
16 28% 67% Median
17 25% 39%  
18 9% 14%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 1.1% 1.2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.2% 100%  
6 5% 99.8%  
7 25% 95%  
8 37% 70% Median
9 25% 32%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 6% 99.7%  
7 28% 94%  
8 42% 65% Median
9 17% 23%  
10 5% 6% Last Result
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 0% 30%  
4 16% 30%  
5 14% 15%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 81–86 80–87 79–87 78–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 68 100% 65–70 64–71 63–72 62–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.5% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 55 96% 52–57 51–58 50–59 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 9% 45–50 44–51 44–52 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 5% 44–50 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 2% 44–49 43–50 42–50 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.6% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–42 35–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 37 0% 35–40 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 22–27 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.8% 99.8%  
79 3% 99.0% Last Result
80 6% 97%  
81 11% 91%  
82 10% 80%  
83 11% 71% Median
84 18% 60%  
85 20% 42%  
86 15% 22%  
87 5% 7%  
88 1.4% 2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100% Last Result
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 1.2% 99.7%  
63 2% 98%  
64 6% 96%  
65 7% 90%  
66 15% 83%  
67 14% 68% Median
68 19% 54%  
69 15% 35%  
70 12% 20%  
71 5% 8%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.5% 0.7%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.3% 99.5% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 8% 95%  
54 14% 88% Median
55 17% 73%  
56 21% 56%  
57 15% 35%  
58 10% 20%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.3%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.7%  
50 2% 98.8%  
51 6% 96% Majority
52 8% 90%  
53 14% 82% Last Result
54 18% 68% Median
55 17% 50%  
56 18% 33%  
57 9% 16%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.8% 1.0%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.4%  
44 4% 98%  
45 10% 93%  
46 16% 83% Median
47 17% 67%  
48 16% 50%  
49 14% 35%  
50 11% 20%  
51 6% 9% Majority
52 2% 4%  
53 1.0% 1.4%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.5% 99.5%  
43 5% 98%  
44 10% 93%  
45 12% 84% Median
46 17% 71%  
47 19% 54%  
48 16% 35%  
49 8% 20%  
50 7% 11%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.0% 1.5%  
53 0.4% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.6%  
43 5% 96%  
44 10% 91% Last Result
45 15% 81%  
46 23% 66% Median
47 17% 43%  
48 12% 26%  
49 8% 14%  
50 5% 6%  
51 1.2% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.1%  
42 4% 97%  
43 12% 93%  
44 16% 81%  
45 17% 65% Last Result, Median
46 19% 48%  
47 16% 30%  
48 8% 14%  
49 3% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 93%  
38 17% 86% Median
39 20% 69%  
40 13% 49%  
41 14% 37%  
42 13% 23%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 5% 97%  
36 11% 92%  
37 17% 81% Median
38 16% 64%  
39 15% 48%  
40 13% 33%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 5%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 5% 97%  
35 11% 92%  
36 19% 81% Last Result
37 22% 62% Median
38 17% 41%  
39 13% 24%  
40 7% 11%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.0% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 1.2% 99.6%  
21 3% 98%  
22 10% 95%  
23 23% 86%  
24 32% 62% Median
25 14% 31%  
26 9% 17%  
27 6% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations