Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–15 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.5% 30.6–34.4% 30.1–35.0% 29.7–35.5% 28.8–36.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.5% 20.9–24.3% 20.4–24.8% 20.0–25.2% 19.3–26.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 13.8% 12.5–15.3% 12.1–15.7% 11.8–16.1% 11.2–16.8%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.7% 8.6–11.0% 8.3–11.4% 8.0–11.7% 7.5–12.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–41 35–41 34–42 33–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–27 22–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 14 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Eesti 200 0 10 8–11 8–12 8–12 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0% Last Result
35 7% 96%  
36 12% 89%  
37 16% 77%  
38 18% 62% Median
39 19% 44%  
40 15% 25%  
41 6% 11%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.4% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.6%  
23 11% 95%  
24 20% 84%  
25 24% 64% Median
26 18% 40% Last Result
27 13% 22%  
28 6% 9%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9%  
12 6% 98.9%  
13 20% 93%  
14 26% 73% Median
15 26% 47%  
16 13% 20%  
17 6% 8%  
18 1.4% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 2% 99.9%  
8 13% 98%  
9 31% 85%  
10 34% 54% Median
11 14% 20%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 7% 99.5%  
8 30% 92%  
9 34% 62% Median
10 21% 28% Last Result
11 6% 7%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 5% 88%  
5 46% 83% Median
6 28% 37%  
7 8% 8%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 75–80 74–82 74–83 73–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 60–66 60–67 59–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 58 99.7% 55–60 54–60 53–61 51–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 83% 50–55 49–56 49–57 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 71% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 71% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 4% 44–50 44–50 43–51 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.1% 42–47 41–48 40–49 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 43 0% 40–46 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 39 0% 36–42 35–42 34–43 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–37 31–37 30–38 30–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.2% 100%  
73 0.8% 99.8%  
74 4% 99.0%  
75 9% 95%  
76 13% 86%  
77 23% 73% Median
78 24% 50%  
79 10% 26% Last Result
80 7% 17%  
81 4% 10%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.8% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.9% 99.8%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 8% 97% Last Result
61 8% 89%  
62 20% 81%  
63 15% 61% Median
64 20% 46%  
65 13% 26%  
66 5% 13%  
67 5% 9%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.9% 1.4%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.3% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.7% Majority
52 1.4% 99.5%  
53 3% 98%  
54 5% 96%  
55 10% 90%  
56 13% 80%  
57 16% 67% Median
58 22% 51%  
59 17% 29%  
60 8% 13%  
61 3% 5%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.3%  
49 5% 98%  
50 10% 93%  
51 14% 83% Majority
52 19% 69% Median
53 18% 50% Last Result
54 15% 31%  
55 9% 16%  
56 4% 7%  
57 1.5% 3%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 5% 97%  
49 8% 92%  
50 14% 85%  
51 14% 71% Majority
52 14% 57% Median
53 18% 43%  
54 16% 24%  
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.7% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.9%  
48 5% 97%  
49 8% 92%  
50 14% 85%  
51 14% 71% Majority
52 14% 57% Median
53 18% 43%  
54 16% 24%  
55 6% 9%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.7% 0.9%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 1.0% 99.7%  
43 3% 98.7%  
44 7% 96% Last Result
45 13% 88%  
46 17% 75%  
47 17% 58% Median
48 16% 41%  
49 14% 25%  
50 7% 11%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.7% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.3%  
40 2% 98%  
41 5% 96%  
42 11% 91%  
43 15% 80%  
44 18% 65% Median
45 16% 47%  
46 13% 31%  
47 10% 18%  
48 5% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.0% 99.6%  
38 3% 98.6%  
39 4% 96%  
40 7% 92%  
41 11% 85%  
42 15% 73%  
43 12% 58% Median
44 20% 46%  
45 15% 26%  
46 8% 11% Last Result
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.9%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.4% 100%  
35 1.3% 99.6%  
36 3% 98%  
37 10% 95%  
38 19% 85%  
39 18% 66% Median
40 16% 48%  
41 14% 33%  
42 9% 18%  
43 6% 9%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 0.8% 99.5%  
34 1.4% 98.6%  
35 3% 97%  
36 8% 94%  
37 10% 86%  
38 17% 75%  
39 19% 59% Median
40 17% 40%  
41 12% 22%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 5% 97%  
32 14% 92%  
33 19% 78%  
34 20% 60% Median
35 17% 40%  
36 12% 22% Last Result
37 7% 11%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 4% 99.2%  
21 10% 96%  
22 19% 85%  
23 21% 66% Median
24 21% 45%  
25 13% 24%  
26 7% 11%  
27 3% 4%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations