Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 7–17 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.3–28.9% 24.8–29.4% 24.4–29.9% 23.6–30.8%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.0% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.7–27.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.9–18.4% 13.3–19.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.5–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.7–13.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.7–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.0% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–35 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 25–30 25–31 24–32 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 15–20 15–21 14–22
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Eesti 200 0 9 8–11 7–11 7–11 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 3% 99.0%  
29 6% 96%  
30 15% 90%  
31 21% 76%  
32 19% 55% Median
33 13% 35%  
34 13% 23% Last Result
35 5% 10%  
36 4% 5%  
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.3%  
25 6% 96%  
26 12% 90% Last Result
27 26% 78%  
28 15% 52% Median
29 16% 38%  
30 12% 21%  
31 6% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.7% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.9% 99.9%  
15 7% 99.0%  
16 13% 92%  
17 18% 79%  
18 35% 61% Median
19 15% 27% Last Result
20 7% 11%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.8% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 18% 96% Last Result
11 33% 78% Median
12 24% 44%  
13 14% 21%  
14 5% 7%  
15 1.0% 1.1%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.5% 100%  
7 5% 99.5%  
8 24% 95%  
9 37% 71% Median
10 22% 34%  
11 9% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100%  
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 0% 56%  
4 4% 56%  
5 41% 52% Median
6 10% 11%  
7 0.9% 0.9%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 77 100% 74–81 74–82 73–82 72–83
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 57–63 56–64 55–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 79% 49–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 34% 47–53 46–54 45–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 18% 45–51 44–52 43–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 3% 43–49 42–50 42–51 40–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 3% 43–49 42–50 42–51 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 2% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 37–43 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–39 29–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–32 26–33 25–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.2% 99.8%  
73 3% 98.6%  
74 8% 95%  
75 12% 87%  
76 14% 76%  
77 15% 61%  
78 9% 46% Median
79 9% 37% Last Result
80 12% 28%  
81 9% 16%  
82 5% 6%  
83 1.0% 1.3%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.6% 99.8%  
55 3% 99.3%  
56 5% 96%  
57 10% 91%  
58 14% 82%  
59 17% 68%  
60 15% 51% Last Result, Median
61 8% 36%  
62 13% 28%  
63 6% 15%  
64 6% 9%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 3% 98%  
49 6% 95%  
50 9% 89%  
51 13% 79% Majority
52 14% 66%  
53 17% 52%  
54 12% 34%  
55 12% 22% Median
56 5% 10%  
57 3% 4%  
58 1.0% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 1.2% 99.8%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 4% 96%  
47 10% 92%  
48 15% 82%  
49 14% 68%  
50 20% 54% Median
51 12% 34% Majority
52 11% 22%  
53 5% 10% Last Result
54 4% 5%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 3% 97%  
45 5% 94%  
46 8% 89%  
47 13% 81%  
48 17% 69%  
49 14% 52%  
50 20% 38%  
51 10% 18% Median, Majority
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.9% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 7% 84%  
45 15% 78%  
46 14% 63%  
47 19% 49%  
48 13% 30% Median
49 8% 17%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 7% 84%  
45 15% 78%  
46 14% 63%  
47 19% 49%  
48 13% 30% Median
49 8% 17%  
50 6% 9%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.9%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.8%  
41 2% 99.2%  
42 6% 97%  
43 9% 91%  
44 12% 82%  
45 22% 70% Last Result
46 14% 48% Median
47 11% 35%  
48 13% 23%  
49 7% 11%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.3% 2% Majority
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 2% 99.2%  
40 5% 97%  
41 11% 92%  
42 19% 81%  
43 19% 62% Median
44 12% 43% Last Result
45 14% 31%  
46 8% 17%  
47 5% 9%  
48 3% 4%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.9%  
37 2% 98.9%  
38 5% 97%  
39 5% 92%  
40 8% 87%  
41 15% 79%  
42 15% 64%  
43 22% 49%  
44 11% 27% Median
45 7% 16%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 3%  
48 1.2% 1.5% Last Result
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 7% 97% Last Result
37 11% 90%  
38 21% 79%  
39 13% 58% Median
40 13% 45%  
41 13% 32%  
42 9% 20%  
43 8% 10%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.4% 99.7%  
30 3% 98%  
31 6% 95%  
32 10% 89%  
33 11% 79%  
34 12% 69%  
35 14% 56%  
36 19% 43%  
37 10% 24% Median
38 6% 14%  
39 6% 8%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 1.4% 99.6%  
26 5% 98%  
27 10% 93%  
28 17% 83%  
29 24% 66% Last Result, Median
30 20% 42%  
31 12% 22%  
32 6% 10%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.0% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.3%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations