Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 15–21 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 34.7% 32.8–36.7% 32.3–37.2% 31.8–37.7% 30.9–38.7%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.6% 20.0–23.3% 19.5–23.8% 19.2–24.3% 18.4–25.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.3% 13.0–15.8% 12.6–16.2% 12.3–16.6% 11.6–17.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.2–10.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 42 39–45 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–17 13–18 13–19 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Eesti 200 0 8 7–9 6–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 1.4% 99.6%  
38 3% 98%  
39 6% 95%  
40 9% 89%  
41 16% 80%  
42 17% 64% Median
43 13% 47%  
44 16% 34%  
45 11% 18%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.5%  
22 7% 96%  
23 12% 90%  
24 19% 77%  
25 24% 58% Median
26 18% 34% Last Result
27 10% 16%  
28 4% 6%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.0% 99.9%  
13 6% 98.9%  
14 17% 93%  
15 24% 76%  
16 24% 51% Median
17 18% 27%  
18 7% 9%  
19 2% 3% Last Result
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.2% 100%  
6 4% 99.8%  
7 21% 96%  
8 38% 75% Median
9 27% 38%  
10 9% 11% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.3% 100%  
6 5% 99.7%  
7 23% 95%  
8 39% 72% Median
9 25% 34%  
10 7% 9%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 64% 100% Median
1 0% 36%  
2 0% 36%  
3 0% 36%  
4 7% 36%  
5 25% 30%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0.1% 0.3%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 79–86 79–86 78–87 76–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 67 100% 64–71 63–71 62–72 61–73
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 57–63 56–63 55–64 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 99.9% 55–61 54–62 53–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 52 78% 50–56 49–56 48–57 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 52 78% 50–56 49–56 48–57 46–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 51 52% 48–53 46–55 46–55 44–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0.4% 41–47 41–48 40–49 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–47 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 37–44 36–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 30–36 29–36 29–37 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–28 19–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.4%  
78 3% 98%  
79 9% 95% Last Result
80 7% 87%  
81 13% 79%  
82 9% 66%  
83 14% 57% Median
84 12% 43%  
85 18% 31%  
86 8% 13%  
87 4% 5%  
88 0.5% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.7% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 4% 97%  
64 8% 93%  
65 13% 85%  
66 12% 72%  
67 14% 60% Median
68 15% 46%  
69 12% 31%  
70 8% 19%  
71 8% 11%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 0.8%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 4% 97%  
57 7% 93%  
58 14% 86% Median
59 17% 72%  
60 22% 55%  
61 13% 33%  
62 9% 20%  
63 6% 11%  
64 4% 5%  
65 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.0% 99.6%  
53 3% 98.6% Last Result
54 5% 95%  
55 6% 90%  
56 14% 84%  
57 11% 71%  
58 15% 59% Median
59 16% 45%  
60 16% 28%  
61 7% 13%  
62 4% 6%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 6% 96%  
50 13% 91% Median
51 11% 78% Majority
52 21% 66%  
53 18% 46%  
54 11% 28%  
55 7% 17%  
56 6% 10% Last Result
57 3% 4%  
58 0.8% 1.3%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.5% 99.9%  
47 1.1% 99.4%  
48 2% 98%  
49 6% 96%  
50 13% 91% Median
51 11% 78% Majority
52 21% 66%  
53 18% 46%  
54 11% 28%  
55 7% 17%  
56 6% 10% Last Result
57 3% 4%  
58 0.8% 1.3%  
59 0.4% 0.4%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
45 1.2% 99.4%  
46 3% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 11% 90%  
49 13% 79%  
50 14% 66% Median
51 14% 52% Majority
52 15% 38%  
53 14% 23%  
54 3% 8%  
55 5% 5%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 3% 98%  
41 9% 95%  
42 13% 86% Median
43 12% 73%  
44 20% 62%  
45 16% 42%  
46 10% 26% Last Result
47 7% 16%  
48 5% 9%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.9% 1.4%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 14% 87%  
41 17% 73% Median
42 14% 57%  
43 13% 43%  
44 9% 30%  
45 11% 20%  
46 5% 9%  
47 2% 4%  
48 1.0% 2%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.9% 99.7%  
36 3% 98.8%  
37 6% 96%  
38 9% 90%  
39 13% 81%  
40 18% 68%  
41 22% 50% Median
42 12% 28%  
43 9% 16%  
44 4% 7%  
45 2% 3% Last Result
46 0.6% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 10% 93%  
33 17% 83% Median
34 18% 66%  
35 11% 48%  
36 10% 37%  
37 12% 27%  
38 6% 16%  
39 6% 9%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.9% 1.3%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 0.9% 99.8%  
29 4% 98.8%  
30 6% 95%  
31 9% 89%  
32 15% 80%  
33 25% 64% Median
34 19% 39%  
35 10% 20%  
36 5% 10% Last Result
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 1.3%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.5%  
21 6% 98%  
22 16% 92%  
23 21% 75%  
24 20% 54% Median
25 18% 35%  
26 9% 16%  
27 5% 7%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations