Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 23–28 September 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.4% 29.6–33.3% 29.0–33.9% 28.6–34.4% 27.7–35.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.5–18.6% 15.2–19.1% 14.8–19.5% 14.1–20.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 12.1% 10.9–13.5% 10.5–13.9% 10.2–14.3% 9.6–15.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 35–40 34–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–29 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–21 16–22 15–23
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 13 11–14 11–15 10–15 10–16
Eesti 200 0 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.9%  
33 1.5% 99.5%  
34 4% 98% Last Result
35 9% 94%  
36 14% 85%  
37 18% 71%  
38 15% 53% Median
39 20% 38%  
40 10% 18%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 4%  
43 0.7% 1.2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.7%  
23 4% 98%  
24 8% 94%  
25 24% 86%  
26 18% 62% Last Result, Median
27 16% 44%  
28 18% 28%  
29 7% 11%  
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.2%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 6% 98.8%  
17 12% 93%  
18 24% 81%  
19 25% 57% Last Result, Median
20 17% 32%  
21 12% 16%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 0.9%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7% Last Result
11 13% 97%  
12 26% 84%  
13 34% 58% Median
14 17% 25%  
15 5% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 0% 88%  
3 0% 88%  
4 2% 88%  
5 43% 86% Median
6 34% 43%  
7 8% 9%  
8 1.0% 1.0%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0% 11%  
3 0% 11%  
4 2% 11%  
5 8% 9%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 83 100% 80–86 78–88 78–89 76–90
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 64 100% 61–67 60–68 59–69 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 57 99.9% 54–60 53–61 53–62 52–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.6% 53–60 53–61 52–61 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 51 58% 48–54 47–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 58% 48–54 47–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 49% 48–53 47–54 46–55 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 2% 43–49 42–49 42–50 40–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.8% 42–48 41–49 41–49 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 39 0% 37–42 36–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 35–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 31 0% 29–34 29–35 28–36 27–37

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.6% 99.8%  
77 2% 99.2%  
78 3% 98%  
79 5% 95% Last Result
80 6% 90%  
81 9% 85%  
82 21% 75%  
83 20% 54% Median
84 14% 34%  
85 8% 20%  
86 2% 11%  
87 3% 9%  
88 4% 7%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.6% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.8%  
60 5% 97% Last Result
61 7% 92%  
62 10% 85%  
63 15% 75%  
64 22% 60% Median
65 13% 37%  
66 10% 25%  
67 8% 15%  
68 4% 8%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.3% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.4% 99.9% Majority
52 0.9% 99.5%  
53 4% 98.6%  
54 9% 95%  
55 8% 86%  
56 20% 78%  
57 17% 58% Median
58 16% 41%  
59 11% 25%  
60 6% 14%  
61 4% 8%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.4%  
64 0.6% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.6% Majority
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 96% Last Result
54 11% 90%  
55 9% 79%  
56 20% 69%  
57 16% 49% Median
58 14% 33%  
59 10% 20%  
60 5% 10%  
61 3% 6%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 4% 98%  
48 6% 94%  
49 17% 88%  
50 13% 71%  
51 14% 58% Median, Majority
52 21% 44%  
53 10% 23%  
54 5% 12%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.5% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.6%  
47 4% 98%  
48 6% 94%  
49 17% 88%  
50 13% 71%  
51 14% 58% Median, Majority
52 21% 44%  
53 10% 23%  
54 5% 12%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.5% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
45 0.7% 99.4%  
46 3% 98.7%  
47 6% 96%  
48 9% 90%  
49 18% 82%  
50 14% 63%  
51 14% 49% Median, Majority
52 20% 36%  
53 8% 16%  
54 4% 8%  
55 3% 4%  
56 0.8% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.6% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 5% 98%  
43 13% 93%  
44 13% 80%  
45 13% 67% Median
46 19% 53%  
47 14% 34%  
48 8% 20%  
49 8% 12%  
50 2% 4%  
51 1.2% 2% Majority
52 0.5% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.5% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 6% 95%  
43 16% 89%  
44 15% 73%  
45 13% 58% Last Result, Median
46 18% 45%  
47 13% 27%  
48 5% 14%  
49 7% 9%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.8% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 11% 93%  
38 18% 83%  
39 12% 65% Median
40 23% 53%  
41 12% 30%  
42 8% 18%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.8%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 1.2% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.5%  
36 6% 96% Last Result
37 14% 90%  
38 20% 77%  
39 13% 57% Median
40 23% 44%  
41 10% 21%  
42 6% 11%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.5%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.8%  
34 3% 99.0%  
35 7% 96%  
36 12% 90%  
37 16% 77%  
38 15% 62% Median
39 21% 47%  
40 12% 26%  
41 7% 15%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.3% 0.4%  
46 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.9% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.8%  
29 10% 96% Last Result
30 13% 86%  
31 24% 73%  
32 21% 50% Median
33 14% 29%  
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 7%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.7% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations