Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 28 September–5 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.1% 33.2–37.1% 32.7–37.6% 32.2–38.1% 31.3–39.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.2% 19.6–22.9% 19.2–23.4% 18.8–23.9% 18.0–24.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.7% 14.3–17.3% 13.9–17.7% 13.6–18.1% 12.9–18.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.1% 7.1–9.3% 6.8–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.1–10.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 40 38–43 37–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–12
Eesti 200 0 8 6–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–7 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100% Last Result
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 5% 98%  
38 12% 93%  
39 15% 81%  
40 18% 66% Median
41 18% 48%  
42 14% 30%  
43 8% 15%  
44 5% 7%  
45 1.3% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.8%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 2% 99.9%  
20 5% 98%  
21 18% 93%  
22 14% 75%  
23 12% 62%  
24 28% 50% Median
25 18% 22%  
26 3% 4% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.9%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.8%  
14 8% 98%  
15 17% 91%  
16 31% 74% Median
17 21% 43%  
18 15% 21%  
19 5% 7% Last Result
20 1.0% 1.3%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 4% 99.8%  
8 24% 96%  
9 34% 72% Median
10 25% 38% Last Result
11 11% 13%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 1.0% 100%  
6 10% 99.0%  
7 32% 89%  
8 36% 57% Median
9 17% 21%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100%  
1 0% 82%  
2 0% 82%  
3 0% 82%  
4 10% 82%  
5 47% 72% Median
6 22% 25%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 77–83 77–84 76–85 75–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 61–67 60–67 59–68 58–70
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 61 100% 58–64 58–64 57–65 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.9% 54–60 53–61 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 54 96% 51–57 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 54 96% 51–57 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 50 36% 47–52 46–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 45 0.2% 42–47 41–48 40–49 39–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 41–47 40–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 37–42 36–43 36–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 33–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 33 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 23–28 23–29 22–29 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.9%  
76 3% 99.2%  
77 9% 96%  
78 19% 88%  
79 17% 68% Last Result
80 19% 51% Median
81 13% 32%  
82 5% 19%  
83 6% 14%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4%  
86 2% 2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.5% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.3%  
60 5% 97% Last Result
61 10% 92%  
62 19% 82%  
63 16% 63%  
64 18% 48% Median
65 11% 29%  
66 7% 18%  
67 6% 11%  
68 3% 5%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 3% 99.2%  
58 8% 97%  
59 15% 89%  
60 14% 74%  
61 16% 60% Median
62 20% 43%  
63 10% 23%  
64 8% 12%  
65 3% 4% Last Result
66 0.8% 1.0%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 2% 99.7%  
53 5% 98% Last Result
54 7% 92%  
55 14% 85%  
56 18% 71% Median
57 20% 53%  
58 10% 34%  
59 11% 23%  
60 7% 12%  
61 3% 5%  
62 2% 2%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 19% 89%  
53 16% 70%  
54 13% 53% Median
55 16% 40%  
56 12% 24% Last Result
57 8% 13%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.1% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.6%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 96% Majority
52 19% 89%  
53 16% 70%  
54 13% 53% Median
55 16% 40%  
56 12% 24% Last Result
57 8% 13%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.1% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9% Last Result
45 1.0% 99.5%  
46 5% 98.5%  
47 11% 93%  
48 17% 83%  
49 16% 66% Median
50 14% 50%  
51 14% 36% Majority
52 13% 22%  
53 6% 9%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.2%  
41 4% 97%  
42 8% 93%  
43 18% 84%  
44 15% 67%  
45 14% 52% Median
46 16% 39% Last Result
47 13% 22%  
48 5% 9%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.7% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 0.5% 99.5%  
39 1.4% 99.0%  
40 7% 98%  
41 9% 90%  
42 14% 81%  
43 12% 67%  
44 15% 55%  
45 18% 40% Median
46 12% 22%  
47 8% 11%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 6% 98%  
37 13% 92%  
38 14% 79%  
39 11% 65%  
40 21% 53% Median
41 18% 33%  
42 10% 15%  
43 4% 5%  
44 1.0% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.5%  
32 2% 98.7%  
33 9% 97%  
34 9% 88%  
35 12% 79%  
36 13% 67%  
37 14% 54%  
38 20% 40% Median
39 12% 20%  
40 5% 8%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 1.2% 99.5%  
29 7% 98%  
30 11% 91%  
31 17% 80%  
32 13% 63%  
33 22% 51% Median
34 16% 28%  
35 10% 12%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 10% 97%  
24 11% 87%  
25 28% 76% Median
26 19% 48%  
27 17% 30%  
28 7% 12%  
29 4% 5% Last Result
30 1.0% 1.3%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations