Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 6–13 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.2% 30.3–34.1% 29.8–34.7% 29.4–35.2% 28.5–36.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.3% 20.7–24.1% 20.2–24.6% 19.8–25.0% 19.1–25.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.6% 7.4–10.9% 6.9–11.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.8–10.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 25 23–28 23–28 22–29 21–30
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–24
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Eesti 200 0 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.2% 100%  
33 0.7% 99.8%  
34 2% 99.1% Last Result
35 5% 97%  
36 12% 93%  
37 14% 81%  
38 27% 67% Median
39 15% 39%  
40 11% 25%  
41 9% 14%  
42 3% 4%  
43 1.1% 1.5%  
44 0.3% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.2% 99.8%  
22 3% 98.7%  
23 8% 95%  
24 22% 87%  
25 21% 65% Median
26 19% 44% Last Result
27 14% 25%  
28 8% 11%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.6% 0.8%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 13% 95%  
19 20% 82% Last Result
20 24% 62% Median
21 20% 38%  
22 12% 18%  
23 5% 6%  
24 1.1% 1.4%  
25 0.3% 0.3%  
26 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 7% 99.5%  
8 24% 92%  
9 37% 68% Median
10 22% 31% Last Result
11 7% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 2% 100%  
6 11% 98%  
7 40% 87% Median
8 30% 47%  
9 15% 18%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Median
1 0% 19%  
2 0% 19%  
3 0% 19%  
4 7% 19%  
5 11% 12%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.0%  
2 0% 1.0%  
3 0% 1.0%  
4 0.4% 1.0%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 84 100% 80–86 80–86 79–87 77–88
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 61–66 60–67 59–67 57–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 57–62 56–63 55–63 54–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 58 100% 55–61 54–62 54–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 48 14% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 14% 45–51 45–52 44–53 43–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 47 5% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 2% 43–49 43–50 42–50 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.5% 43–48 42–49 41–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 33–38 32–39 31–40 30–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 34 0% 32–37 31–37 31–38 29–39
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–31 26–32 26–33 24–34

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 1.2% 99.5%  
79 3% 98% Last Result
80 6% 96%  
81 5% 90%  
82 9% 84%  
83 20% 75% Median
84 17% 55%  
85 25% 38%  
86 9% 13%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 97% Last Result
61 8% 92%  
62 14% 84%  
63 21% 70% Median
64 16% 49%  
65 16% 33%  
66 9% 17%  
67 6% 8%  
68 2% 2%  
69 0.5% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.9% 99.8%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 6% 96%  
57 11% 90%  
58 20% 79% Median
59 19% 59%  
60 12% 39%  
61 14% 28%  
62 8% 13%  
63 4% 6%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.3% Last Result
54 4% 98%  
55 5% 95%  
56 9% 90%  
57 15% 80%  
58 21% 66% Median
59 20% 45%  
60 9% 25%  
61 10% 16%  
62 4% 6%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 8% 96%  
46 12% 88%  
47 17% 76% Median
48 16% 59%  
49 15% 42%  
50 13% 27%  
51 7% 14% Majority
52 3% 6%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 8% 96%  
46 12% 88%  
47 17% 76% Median
48 16% 59%  
49 15% 42%  
50 13% 27%  
51 7% 14% Majority
52 3% 6%  
53 3% 3%  
54 0.5% 0.8%  
55 0.3% 0.3%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.9%  
44 5% 96% Last Result
45 10% 90%  
46 17% 80%  
47 19% 63% Median
48 16% 44%  
49 13% 28%  
50 9% 15%  
51 4% 5% Majority
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.3% 99.8%  
42 1.5% 98%  
43 8% 97%  
44 9% 89%  
45 19% 80% Median
46 17% 61%  
47 18% 45%  
48 11% 26%  
49 8% 15%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.4% 2% Majority
52 0.7% 0.9%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.9%  
42 4% 95%  
43 10% 91%  
44 15% 81%  
45 20% 66% Last Result, Median
46 16% 46%  
47 17% 30%  
48 6% 13%  
49 5% 7%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 1.0% 99.8%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 8% 96%  
37 11% 88%  
38 24% 77% Median
39 14% 54%  
40 13% 40%  
41 12% 27%  
42 8% 15%  
43 4% 8%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.8% 1.2%  
46 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.0%  
32 5% 97%  
33 15% 92%  
34 17% 76% Median
35 12% 59%  
36 22% 47%  
37 12% 25%  
38 5% 13%  
39 4% 8%  
40 3% 4%  
41 0.6% 1.0%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 4% 98%  
32 10% 93%  
33 20% 83%  
34 19% 64% Median
35 13% 45%  
36 20% 32% Last Result
37 7% 12%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.4% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 6% 98%  
27 13% 92%  
28 16% 78%  
29 25% 62% Last Result, Median
30 14% 37%  
31 14% 24%  
32 6% 9%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations