Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 1–15 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 25.0% 23.2–26.9% 22.6–27.5% 22.2–28.0% 21.4–28.9%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 24.1% 22.3–26.0% 21.8–26.5% 21.3–27.0% 20.5–28.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.4–19.4% 13.7–20.2%
Eesti 200 4.4% 12.0% 10.7–13.5% 10.3–14.0% 10.0–14.4% 9.4–15.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.2% 9.0–11.6% 8.6–12.0% 8.4–12.4% 7.8–13.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.0–6.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.6–4.5%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.9% 0.6–1.5% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 26 29 27–32 26–32 25–33 24–35
Eesti Reformierakond 34 28 25–31 25–31 24–32 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 16–21 16–21 15–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 13 11–14 11–15 10–16 9–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 11 9–12 9–13 8–13 8–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.7% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.2%  
26 7% 97% Last Result
27 8% 90%  
28 14% 82%  
29 27% 68% Median
30 16% 42%  
31 14% 26%  
32 7% 12%  
33 2% 4%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.5% 0.6%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.8%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 7% 97%  
26 10% 90%  
27 19% 80%  
28 21% 60% Median
29 15% 39%  
30 14% 24%  
31 5% 10%  
32 4% 5%  
33 0.7% 1.0%  
34 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 7% 97%  
17 11% 90%  
18 26% 79%  
19 26% 53% Last Result, Median
20 15% 27%  
21 8% 12%  
22 2% 4%  
23 0.9% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 100%  
10 3% 99.5%  
11 15% 96%  
12 23% 81%  
13 30% 58% Median
14 19% 28%  
15 7% 9%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.6% 0.7%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.3% 100%  
8 4% 99.7%  
9 16% 96%  
10 24% 80% Last Result
11 31% 56% Median
12 18% 25%  
13 5% 7%  
14 1.2% 1.4%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 70% 100% Median
1 0% 30%  
2 0% 30%  
3 0% 30%  
4 3% 30%  
5 23% 27%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 76 100% 72–79 72–80 71–80 69–81
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 57 99.7% 54–60 53–61 52–62 51–63
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 49 30% 46–53 45–54 45–54 43–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 48 17% 45–52 44–52 43–53 42–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 48 11% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 4% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 38–44 37–45 37–46 35–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 40 0% 37–43 36–45 35–45 34–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 40 0% 37–43 36–45 35–45 34–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 40 0% 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 36–41 35–42 34–43 33–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 29 0% 27–33 26–34 25–35 24–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 29 0% 27–32 26–33 25–33 24–34

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.7% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 99.1%  
71 3% 98%  
72 6% 95%  
73 7% 89%  
74 12% 82%  
75 11% 71%  
76 15% 60% Median
77 20% 46%  
78 10% 26%  
79 10% 15% Last Result
80 3% 5%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7% Majority
52 2% 98.9%  
53 4% 97%  
54 6% 93%  
55 9% 87%  
56 15% 78%  
57 14% 62% Median
58 16% 48%  
59 15% 32%  
60 8% 17% Last Result
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 4%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.4%  
45 3% 98%  
46 6% 95%  
47 12% 89%  
48 12% 76% Median
49 18% 65%  
50 17% 47%  
51 10% 30% Majority
52 9% 20%  
53 5% 11%  
54 4% 5%  
55 0.8% 1.4%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.3% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.6%  
43 2% 99.0%  
44 3% 97%  
45 6% 94%  
46 12% 88%  
47 16% 77% Median
48 22% 61%  
49 9% 38%  
50 13% 29%  
51 7% 17% Majority
52 6% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.7% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 3% 98.9%  
44 5% 96%  
45 8% 91% Last Result
46 12% 83%  
47 16% 72%  
48 14% 56% Median
49 18% 42%  
50 13% 24%  
51 5% 11% Majority
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.5% 0.6%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 3% 98.5%  
43 4% 96%  
44 8% 92%  
45 13% 84%  
46 14% 71%  
47 20% 57% Median
48 22% 37%  
49 6% 16%  
50 5% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.5% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.4%  
37 3% 98%  
38 5% 95%  
39 9% 90%  
40 15% 81% Median
41 18% 65%  
42 18% 48%  
43 13% 30%  
44 7% 16%  
45 5% 9%  
46 3% 5%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 3% 97%  
37 8% 94%  
38 12% 87%  
39 17% 75% Median
40 13% 58%  
41 17% 45%  
42 11% 28%  
43 8% 17%  
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 3% 97%  
37 8% 94%  
38 12% 87%  
39 17% 75% Median
40 13% 58%  
41 17% 45%  
42 11% 28%  
43 8% 17%  
44 4% 9%  
45 3% 5%  
46 1.4% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.8%  
35 1.4% 99.0%  
36 4% 98% Last Result
37 8% 93%  
38 13% 85%  
39 13% 72%  
40 18% 59% Median
41 17% 41%  
42 13% 24%  
43 6% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 1.1% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 3% 99.2%  
35 5% 97%  
36 8% 92%  
37 14% 84%  
38 18% 70%  
39 17% 53% Median
40 13% 36%  
41 13% 23%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.0% 1.3% Last Result
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.9% 99.8%  
25 3% 98.9%  
26 6% 96%  
27 13% 90%  
28 16% 77% Median
29 13% 62%  
30 16% 48%  
31 8% 33%  
32 10% 24%  
33 7% 14%  
34 3% 7%  
35 2% 3%  
36 0.6% 0.9%  
37 0.3% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.8% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.1%  
26 5% 97%  
27 11% 92%  
28 15% 81%  
29 20% 66% Last Result
30 19% 46% Median
31 14% 27%  
32 8% 13%  
33 3% 5%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations