Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 14–20 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 25.0% 23.3–26.8% 22.8–27.3% 22.4–27.8% 21.6–28.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.2% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.3% 15.0–19.7% 14.3–20.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–10.9% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–11.9%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 5.0–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.4–8.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 33 31–35 30–36 30–36 28–38
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 25–30 25–30 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 18 16–20 16–20 15–21 15–22
Eesti 200 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.5%  
30 7% 98%  
31 14% 91%  
32 21% 77%  
33 22% 56% Median
34 17% 34% Last Result
35 9% 17%  
36 6% 8%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.7%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.2%  
25 8% 97%  
26 16% 89% Last Result
27 25% 73% Median
28 22% 48%  
29 14% 26%  
30 8% 12%  
31 3% 4%  
32 0.7% 1.0%  
33 0.3% 0.3%  
34 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 3% 99.6%  
16 10% 96%  
17 24% 86%  
18 26% 62% Median
19 22% 36% Last Result
20 9% 13%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.7% 0.9%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.6% 100%  
7 9% 99.4%  
8 25% 91%  
9 40% 66% Median
10 20% 26%  
11 5% 6%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.9% 100%  
7 12% 99.1%  
8 29% 87%  
9 39% 58% Median
10 15% 19% Last Result
11 4% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 0% 93%  
4 7% 93%  
5 43% 87% Median
6 35% 44%  
7 8% 9%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 76–81 76–82 75–83 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 58–63 57–64 57–64 56–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.5% 54–58 53–59 52–60 50–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 51 55% 48–54 48–55 47–55 46–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 51 51% 48–53 47–54 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.7% 43–48 42–48 42–49 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–44 38–45 38–45 37–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 41 0% 38–44 37–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–42 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–38 33–39 33–40 32–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 25–29 24–29 24–30 23–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.9% 99.8%  
75 3% 98.8%  
76 9% 96%  
77 25% 87%  
78 23% 62% Median
79 15% 40% Last Result
80 14% 25%  
81 5% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.9% 1.2%  
85 0.3% 0.3%  
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.5%  
57 6% 98%  
58 8% 91%  
59 12% 84%  
60 30% 72% Last Result, Median
61 20% 42%  
62 8% 22%  
63 6% 14%  
64 6% 8%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.0%  
67 0.4% 0.4%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.9% 99.5% Majority
52 2% 98.6%  
53 6% 96%  
54 13% 91%  
55 18% 77%  
56 20% 59% Median
57 18% 39%  
58 11% 21%  
59 7% 10%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.8%  
47 3% 99.0%  
48 8% 96%  
49 16% 88%  
50 18% 72%  
51 22% 55% Median, Majority
52 13% 33%  
53 8% 20% Last Result
54 6% 12%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.9% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 5% 97%  
48 8% 92%  
49 7% 85%  
50 26% 77% Median
51 17% 51% Majority
52 17% 34%  
53 9% 16%  
54 5% 7%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 7% 95%  
45 15% 87%  
46 20% 72%  
47 19% 53% Median
48 17% 33%  
49 10% 16%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.8%  
42 1.2% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 7% 95%  
45 15% 87%  
46 20% 72%  
47 19% 53% Median
48 17% 33%  
49 10% 16%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.3% 99.4%  
42 4% 98%  
43 9% 95%  
44 14% 86%  
45 23% 71% Last Result, Median
46 19% 48%  
47 14% 28%  
48 10% 14%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.3% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 1.1% 99.8%  
38 4% 98.7%  
39 10% 95%  
40 15% 85%  
41 21% 70%  
42 23% 49% Median
43 11% 27%  
44 8% 16% Last Result
45 6% 8%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.6%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 1.2% 99.6%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 7% 89%  
40 10% 82%  
41 23% 72% Median
42 24% 49%  
43 11% 25%  
44 9% 14%  
45 4% 5%  
46 0.7% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1% Last Result
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 1.0% 99.4%  
34 2% 98%  
35 6% 96%  
36 11% 91%  
37 22% 80%  
38 15% 58% Median
39 23% 43%  
40 12% 20%  
41 5% 8%  
42 3% 3%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 1.3% 99.5%  
33 6% 98%  
34 10% 92%  
35 16% 82%  
36 25% 66% Last Result, Median
37 19% 42%  
38 13% 22%  
39 5% 9%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.5%  
24 7% 98%  
25 11% 90%  
26 29% 79%  
27 19% 50% Median
28 18% 31%  
29 7% 12% Last Result
30 4% 5%  
31 0.8% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations