Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 22–26 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 35.1% 33.2–37.1% 32.7–37.6% 32.2–38.1% 31.3–39.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 41 38–43 38–44 37–45 36–46
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–24 19–25 19–26 18–26
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 13–17 12–17 12–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 9 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 5–8 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100% Last Result
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 3% 98.9%  
38 8% 96%  
39 13% 88%  
40 20% 75%  
41 21% 56% Median
42 14% 34%  
43 12% 20%  
44 5% 8%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 5% 98.9%  
20 14% 94%  
21 20% 79%  
22 22% 59% Median
23 15% 37%  
24 13% 22%  
25 5% 9%  
26 3% 3% Last Result
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.5% 100%  
12 5% 99.5%  
13 12% 95%  
14 26% 82%  
15 28% 57% Median
16 15% 28%  
17 10% 13%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 1.5% 100%  
7 12% 98%  
8 33% 87%  
9 32% 54% Median
10 17% 21%  
11 4% 4%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 18% 97%  
8 37% 79% Median
9 30% 41%  
10 10% 12% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 0% 99.4%  
4 0.8% 99.4%  
5 19% 98.6%  
6 30% 80%  
7 34% 50% Median
8 14% 16%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 78 100% 75–80 75–80 74–81 73–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 63 100% 60–66 60–66 59–67 58–68
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 62 100% 60–64 59–65 58–66 57–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 56 99.5% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 56 99.5% 53–58 52–59 52–60 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 56 99.6% 53–58 52–59 52–59 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 49 25% 47–52 46–53 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 47 6% 45–50 44–51 43–51 42–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–33 27–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–27 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 3% 99.4%  
75 9% 97%  
76 15% 87%  
77 19% 72%  
78 21% 54% Median
79 19% 32% Last Result
80 10% 13%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.8% 1.3%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 3% 99.3%  
60 11% 96% Last Result
61 17% 86%  
62 17% 69%  
63 13% 51% Median
64 13% 38%  
65 12% 25%  
66 9% 13%  
67 2% 4%  
68 1.1% 1.3%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.7% 99.8%  
58 3% 99.0%  
59 6% 96%  
60 12% 90%  
61 17% 79%  
62 22% 61%  
63 18% 40% Median
64 12% 22%  
65 6% 10% Last Result
66 3% 4%  
67 0.6% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 9% 94%  
54 15% 85%  
55 18% 70%  
56 21% 52% Last Result, Median
57 15% 31%  
58 9% 16%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 1.4% 99.5% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 9% 94%  
54 15% 85%  
55 18% 70%  
56 21% 52% Last Result, Median
57 15% 31%  
58 9% 16%  
59 4% 7%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.3% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 1.2% 99.6% Majority
52 4% 98%  
53 9% 95% Last Result
54 13% 86%  
55 22% 73%  
56 21% 51% Median
57 13% 30%  
58 9% 16%  
59 5% 7%  
60 1.5% 2%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
45 2% 99.1%  
46 6% 97%  
47 11% 91%  
48 19% 80%  
49 20% 61% Median
50 16% 41%  
51 14% 25% Majority
52 6% 11%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.2%  
44 4% 97%  
45 13% 93%  
46 15% 80% Last Result
47 19% 65%  
48 20% 46% Median
49 14% 26%  
50 6% 12%  
51 4% 6% Majority
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.3%  
40 5% 97%  
41 14% 92%  
42 14% 79%  
43 19% 65%  
44 19% 46% Median
45 16% 27%  
46 7% 12%  
47 4% 5%  
48 0.9% 1.1%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 1.1% 99.8%  
33 3% 98.7%  
34 9% 96%  
35 11% 87%  
36 21% 75%  
37 16% 55% Median
38 20% 39%  
39 11% 19%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.9% 99.7%  
33 2% 98.8%  
34 8% 97%  
35 13% 88%  
36 23% 76%  
37 17% 53% Median
38 17% 35%  
39 11% 18%  
40 5% 7%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 5% 98.7%  
28 12% 94%  
29 17% 82%  
30 20% 66% Median
31 20% 46%  
32 13% 26%  
33 9% 13%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.2% 1.4%  
36 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.3% 99.9%  
20 4% 98.6%  
21 11% 94%  
22 21% 83%  
23 25% 62% Median
24 17% 37%  
25 11% 20%  
26 6% 9%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations