Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 October–2 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 31.5% 29.7–33.4% 29.1–34.0% 28.7–34.4% 27.8–35.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 18.2% 16.7–19.8% 16.3–20.3% 15.9–20.7% 15.2–21.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.9–12.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 37 35–40 33–41 33–41 32–43
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 21–26 21–26 20–27 19–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 20 18–22 17–23 17–23 16–25
Eesti 200 0 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–13
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.7% 99.7%  
33 4% 99.0%  
34 5% 95% Last Result
35 9% 90%  
36 19% 81%  
37 14% 62% Median
38 15% 47%  
39 15% 32%  
40 10% 17%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 3% 99.2%  
21 7% 96%  
22 16% 89%  
23 22% 73%  
24 25% 51% Median
25 12% 26%  
26 10% 14% Last Result
27 3% 5%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.8%  
17 5% 98.9%  
18 8% 94%  
19 24% 86% Last Result
20 21% 62% Median
21 24% 41%  
22 10% 17%  
23 5% 7%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.5% 100%  
8 6% 99.5%  
9 19% 94%  
10 33% 74% Median
11 27% 41%  
12 11% 14%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 31% 93%  
7 36% 62% Median
8 22% 26%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 0% 44%  
4 9% 44%  
5 30% 35%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 81 100% 77–84 76–85 75–86 74–86
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 61 100% 58–64 56–65 56–66 55–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 60 100% 56–62 55–63 55–64 53–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 57 99.7% 54–61 53–61 53–62 51–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 46 5% 43–50 42–50 42–51 40–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 5% 43–50 42–50 42–51 40–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 3% 43–49 42–50 41–51 39–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 44 0.3% 41–47 40–48 39–49 38–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 43 0.1% 41–47 40–48 39–48 38–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–43 36–44 35–44 33–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 29–36 29–36 28–37 27–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 28–33 27–34 27–34 26–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 25–29 24–30 23–31 22–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 1.0% 99.5%  
75 2% 98.5%  
76 3% 97%  
77 5% 94%  
78 6% 89%  
79 15% 83% Last Result
80 12% 67%  
81 11% 56% Median
82 10% 45%  
83 14% 35%  
84 13% 20%  
85 5% 8%  
86 2% 3%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.5%  
56 4% 98%  
57 4% 94%  
58 8% 90%  
59 11% 82%  
60 15% 71% Last Result
61 15% 56% Median
62 11% 41%  
63 15% 30%  
64 8% 15%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.3%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 9% 90% Median
58 13% 81%  
59 15% 68%  
60 19% 54%  
61 14% 35%  
62 12% 21%  
63 5% 9%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7% Majority
52 1.2% 98.9%  
53 4% 98% Last Result
54 6% 94%  
55 12% 88%  
56 12% 76%  
57 17% 64% Median
58 12% 47%  
59 12% 35%  
60 12% 23%  
61 6% 10%  
62 3% 5%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 1.5% 99.2%  
42 5% 98%  
43 5% 93%  
44 9% 88% Median
45 15% 78%  
46 15% 63%  
47 16% 48%  
48 15% 32%  
49 7% 17%  
50 6% 11%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.2% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 1.5% 99.2%  
42 5% 98%  
43 5% 93%  
44 9% 88% Median
45 15% 78%  
46 15% 63%  
47 16% 48%  
48 15% 32%  
49 7% 17%  
50 6% 11%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.0% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.5%  
41 3% 98.5%  
42 4% 96%  
43 13% 92%  
44 10% 79% Median
45 19% 70%  
46 11% 51%  
47 11% 40%  
48 13% 28%  
49 8% 15%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.5%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 94%  
42 12% 87%  
43 16% 75%  
44 13% 59% Last Result, Median
45 15% 46%  
46 14% 31%  
47 9% 17%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.3% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.7% 99.8%  
39 3% 99.0%  
40 6% 96%  
41 8% 90%  
42 10% 83%  
43 23% 73%  
44 13% 50% Median
45 20% 37% Last Result
46 7% 17%  
47 5% 10%  
48 4% 5%  
49 1.3% 2%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.8%  
34 1.4% 99.4%  
35 3% 98%  
36 8% 95%  
37 8% 87% Median
38 13% 79%  
39 17% 66%  
40 15% 49%  
41 14% 34%  
42 9% 20%  
43 6% 11%  
44 4% 6%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.9%  
29 10% 96%  
30 8% 86%  
31 15% 78% Median
32 14% 64%  
33 11% 50%  
34 16% 39%  
35 8% 23%  
36 10% 15%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.2% 2%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.4% 99.9%  
26 1.4% 99.5%  
27 5% 98%  
28 8% 93%  
29 22% 85%  
30 13% 63%  
31 23% 50% Median
32 13% 27%  
33 6% 14%  
34 6% 8%  
35 1.4% 2%  
36 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 3% 99.3%  
24 6% 97%  
25 12% 91%  
26 23% 79%  
27 17% 55% Median
28 18% 38%  
29 12% 21% Last Result
30 6% 9%  
31 2% 3%  
32 0.5% 0.7%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations