Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 27 October–2 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
31.5% |
29.7–33.4% |
29.1–34.0% |
28.7–34.4% |
27.8–35.4% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
21.0% |
19.4–22.7% |
19.0–23.2% |
18.6–23.6% |
17.8–24.5% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
18.2% |
16.7–19.8% |
16.3–20.3% |
15.9–20.7% |
15.2–21.5% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
10.1% |
9.0–11.4% |
8.6–11.8% |
8.4–12.1% |
7.9–12.8% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
7.2% |
6.2–8.4% |
6.0–8.7% |
5.7–9.0% |
5.3–9.6% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
4.9% |
4.1–5.9% |
3.9–6.2% |
3.7–6.4% |
3.4–6.9% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
2.5% |
2.0–3.3% |
1.8–3.5% |
1.7–3.7% |
1.5–4.1% |
Eesti Vabaerakond |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.2–0.7% |
0.1–0.8% |
0.1–0.9% |
0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats


Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.7% |
99.7% |
|
33 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
34 |
5% |
95% |
Last Result |
35 |
9% |
90% |
|
36 |
19% |
81% |
|
37 |
14% |
62% |
Median |
38 |
15% |
47% |
|
39 |
15% |
32% |
|
40 |
10% |
17% |
|
41 |
4% |
7% |
|
42 |
2% |
2% |
|
43 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
19 |
0.7% |
99.9% |
|
20 |
3% |
99.2% |
|
21 |
7% |
96% |
|
22 |
16% |
89% |
|
23 |
22% |
73% |
|
24 |
25% |
51% |
Median |
25 |
12% |
26% |
|
26 |
10% |
14% |
Last Result |
27 |
3% |
5% |
|
28 |
1.1% |
2% |
|
29 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
5% |
98.9% |
|
18 |
8% |
94% |
|
19 |
24% |
86% |
Last Result |
20 |
21% |
62% |
Median |
21 |
24% |
41% |
|
22 |
10% |
17% |
|
23 |
5% |
7% |
|
24 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
25 |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
26 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
27 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
8 |
6% |
99.5% |
|
9 |
19% |
94% |
|
10 |
33% |
74% |
Median |
11 |
27% |
41% |
|
12 |
11% |
14% |
|
13 |
2% |
3% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
3 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
4 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
5 |
6% |
99.8% |
|
6 |
31% |
93% |
|
7 |
36% |
62% |
Median |
8 |
22% |
26% |
|
9 |
4% |
4% |
|
10 |
0.5% |
0.5% |
Last Result |
11 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
56% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
44% |
|
2 |
0% |
44% |
|
3 |
0% |
44% |
|
4 |
9% |
44% |
|
5 |
30% |
35% |
|
6 |
5% |
5% |
|
7 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
79 |
81 |
100% |
77–84 |
76–85 |
75–86 |
74–86 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
61 |
100% |
58–64 |
56–65 |
56–66 |
55–67 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
60 |
100% |
56–62 |
55–63 |
55–64 |
53–65 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
57 |
99.7% |
54–61 |
53–61 |
53–62 |
51–63 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond |
56 |
46 |
5% |
43–50 |
42–50 |
42–51 |
40–53 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
46 |
5% |
43–50 |
42–50 |
42–51 |
40–53 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
46 |
3% |
43–49 |
42–50 |
41–51 |
39–52 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
44 |
0.3% |
41–47 |
40–48 |
39–49 |
38–50 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
45 |
43 |
0.1% |
41–47 |
40–48 |
39–48 |
38–49 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
39 |
0% |
36–43 |
36–44 |
35–44 |
33–46 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
32 |
0% |
29–36 |
29–36 |
28–37 |
27–39 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
30 |
0% |
28–33 |
27–34 |
27–34 |
26–36 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
27 |
0% |
25–29 |
24–30 |
23–31 |
22–32 |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
72 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
74 |
1.0% |
99.5% |
|
75 |
2% |
98.5% |
|
76 |
3% |
97% |
|
77 |
5% |
94% |
|
78 |
6% |
89% |
|
79 |
15% |
83% |
Last Result |
80 |
12% |
67% |
|
81 |
11% |
56% |
Median |
82 |
10% |
45% |
|
83 |
14% |
35% |
|
84 |
13% |
20% |
|
85 |
5% |
8% |
|
86 |
2% |
3% |
|
87 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
88 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
52 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
54 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
55 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
56 |
4% |
98% |
|
57 |
4% |
94% |
|
58 |
8% |
90% |
|
59 |
11% |
82% |
|
60 |
15% |
71% |
Last Result |
61 |
15% |
56% |
Median |
62 |
11% |
41% |
|
63 |
15% |
30% |
|
64 |
8% |
15% |
|
65 |
4% |
7% |
|
66 |
2% |
3% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
69 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
53 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
54 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
55 |
3% |
98% |
|
56 |
5% |
95% |
|
57 |
9% |
90% |
Median |
58 |
13% |
81% |
|
59 |
15% |
68% |
|
60 |
19% |
54% |
|
61 |
14% |
35% |
|
62 |
12% |
21% |
|
63 |
5% |
9% |
|
64 |
3% |
4% |
|
65 |
0.9% |
1.3% |
Last Result |
66 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
67 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
68 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
49 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
Majority |
52 |
1.2% |
98.9% |
|
53 |
4% |
98% |
Last Result |
54 |
6% |
94% |
|
55 |
12% |
88% |
|
56 |
12% |
76% |
|
57 |
17% |
64% |
Median |
58 |
12% |
47% |
|
59 |
12% |
35% |
|
60 |
12% |
23% |
|
61 |
6% |
10% |
|
62 |
3% |
5% |
|
63 |
1.1% |
1.4% |
|
64 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
1.5% |
99.2% |
|
42 |
5% |
98% |
|
43 |
5% |
93% |
|
44 |
9% |
88% |
Median |
45 |
15% |
78% |
|
46 |
15% |
63% |
|
47 |
16% |
48% |
|
48 |
15% |
32% |
|
49 |
7% |
17% |
|
50 |
6% |
11% |
|
51 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
52 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
39 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
41 |
1.5% |
99.2% |
|
42 |
5% |
98% |
|
43 |
5% |
93% |
|
44 |
9% |
88% |
Median |
45 |
15% |
78% |
|
46 |
15% |
63% |
|
47 |
16% |
48% |
|
48 |
15% |
32% |
|
49 |
7% |
17% |
|
50 |
6% |
11% |
|
51 |
3% |
5% |
Majority |
52 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
53 |
0.4% |
0.5% |
|
54 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
41 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
42 |
4% |
96% |
|
43 |
13% |
92% |
|
44 |
10% |
79% |
Median |
45 |
19% |
70% |
|
46 |
11% |
51% |
|
47 |
11% |
40% |
|
48 |
13% |
28% |
|
49 |
8% |
15% |
|
50 |
4% |
7% |
|
51 |
2% |
3% |
Majority |
52 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
40 |
3% |
97% |
|
41 |
7% |
94% |
|
42 |
12% |
87% |
|
43 |
16% |
75% |
|
44 |
13% |
59% |
Last Result, Median |
45 |
15% |
46% |
|
46 |
14% |
31% |
|
47 |
9% |
17% |
|
48 |
4% |
8% |
|
49 |
2% |
3% |
|
50 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
0.7% |
99.8% |
|
39 |
3% |
99.0% |
|
40 |
6% |
96% |
|
41 |
8% |
90% |
|
42 |
10% |
83% |
|
43 |
23% |
73% |
|
44 |
13% |
50% |
Median |
45 |
20% |
37% |
Last Result |
46 |
7% |
17% |
|
47 |
5% |
10% |
|
48 |
4% |
5% |
|
49 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
50 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
32 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
33 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
35 |
3% |
98% |
|
36 |
8% |
95% |
|
37 |
8% |
87% |
Median |
38 |
13% |
79% |
|
39 |
17% |
66% |
|
40 |
15% |
49% |
|
41 |
14% |
34% |
|
42 |
9% |
20% |
|
43 |
6% |
11% |
|
44 |
4% |
6% |
|
45 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
46 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
47 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
3% |
98.9% |
|
29 |
10% |
96% |
|
30 |
8% |
86% |
|
31 |
15% |
78% |
Median |
32 |
14% |
64% |
|
33 |
11% |
50% |
|
34 |
16% |
39% |
|
35 |
8% |
23% |
|
36 |
10% |
15% |
|
37 |
3% |
5% |
|
38 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
39 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
41 |
0% |
0% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
25 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
26 |
1.4% |
99.5% |
|
27 |
5% |
98% |
|
28 |
8% |
93% |
|
29 |
22% |
85% |
|
30 |
13% |
63% |
|
31 |
23% |
50% |
Median |
32 |
13% |
27% |
|
33 |
6% |
14% |
|
34 |
6% |
8% |
|
35 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
Last Result |
37 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
21 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
22 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
23 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
6% |
97% |
|
25 |
12% |
91% |
|
26 |
23% |
79% |
|
27 |
17% |
55% |
Median |
28 |
18% |
38% |
|
29 |
12% |
21% |
Last Result |
30 |
6% |
9% |
|
31 |
2% |
3% |
|
32 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
33 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 27 October–2 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%