Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 3–9 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 26.9–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.5% 22.8–26.3% 22.3–26.8% 21.9–27.3% 21.1–28.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.5% 15.1–18.1% 14.7–18.5% 14.3–18.9% 13.7–19.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 11.4% 10.2–12.8% 9.9–13.2% 9.6–13.5% 9.0–14.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.1% 8.0–10.4% 7.7–10.7% 7.5–11.1% 7.0–11.7%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 27 25–30 25–31 24–31 23–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 15–20 15–21 14–22
Eesti 200 0 11 10–13 10–14 9–14 9–15
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 5% 97%  
32 11% 93%  
33 17% 82%  
34 20% 65% Last Result, Median
35 18% 45%  
36 12% 27%  
37 11% 15%  
38 3% 4%  
39 1.1% 1.5%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.8% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.1%  
25 9% 96%  
26 15% 87% Last Result
27 25% 72% Median
28 17% 47%  
29 15% 31%  
30 10% 16%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.2% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.9%  
15 6% 98.7%  
16 15% 93%  
17 32% 78% Median
18 24% 46%  
19 12% 22% Last Result
20 7% 10%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.5% 0.6%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 15% 97%  
11 35% 82% Median
12 28% 46%  
13 14% 19%  
14 4% 5%  
15 1.3% 1.4%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.7% 100%  
7 7% 99.2%  
8 29% 92%  
9 37% 63% Median
10 18% 26% Last Result
11 7% 9%  
12 1.5% 2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Median
1 0% 27%  
2 0% 27%  
3 0% 27%  
4 10% 27%  
5 16% 17%  
6 0.9% 0.9%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 80 100% 76–82 75–83 75–83 74–84
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 62 100% 59–65 58–65 57–66 56–67
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 87% 50–56 49–57 49–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 52 71% 49–54 49–55 48–56 46–57
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 3% 44–49 43–50 42–51 41–52
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 45 0.5% 42–48 42–49 41–49 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 45 0.3% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 45 0.3% 42–47 41–48 40–48 39–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 35–40 34–41 33–42 32–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 36 0% 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 33–39 32–39 31–40 30–41
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–29 24–29 23–30 22–31

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.6%  
75 3% 98%  
76 11% 95%  
77 7% 84%  
78 11% 77% Median
79 12% 66% Last Result
80 14% 53%  
81 23% 40%  
82 11% 17%  
83 5% 5%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.2% 100%  
56 0.6% 99.8%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 6% 97%  
59 12% 91%  
60 10% 79% Last Result
61 12% 70% Median
62 14% 58%  
63 15% 44%  
64 16% 29%  
65 9% 13%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.8% 0.9%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 1.1% 99.5%  
49 4% 98%  
50 7% 95%  
51 12% 87% Median, Majority
52 13% 75%  
53 20% 62%  
54 17% 42%  
55 12% 25%  
56 7% 13%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.1% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.7% 99.9%  
47 1.5% 99.2%  
48 3% 98%  
49 10% 95%  
50 15% 86%  
51 15% 71% Median, Majority
52 16% 56%  
53 17% 40% Last Result
54 14% 23%  
55 5% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.1%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.3% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.6%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 5% 97%  
44 16% 91% Median
45 13% 75%  
46 16% 62%  
47 17% 46%  
48 13% 30%  
49 9% 17%  
50 5% 8%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.5%  
41 2% 98.5%  
42 9% 96%  
43 10% 88%  
44 21% 78% Median
45 17% 57% Last Result
46 15% 41%  
47 12% 25%  
48 7% 13%  
49 5% 6%  
50 0.8% 1.3%  
51 0.4% 0.5% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 7% 97%  
42 11% 90%  
43 13% 80% Median
44 16% 67%  
45 17% 51%  
46 17% 34%  
47 8% 17%  
48 6% 8%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.8% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.0%  
41 7% 97%  
42 11% 90%  
43 13% 80% Median
44 16% 67%  
45 17% 51%  
46 17% 34%  
47 8% 17%  
48 6% 8%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.5% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.3% 100%  
38 1.2% 99.7%  
39 3% 98.5%  
40 6% 96%  
41 12% 90%  
42 17% 78%  
43 16% 61% Median
44 16% 45% Last Result
45 13% 29%  
46 11% 16%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.8% 99.9%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 4% 97%  
35 8% 93%  
36 13% 85% Median
37 15% 72%  
38 19% 56%  
39 19% 37%  
40 11% 18%  
41 4% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.6% 1.2%  
44 0.4% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 4% 98%  
34 12% 93%  
35 14% 82%  
36 18% 67% Last Result, Median
37 16% 49%  
38 18% 33%  
39 9% 15%  
40 4% 6%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.6% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 5% 97%  
33 10% 92%  
34 15% 82% Median
35 17% 66%  
36 16% 50%  
37 15% 34%  
38 8% 18%  
39 7% 10%  
40 2% 4%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 3% 99.2%  
24 9% 96%  
25 15% 86%  
26 26% 72% Median
27 19% 45%  
28 15% 26%  
29 7% 11% Last Result
30 3% 4%  
31 0.8% 1.0%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations