Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 30 October–9 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 24.0% 22.2–26.0% 21.7–26.5% 21.3–27.0% 20.4–27.9%
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 23.0% 21.2–24.9% 20.7–25.4% 20.3–25.9% 19.4–26.8%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.0% 13.5–16.7% 13.1–17.1% 12.7–17.5% 12.1–18.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.0% 11.6–14.6% 11.2–15.0% 10.9–15.4% 10.3–16.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 8.7–11.4% 8.4–11.8% 8.1–12.1% 7.6–12.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5% 4.6–7.8% 4.2–8.4%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.9–5.5% 2.5–6.0%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.7–1.7% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–2.0% 0.4–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond 26 28 25–30 25–31 24–32 23–33
Eesti Reformierakond 34 26 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 10–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–12 8–12 8–13 7–14
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 4–7 0–7 0–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.2% 100%  
23 1.3% 99.8%  
24 3% 98%  
25 8% 96%  
26 14% 87% Last Result
27 15% 73%  
28 20% 58% Median
29 16% 38%  
30 12% 22%  
31 7% 10%  
32 2% 3%  
33 1.0% 1.3%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.5% 99.6%  
23 4% 98%  
24 12% 94%  
25 15% 81%  
26 18% 66% Median
27 19% 48%  
28 15% 29%  
29 7% 14%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.7%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.3% 100%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 9% 98%  
15 23% 89%  
16 25% 66% Median
17 19% 41%  
18 11% 21%  
19 7% 10% Last Result
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.6% 100%  
11 4% 99.4%  
12 12% 95%  
13 24% 83%  
14 24% 59% Median
15 20% 36%  
16 12% 16%  
17 3% 4%  
18 1.0% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.8% 100%  
8 6% 99.1%  
9 24% 93%  
10 28% 69% Last Result, Median
11 25% 41%  
12 11% 16%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 1.4% 90%  
5 35% 89%  
6 36% 54% Median
7 15% 18%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 0% 7%  
4 2% 7%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.4% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 70 100% 67–74 66–75 65–76 63–79
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond 60 54 94% 51–58 50–58 49–60 48–61
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 50 33% 46–52 45–53 44–54 42–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 48 18% 45–52 44–52 43–53 41–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 44 0.6% 41–47 40–48 40–49 38–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 43 0.1% 40–47 39–47 38–48 36–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 42 0.1% 40–46 39–47 38–47 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–46 35–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–46 35–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 38 0% 35–41 34–42 34–43 32–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 36 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 32 0% 29–35 28–35 27–36 25–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 24–29 23–30 23–30 22–32

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.4%  
65 1.3% 98.6%  
66 3% 97%  
67 6% 94%  
68 11% 88%  
69 10% 77%  
70 18% 67% Median
71 16% 49%  
72 10% 34%  
73 11% 23%  
74 5% 12%  
75 4% 8%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.5% 0.5% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.9% 99.7%  
49 2% 98.8%  
50 3% 97%  
51 8% 94% Majority
52 11% 86%  
53 13% 75%  
54 18% 62% Median
55 13% 44%  
56 12% 31%  
57 6% 19%  
58 7% 12%  
59 2% 5%  
60 1.5% 3% Last Result
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.5%  
44 2% 98.8%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 93%  
47 11% 88%  
48 12% 78%  
49 13% 66%  
50 19% 52% Median
51 13% 33% Majority
52 10% 20%  
53 6% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.7%  
42 0.9% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 97%  
45 8% 93%  
46 10% 84%  
47 17% 74%  
48 23% 58% Median
49 9% 35%  
50 7% 25%  
51 8% 18% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.3%  
40 5% 98%  
41 7% 93%  
42 10% 86%  
43 13% 76%  
44 20% 63% Median
45 12% 42% Last Result
46 14% 30%  
47 8% 16%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.5% 1.2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.4%  
38 2% 98%  
39 3% 97%  
40 6% 93%  
41 10% 88%  
42 13% 78%  
43 17% 65%  
44 16% 49% Median
45 13% 33%  
46 9% 20%  
47 8% 11%  
48 3% 4% Last Result
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.1%  
39 5% 97%  
40 10% 92%  
41 13% 82%  
42 19% 69% Median
43 16% 49%  
44 10% 34%  
45 10% 23%  
46 8% 14%  
47 4% 6%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.0%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 1.0% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 9% 92%  
40 11% 83%  
41 13% 72%  
42 19% 59% Median
43 15% 40%  
44 11% 25%  
45 8% 15%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.6%  
36 1.0% 99.1%  
37 2% 98%  
38 4% 96%  
39 9% 92%  
40 11% 83%  
41 13% 72%  
42 19% 59% Median
43 15% 40%  
44 11% 25%  
45 8% 15%  
46 4% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 3% 98%  
35 10% 95%  
36 8% 85% Last Result
37 18% 76%  
38 16% 59% Median
39 13% 42%  
40 14% 29%  
41 8% 16%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.8% 1.1%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 5% 97%  
34 10% 92%  
35 16% 82%  
36 16% 66% Median
37 13% 50%  
38 15% 37%  
39 12% 22%  
40 5% 10%  
41 2% 5%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 0.6% 99.5%  
26 1.1% 98.9%  
27 2% 98%  
28 5% 96%  
29 8% 90%  
30 10% 82%  
31 17% 72%  
32 17% 55% Median
33 18% 38%  
34 8% 19%  
35 7% 11%  
36 3% 5%  
37 0.7% 1.1%  
38 0.4% 0.4%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.0% 99.7%  
23 4% 98.7%  
24 8% 94%  
25 19% 87%  
26 19% 67% Median
27 19% 49%  
28 14% 30%  
29 9% 16% Last Result
30 5% 7%  
31 1.4% 2%  
32 0.6% 0.8%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations