Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 11–16 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.3–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.6% 18.1–21.3% 17.6–21.8% 17.3–22.2% 16.5–23.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.4% 12.1–14.9% 11.7–15.3% 11.4–15.7% 10.8–16.4%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 38 36–41 36–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 13–17 13–17 12–18 12–19
Eesti 200 0 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 1.0% 99.7% Last Result
35 3% 98.7%  
36 9% 95%  
37 16% 86%  
38 21% 70% Median
39 18% 50%  
40 17% 31%  
41 7% 14%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.6% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 5% 98.8%  
19 12% 93%  
20 24% 82%  
21 23% 58% Median
22 19% 35%  
23 9% 16%  
24 5% 6%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 10% 97%  
14 19% 87%  
15 26% 68% Median
16 27% 42%  
17 10% 14%  
18 4% 4%  
19 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 4% 99.5%  
12 13% 95%  
13 28% 82%  
14 29% 54% Median
15 19% 25%  
16 5% 7%  
17 1.1% 1.3%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.5% 100%  
6 8% 99.5%  
7 31% 92%  
8 40% 61% Median
9 16% 21%  
10 4% 5% Last Result
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 0% 92%  
4 6% 92%  
5 49% 86% Median
6 30% 37%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.6% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 74 100% 72–77 72–78 71–79 70–81
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 57–62 56–63 56–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 59 100% 56–61 55–62 55–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 54 95% 51–56 50–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 51 67% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 51 67% 49–54 48–55 47–55 46–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 46 3% 44–49 43–50 43–51 41–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 44 0% 41–46 40–47 39–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 38–44 37–44 37–45 35–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 36 0% 33–39 33–39 32–40 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 31–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–31 26–32 25–32 24–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.8% 99.8%  
71 4% 99.0%  
72 7% 95%  
73 18% 88%  
74 21% 70% Median
75 20% 49%  
76 15% 29%  
77 6% 14%  
78 4% 8%  
79 2% 4% Last Result
80 0.6% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.5%  
56 6% 98%  
57 10% 93%  
58 16% 82%  
59 17% 66% Median
60 19% 49% Last Result
61 13% 29%  
62 9% 16%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.8% 0.9%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 1.2% 99.3%  
55 4% 98%  
56 7% 94%  
57 16% 87%  
58 14% 70% Median
59 20% 56%  
60 19% 37%  
61 10% 17%  
62 5% 7%  
63 1.5% 2%  
64 0.5% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.5%  
50 4% 98%  
51 10% 95% Majority
52 14% 85%  
53 16% 70% Last Result, Median
54 19% 54%  
55 15% 35%  
56 12% 19%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.2%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 16% 83%  
51 20% 67% Median, Majority
52 20% 47%  
53 14% 27%  
54 7% 13%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.6%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 5% 97%  
49 9% 92%  
50 16% 83%  
51 20% 67% Median, Majority
52 20% 47%  
53 14% 27%  
54 7% 13%  
55 4% 6%  
56 2% 2% Last Result
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 4% 98%  
44 11% 94% Last Result
45 17% 83%  
46 21% 65% Median
47 19% 45%  
48 13% 26%  
49 7% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.9% 99.6%  
39 1.4% 98.7%  
40 5% 97%  
41 6% 93%  
42 16% 86%  
43 17% 70% Median
44 22% 53%  
45 16% 32%  
46 10% 16% Last Result
47 4% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.8%  
36 1.1% 99.2%  
37 4% 98%  
38 6% 94%  
39 8% 88%  
40 11% 80%  
41 32% 69% Median
42 14% 37%  
43 12% 23%  
44 7% 11%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.9% 1.0%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.5%  
33 7% 96%  
34 7% 90%  
35 15% 83%  
36 35% 68% Median
37 13% 32%  
38 9% 20%  
39 7% 10%  
40 3% 3%  
41 0.5% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.2% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.7%  
29 1.4% 98.8%  
30 5% 97%  
31 6% 93%  
32 12% 87%  
33 25% 75%  
34 17% 51% Median
35 15% 34%  
36 10% 19%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.5% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 7% 97%  
27 14% 90%  
28 27% 76%  
29 18% 49% Median
30 14% 31%  
31 10% 17%  
32 4% 7%  
33 2% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 5% 98%  
21 13% 94%  
22 21% 81%  
23 22% 59% Median
24 22% 37%  
25 10% 15%  
26 4% 5%  
27 1.2% 1.5%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations