Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 13–18 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.0% 26.4–29.7% 26.0–30.1% 25.6–30.5% 24.9–31.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.0% 16.7–19.5% 16.3–19.9% 16.0–20.2% 15.4–20.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.7–11.5% 8.5–11.8% 8.0–12.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.0% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.8–7.5% 4.5–7.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 1.9–4.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 2.0% 1.6–2.6% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.0% 1.2–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–34 29–35 29–35 28–36
Eesti 200 0 19 18–21 17–21 16–22 16–23
Eesti Keskerakond 26 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–18 14–19 14–20 14–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 10 9–11 8–11 8–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.8%  
29 7% 98%  
30 17% 91%  
31 17% 75%  
32 26% 57% Median
33 12% 31%  
34 11% 19% Last Result
35 7% 8%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.4% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 4% 99.9%  
17 5% 96%  
18 24% 91%  
19 26% 68% Median
20 25% 42%  
21 13% 17%  
22 3% 4%  
23 1.0% 1.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 10% 98%  
17 17% 88%  
18 24% 71% Median
19 34% 47%  
20 10% 13%  
21 3% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 5% 99.7%  
15 12% 94%  
16 28% 82%  
17 25% 54% Median
18 21% 30%  
19 5% 8% Last Result
20 3% 3%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.9% 100%  
8 8% 99.1%  
9 32% 91%  
10 32% 59% Last Result, Median
11 24% 27%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 0% 95%  
3 0% 95%  
4 3% 95%  
5 41% 91%  
6 44% 51% Median
7 6% 7%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 67 100% 65–69 64–70 63–71 63–72
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 97% 51–56 51–57 50–57 49–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 38% 48–53 47–53 46–54 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 19% 46–51 45–52 45–52 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 1.3% 44–49 43–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 1.3% 44–49 43–50 43–50 42–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 41 0% 39–44 39–44 38–45 37–46
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 38–43 37–43 37–44 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 34–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 35 0% 33–37 32–38 32–38 31–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 31–35 30–36 29–37 27–37
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–31 24–32
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 27 0% 24–28 24–29 24–30 23–32

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 3% 99.5%  
64 4% 97%  
65 20% 92%  
66 19% 73%  
67 25% 53% Median
68 11% 28%  
69 8% 17%  
70 5% 8%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 3% 99.5%  
51 9% 97% Majority
52 10% 88%  
53 23% 78%  
54 17% 55%  
55 19% 38% Median
56 12% 18%  
57 5% 6%  
58 1.1% 1.4%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.8% 99.9%  
46 3% 99.1%  
47 5% 96%  
48 10% 92%  
49 23% 82%  
50 20% 58% Median
51 18% 38% Majority
52 9% 21%  
53 8% 11%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.7% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 5% 99.3%  
46 8% 94%  
47 16% 87%  
48 25% 71%  
49 20% 46% Median
50 7% 26%  
51 13% 19% Majority
52 5% 7%  
53 1.1% 2% Last Result
54 0.8% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 6% 94%  
45 6% 89%  
46 26% 83%  
47 19% 57%  
48 17% 38% Median
49 15% 21%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.0% 1.3% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.6%  
43 4% 98%  
44 6% 94%  
45 6% 89%  
46 26% 83%  
47 19% 57%  
48 17% 38% Median
49 15% 21%  
50 5% 7%  
51 1.0% 1.3% Majority
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 4% 99.4%  
39 6% 95%  
40 18% 89%  
41 23% 71%  
42 13% 48% Median
43 17% 34%  
44 13% 17% Last Result
45 3% 4%  
46 1.2% 1.5%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.6% 99.7%  
36 1.3% 99.1%  
37 4% 98%  
38 12% 94%  
39 20% 81%  
40 16% 61%  
41 19% 46% Median
42 15% 26%  
43 9% 12%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.7%  
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6%  
33 2% 98%  
34 6% 96%  
35 7% 90%  
36 22% 83%  
37 14% 60%  
38 23% 46% Median
39 11% 23%  
40 11% 12%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.5%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.3% 100%  
31 1.0% 99.7%  
32 6% 98.6%  
33 16% 93%  
34 20% 77%  
35 20% 56% Median
36 14% 37%  
37 16% 23%  
38 5% 7%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 1.0% 99.4%  
29 2% 98%  
30 6% 96%  
31 7% 91%  
32 13% 83%  
33 19% 70%  
34 26% 51% Median
35 16% 25%  
36 5% 9%  
37 4% 4%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 2% 99.9%  
25 7% 98%  
26 8% 91%  
27 20% 83%  
28 22% 63% Median
29 23% 41%  
30 13% 18%  
31 4% 5%  
32 0.9% 1.0%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 2% 99.9%  
24 14% 98%  
25 15% 84%  
26 13% 70%  
27 29% 56% Median
28 18% 27%  
29 5% 9% Last Result
30 3% 4%  
31 0.5% 1.3%  
32 0.7% 0.8%  
33 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations