Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 17–23 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.9–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.0% 19.4–22.7% 19.0–23.2% 18.6–23.6% 17.8–24.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.4% 8.3–10.7% 8.0–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.2–12.0%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–27
Eesti 200 0 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 13 12–15 11–16 11–16 10–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–11 8–11 7–12 7–12
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.4% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 6% 97%  
32 11% 91%  
33 23% 79%  
34 20% 57% Last Result, Median
35 19% 36%  
36 11% 17%  
37 4% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.9%  
20 4% 98.8%  
21 13% 95%  
22 18% 82%  
23 27% 64% Median
24 18% 37%  
25 13% 19%  
26 4% 6% Last Result
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.9% 99.9%  
13 5% 99.0%  
14 18% 94%  
15 28% 76% Median
16 26% 48%  
17 16% 22%  
18 5% 6%  
19 1.0% 1.3%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.6% 100%  
11 6% 99.4%  
12 20% 94%  
13 24% 74% Median
14 28% 49%  
15 15% 21%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.8% 0.9%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 5% 99.8%  
8 21% 95%  
9 32% 74% Median
10 31% 42% Last Result
11 8% 10%  
12 3% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 2% 98%  
5 25% 97%  
6 42% 71% Median
7 26% 29%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 70 100% 68–73 67–73 67–74 66–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 57 100% 55–59 54–60 53–61 52–62
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 92% 51–56 50–57 49–57 48–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 49 24% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 49 24% 47–52 46–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 5% 45–50 44–50 44–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 40–45 39–46 39–46 37–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–42 37–43 36–44 35–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 38 0% 36–40 35–41 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 36 0% 34–39 33–40 33–40 32–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–25 20–26 19–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 1.3% 99.7%  
67 4% 98%  
68 10% 95%  
69 18% 85%  
70 21% 67% Median
71 22% 46%  
72 13% 24%  
73 7% 11%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.5% 0.9%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 0.9% 99.8%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 6% 97%  
55 13% 91%  
56 20% 78%  
57 21% 58% Median
58 19% 37%  
59 8% 17%  
60 6% 9% Last Result
61 2% 3%  
62 0.9% 1.3%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.3%  
50 6% 97%  
51 9% 92% Majority
52 16% 83%  
53 24% 67% Median
54 19% 43%  
55 11% 24%  
56 8% 13%  
57 4% 5%  
58 1.0% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 3% 99.1%  
46 6% 96%  
47 10% 90%  
48 19% 81%  
49 23% 61% Median
50 15% 39%  
51 13% 24% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.6% 99.7%  
45 3% 99.1%  
46 6% 96%  
47 10% 90%  
48 19% 81%  
49 23% 61% Median
50 15% 39%  
51 13% 24% Majority
52 7% 10%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.7% 0.9%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.7% 99.9%  
43 1.3% 99.3%  
44 4% 98%  
45 11% 94%  
46 15% 82%  
47 24% 68% Median
48 18% 44%  
49 12% 26%  
50 9% 14%  
51 3% 5% Majority
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 6% 97%  
41 9% 91%  
42 20% 82%  
43 23% 62% Median
44 17% 40% Last Result
45 12% 23%  
46 8% 11%  
47 2% 3%  
48 1.1% 1.3%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 6% 98%  
40 7% 92%  
41 16% 85%  
42 23% 69% Median
43 18% 47%  
44 16% 29%  
45 7% 13%  
46 5% 6%  
47 1.3% 2%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 3% 98.7%  
37 7% 96%  
38 12% 89%  
39 22% 77%  
40 21% 56% Median
41 16% 35%  
42 12% 19%  
43 5% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.5% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.2%  
35 5% 97%  
36 11% 92%  
37 20% 82%  
38 15% 62% Median
39 20% 47%  
40 17% 27%  
41 5% 10%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.6% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.3% 100%  
32 1.3% 99.6%  
33 3% 98%  
34 8% 95%  
35 19% 86%  
36 20% 67% Median
37 17% 48%  
38 17% 31%  
39 9% 14%  
40 4% 5%  
41 1.0% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.3% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.6%  
29 6% 98.6%  
30 9% 93%  
31 16% 83%  
32 21% 68% Median
33 24% 46%  
34 12% 22%  
35 6% 10%  
36 3% 4% Last Result
37 0.8% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 1.5% 99.7%  
20 6% 98%  
21 15% 92%  
22 23% 77% Median
23 26% 55%  
24 16% 28%  
25 8% 12%  
26 2% 4%  
27 1.3% 1.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations