Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 24–30 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.8% 27.0–30.7% 26.5–31.2% 26.1–31.7% 25.2–32.6%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.8% 21.2–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.5% 19.5–26.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.3% 13.9–16.8% 13.5–17.3% 13.2–17.7% 12.6–18.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–36 31–37 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 26 24–28 23–29 23–30 22–31
Eesti 200 0 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–18 13–18 13–19 12–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 0–9
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 1.4% 99.8%  
30 3% 98%  
31 6% 95%  
32 10% 89%  
33 16% 79%  
34 20% 63% Last Result, Median
35 25% 43%  
36 11% 18%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.9% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.3% 100%  
22 1.3% 99.7%  
23 6% 98%  
24 11% 92%  
25 18% 81%  
26 24% 62% Last Result, Median
27 21% 38%  
28 9% 17%  
29 5% 8%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 5% 98.9%  
15 12% 94%  
16 27% 82%  
17 25% 55% Median
18 19% 31%  
19 8% 11%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 4% 99.4%  
14 14% 95%  
15 20% 81%  
16 25% 61% Median
17 23% 36%  
18 10% 13%  
19 2% 3% Last Result
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 0% 98.8%  
2 0% 98.8%  
3 0% 98.8%  
4 1.2% 98.8%  
5 11% 98%  
6 51% 87% Median
7 31% 36%  
8 4% 5%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0% 42%  
3 0% 42%  
4 9% 42%  
5 27% 32%  
6 5% 6%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0.9% 2%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 76 100% 73–79 72–80 71–80 70–82
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 60 100% 57–63 56–64 55–64 54–66
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 52 80% 49–55 48–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 47% 47–52 46–53 45–54 44–56
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0.3% 41–47 40–48 40–48 38–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 36–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 42 0% 39–45 38–46 38–46 36–48
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 38–42 36–43 36–44 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 34 0% 32–38 31–38 30–39 28–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 22 0% 20–24 19–25 19–25 17–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.6%  
71 3% 98.9%  
72 6% 96%  
73 11% 90%  
74 13% 80%  
75 13% 67%  
76 8% 54% Median
77 16% 46%  
78 14% 30%  
79 9% 16% Last Result
80 5% 7%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.8% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 6% 97%  
57 9% 91%  
58 9% 82%  
59 12% 73%  
60 19% 61% Last Result, Median
61 17% 43%  
62 11% 25%  
63 7% 14%  
64 5% 7%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0.3% 0.3%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 6% 94%  
50 9% 88% Median
51 24% 80% Majority
52 20% 56%  
53 16% 36%  
54 10% 20%  
55 3% 10%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.6% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 1.2% 99.8%  
45 2% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 8% 94%  
48 15% 86%  
49 13% 71%  
50 11% 58% Median
51 24% 47% Majority
52 16% 23%  
53 4% 7% Last Result
54 2% 4%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.7% 99.9%  
39 1.4% 99.2%  
40 6% 98%  
41 4% 91%  
42 15% 87% Median
43 14% 72%  
44 19% 58%  
45 14% 39%  
46 10% 25%  
47 9% 15%  
48 4% 7%  
49 1.5% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.3% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 6% 96%  
40 12% 90% Median
41 20% 78%  
42 14% 58%  
43 14% 44%  
44 11% 30%  
45 9% 19%  
46 6% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 1.2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 1.3% 99.3%  
38 2% 98%  
39 6% 96%  
40 12% 90% Median
41 20% 78%  
42 14% 58%  
43 14% 44%  
44 11% 30%  
45 9% 19%  
46 6% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.7% 1.2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.5%  
38 3% 98%  
39 7% 94%  
40 17% 87%  
41 11% 71%  
42 22% 60% Median
43 15% 38%  
44 11% 23%  
45 7% 12% Last Result
46 3% 5%  
47 1.1% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 3% 98%  
37 4% 95%  
38 10% 91%  
39 13% 82%  
40 21% 68% Median
41 23% 47%  
42 14% 24%  
43 6% 10%  
44 2% 4% Last Result
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.6% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 1.3% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 7% 95%  
34 14% 88% Median
35 23% 75%  
36 13% 52%  
37 13% 39%  
38 10% 26%  
39 7% 17%  
40 5% 10%  
41 3% 4%  
42 1.1% 1.4%  
43 0.3% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.5% 99.4%  
30 3% 98.9%  
31 6% 96%  
32 18% 90% Median
33 17% 73%  
34 13% 56%  
35 10% 43%  
36 12% 33%  
37 10% 21%  
38 6% 11%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.2% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.8%  
27 0.8% 99.6%  
28 2% 98.8%  
29 4% 97%  
30 8% 93%  
31 16% 85%  
32 26% 68% Median
33 21% 43%  
34 12% 22%  
35 5% 10%  
36 4% 5% Last Result
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.3% 99.8%  
17 0.4% 99.5%  
18 1.2% 99.1%  
19 4% 98%  
20 11% 94%  
21 18% 83%  
22 21% 65% Median
23 24% 44%  
24 13% 20%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations