Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 1–7 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 32.3% 30.4–34.2% 29.9–34.8% 29.4–35.2% 28.6–36.2%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.2% 20.6–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.9% 19.0–25.7%
Eesti 200 4.4% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.0% 13.8–18.4% 13.2–19.2%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 13.7% 12.4–15.2% 12.0–15.6% 11.7–16.0% 11.1–16.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 1.0–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 36 33–38 33–39 32–39 31–41
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 22–25 21–26 20–27 20–28
Eesti 200 0 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 14 12–15 12–16 11–16 11–17
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 3% 99.3%  
33 7% 97%  
34 10% 89% Last Result
35 22% 79%  
36 29% 57% Median
37 14% 29%  
38 7% 14%  
39 5% 7%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 3% 99.5%  
21 7% 97%  
22 18% 90%  
23 26% 72% Median
24 22% 46%  
25 15% 24%  
26 6% 9% Last Result
27 2% 3%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.8%  
14 7% 98%  
15 26% 92%  
16 30% 66% Median
17 18% 36%  
18 13% 18%  
19 5% 6%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 3% 99.5%  
12 14% 96%  
13 25% 82%  
14 37% 57% Median
15 15% 20%  
16 5% 6%  
17 0.9% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.7% 100%  
6 8% 99.3%  
7 29% 91%  
8 42% 62% Median
9 17% 19%  
10 2% 3% Last Result
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 0% 86%  
2 0% 86%  
3 0% 86%  
4 21% 86%  
5 49% 66% Median
6 15% 16%  
7 1.4% 1.5%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 73 100% 70–75 70–76 69–77 68–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 59 100% 57–62 56–63 56–63 54–65
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 54 92% 51–56 50–57 49–57 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 21% 47–51 46–53 45–53 45–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 48 7% 45–50 44–51 43–52 42–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0.1% 41–46 40–47 40–47 39–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–44 37–45 37–45 35–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 40 0% 37–42 36–43 35–44 34–45
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 36 0% 33–38 32–39 31–39 30–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 29–33 28–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 21 0% 20–23 19–24 18–24 18–25

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.9% 99.8%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 9% 97%  
71 13% 88%  
72 20% 75%  
73 21% 56% Median
74 20% 34%  
75 7% 15%  
76 3% 8%  
77 3% 5%  
78 1.4% 2%  
79 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 1.4% 99.4%  
56 5% 98%  
57 15% 93%  
58 14% 78%  
59 23% 64% Median
60 21% 42% Last Result
61 6% 21%  
62 9% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.7% 0.9%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 4% 99.3%  
50 4% 96%  
51 7% 92% Majority
52 9% 84%  
53 16% 75%  
54 22% 59%  
55 22% 37% Median
56 9% 15%  
57 4% 6%  
58 1.3% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 6% 97%  
47 7% 92%  
48 13% 85%  
49 19% 72%  
50 32% 53% Median
51 12% 21% Majority
52 4% 10%  
53 3% 5% Last Result
54 1.1% 2%  
55 1.0% 1.2%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.7%  
43 3% 99.3%  
44 3% 97%  
45 6% 93%  
46 10% 88%  
47 23% 77%  
48 13% 54%  
49 24% 41% Median
50 10% 18%  
51 4% 7% Majority
52 3% 3%  
53 0.6% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.8%  
40 4% 98%  
41 8% 94%  
42 13% 86%  
43 25% 73%  
44 20% 48% Last Result, Median
45 12% 27%  
46 9% 15%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.6% 0.9%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 0.8% 99.8%  
36 0.8% 99.0%  
37 3% 98%  
38 4% 95%  
39 6% 91%  
40 19% 85%  
41 15% 66%  
42 24% 51% Median
43 14% 27%  
44 8% 14%  
45 4% 5%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.6%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 3% 97%  
37 7% 94%  
38 7% 87%  
39 15% 81%  
40 22% 65%  
41 20% 44% Median
42 14% 23%  
43 5% 9%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.6% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.2% 100%  
32 0.4% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.4%  
34 4% 97%  
35 13% 93%  
36 17% 80%  
37 25% 63% Median
38 15% 37%  
39 14% 23%  
40 5% 9%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 1.0%  
43 0.3% 0.3%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 3% 96%  
33 10% 94%  
34 9% 84%  
35 25% 75%  
36 23% 50% Median
37 16% 28%  
38 6% 12%  
39 4% 6%  
40 2% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 1.4% 99.8%  
28 4% 98%  
29 8% 94%  
30 20% 86%  
31 28% 66% Median
32 14% 37%  
33 15% 23%  
34 5% 8%  
35 3% 3%  
36 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.4% 100%  
18 3% 99.5%  
19 6% 97%  
20 16% 91%  
21 30% 75%  
22 23% 45% Median
23 15% 21%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations