Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 27 November–7 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Keskerakond | 23.1% | 25.0% | 23.2–26.9% | 22.7–27.5% | 22.2–27.9% | 21.4–28.9% |
| Eesti Reformierakond | 28.9% | 21.0% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.8–23.4% | 18.4–23.8% | 17.6–24.7% |
| Eesti 200 | 4.4% | 20.0% | 18.3–21.8% | 17.9–22.3% | 17.5–22.8% | 16.7–23.6% |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 17.8% | 14.0% | 12.6–15.6% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.8–16.4% | 11.2–17.2% |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.8–10.3% | 7.5–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.7–11.7% |
| Erakond Isamaa | 11.4% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.6% | 3.4–7.2% |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Keskerakond | 26 | 29 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Eesti Reformierakond | 34 | 24 | 21–26 | 21–27 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| Eesti 200 | 0 | 22 | 20–25 | 19–26 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 19 | 15 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 10 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Erakond Isamaa | 12 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eesti Vabaerakond | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98% | |
| 26 | 11% | 95% | Last Result |
| 27 | 16% | 84% | |
| 28 | 13% | 69% | |
| 29 | 18% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 20% | 37% | |
| 31 | 11% | 17% | |
| 32 | 3% | 6% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 21 | 7% | 96% | |
| 22 | 14% | 90% | |
| 23 | 23% | 76% | |
| 24 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 33% | |
| 26 | 12% | 18% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 20 | 11% | 95% | |
| 21 | 17% | 84% | |
| 22 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 23 | 19% | 44% | |
| 24 | 14% | 25% | |
| 25 | 5% | 11% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 12 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 17% | 95% | |
| 14 | 21% | 78% | |
| 15 | 29% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 28% | |
| 17 | 8% | 12% | |
| 18 | 4% | 5% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 98.9% | |
| 8 | 26% | 88% | |
| 9 | 35% | 62% | Median |
| 10 | 18% | 26% | Last Result |
| 11 | 7% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 54% | |
| 2 | 0% | 54% | |
| 3 | 0% | 54% | |
| 4 | 12% | 54% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 42% | |
| 6 | 9% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Vabaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 79 | 67 | 100% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond | 60 | 52 | 81% | 49–56 | 48–57 | 48–57 | 46–58 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 57 | 46 | 3% | 43–49 | 42–50 | 41–51 | 40–52 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 45 | 43 | 0.1% | 41–47 | 40–48 | 39–48 | 38–50 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa | 65 | 41 | 0% | 38–45 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 35–47 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 48 | 40 | 0% | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 34–46 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond | 53 | 38 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
| Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 36 | 38 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–44 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond | 56 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–41 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa | 56 | 35 | 0% | 32–39 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 29–41 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 44 | 33 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 27–38 |
| Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa | 46 | 27 | 0% | 23–30 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond | 29 | 23 | 0% | 21–26 | 21–27 | 21–28 | 19–29 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 8% | 93% | |
| 65 | 10% | 85% | |
| 66 | 17% | 75% | |
| 67 | 17% | 58% | |
| 68 | 11% | 41% | Median |
| 69 | 12% | 30% | |
| 70 | 9% | 18% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Reformierakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 4% | 98% | |
| 49 | 5% | 94% | |
| 50 | 8% | 89% | |
| 51 | 20% | 81% | Majority |
| 52 | 14% | 62% | |
| 53 | 17% | 47% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 31% | |
| 55 | 7% | 18% | |
| 56 | 6% | 12% | |
| 57 | 4% | 5% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 8% | 92% | |
| 44 | 9% | 84% | |
| 45 | 16% | 75% | |
| 46 | 14% | 59% | |
| 47 | 17% | 45% | |
| 48 | 10% | 28% | Median |
| 49 | 8% | 18% | |
| 50 | 6% | 10% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 52 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 6% | 97% | |
| 41 | 14% | 91% | |
| 42 | 15% | 77% | |
| 43 | 17% | 62% | |
| 44 | 14% | 46% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 32% | Last Result |
| 46 | 9% | 19% | |
| 47 | 5% | 10% | |
| 48 | 3% | 5% | |
| 49 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 37 | 6% | 97% | |
| 38 | 6% | 91% | |
| 39 | 11% | 85% | |
| 40 | 14% | 74% | |
| 41 | 15% | 60% | |
| 42 | 13% | 45% | |
| 43 | 13% | 31% | Median |
| 44 | 8% | 19% | |
| 45 | 7% | 11% | |
| 46 | 3% | 4% | |
| 47 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 5% | 97% | |
| 37 | 6% | 92% | |
| 38 | 10% | 86% | |
| 39 | 14% | 75% | |
| 40 | 16% | 61% | |
| 41 | 12% | 44% | |
| 42 | 12% | 32% | Median |
| 43 | 11% | 20% | |
| 44 | 6% | 9% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 35 | 5% | 97% | |
| 36 | 12% | 92% | |
| 37 | 13% | 81% | |
| 38 | 19% | 67% | |
| 39 | 16% | 48% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 32% | |
| 41 | 10% | 19% | |
| 42 | 6% | 9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 33 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 34 | 6% | 97% | |
| 35 | 10% | 91% | |
| 36 | 16% | 81% | Last Result |
| 37 | 14% | 65% | |
| 38 | 16% | 51% | Median |
| 39 | 18% | 35% | |
| 40 | 9% | 17% | |
| 41 | 4% | 8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 7% | 93% | |
| 33 | 13% | 86% | |
| 34 | 13% | 73% | |
| 35 | 11% | 60% | |
| 36 | 17% | 49% | |
| 37 | 12% | 32% | Median |
| 38 | 8% | 20% | |
| 39 | 7% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 31 | 5% | 97% | |
| 32 | 7% | 93% | |
| 33 | 13% | 86% | |
| 34 | 13% | 73% | |
| 35 | 11% | 60% | |
| 36 | 17% | 49% | |
| 37 | 12% | 32% | Median |
| 38 | 8% | 20% | |
| 39 | 7% | 12% | |
| 40 | 3% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 4% | 98% | |
| 30 | 9% | 94% | |
| 31 | 15% | 85% | |
| 32 | 18% | 70% | |
| 33 | 19% | 52% | Median |
| 34 | 18% | 33% | |
| 35 | 8% | 15% | |
| 36 | 4% | 8% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 22 | 3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 9% | 93% | |
| 24 | 12% | 84% | |
| 25 | 8% | 72% | |
| 26 | 13% | 64% | |
| 27 | 16% | 52% | |
| 28 | 12% | 36% | Median |
| 29 | 9% | 24% | |
| 30 | 10% | 15% | |
| 31 | 4% | 5% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 21 | 8% | 98% | |
| 22 | 21% | 89% | |
| 23 | 19% | 68% | |
| 24 | 20% | 49% | Median |
| 25 | 12% | 29% | |
| 26 | 10% | 17% | |
| 27 | 4% | 7% | |
| 28 | 3% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 November–7 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 881
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.00%