Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and Postimees, 3–9 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.4–28.6% 25.0–29.1% 24.6–29.5% 23.9–30.3%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.0% 16.7–19.5% 16.3–19.9% 16.0–20.2% 15.4–20.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 16.0% 14.7–17.4% 14.4–17.8% 14.1–18.1% 13.5–18.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.1% 7.7–10.4% 7.5–10.7% 7.1–11.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.2–8.0% 5.9–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–9.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 5.0% 4.3–5.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.9–6.3% 3.6–6.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 28–32 28–33 27–34 26–35
Eesti 200 0 19 17–20 17–21 16–22 16–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 16–19 16–20 15–20 15–21
Eesti Keskerakond 26 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 14–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–7 5–8 5–8 5–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 5 0–5 0–5 0–5 0–6
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.4%  
28 17% 96%  
29 32% 79% Median
30 16% 47%  
31 16% 31%  
32 6% 15%  
33 6% 10%  
34 2% 3% Last Result
35 0.9% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 9% 96%  
18 23% 87%  
19 36% 64% Median
20 19% 28%  
21 7% 9%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.3% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 3% 99.9%  
16 22% 97%  
17 34% 75% Median
18 26% 41%  
19 10% 15% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 1.0% 1.1%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.5% 99.9%  
15 10% 98%  
16 26% 88%  
17 41% 63% Median
18 15% 22%  
19 5% 7%  
20 1.2% 1.5%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 5% 99.9%  
8 39% 95%  
9 50% 55% Median
10 5% 5% Last Result
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.2% 100%  
5 12% 99.8%  
6 54% 88% Median
7 29% 35%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 30% 100% Last Result
1 0% 70%  
2 0% 70%  
3 0% 70%  
4 19% 70%  
5 49% 51% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 79 64 100% 62–67 61–68 60–69 60–69
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 97% 51–56 51–58 50–58 49–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 6% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 46 3% 45–50 44–50 43–51 43–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 44 0.4% 42–47 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 44 0.4% 42–47 42–48 42–49 40–50
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 40 0% 39–43 38–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–43 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 36 0% 34–39 34–40 33–40 33–42
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond 45 34 0% 32–36 32–37 31–38 30–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 32 0% 29–33 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 26 0% 25–27 24–28 24–28 23–29
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 25 0% 23–27 23–28 23–28 21–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 3% 99.6%  
61 5% 96%  
62 24% 91%  
63 15% 68% Median
64 18% 53%  
65 7% 35%  
66 14% 28%  
67 7% 14%  
68 4% 7%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.7% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 16% 97% Majority
52 18% 81% Median
53 20% 63%  
54 17% 43%  
55 9% 26%  
56 8% 17%  
57 4% 10%  
58 4% 6%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.6% 0.7%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 1.2% 99.9%  
44 3% 98.7%  
45 18% 96%  
46 21% 78% Median
47 19% 57%  
48 15% 38%  
49 9% 24%  
50 9% 15%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.6%  
44 5% 96%  
45 22% 91%  
46 27% 69% Median
47 14% 42%  
48 8% 28%  
49 9% 20%  
50 8% 11%  
51 3% 3% Majority
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 11% 98%  
43 12% 86%  
44 27% 75% Median
45 18% 48%  
46 13% 30%  
47 8% 17%  
48 5% 9%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 11% 98%  
43 12% 86%  
44 27% 75% Median
45 18% 48%  
46 13% 30%  
47 8% 17%  
48 5% 9%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.8% 1.2%  
51 0.3% 0.4% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.5% 100%  
37 3% 99.5%  
38 6% 97%  
39 24% 91%  
40 19% 67% Median
41 27% 47%  
42 10% 21%  
43 6% 11%  
44 3% 5%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.7% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.2%  
36 13% 97%  
37 9% 84%  
38 39% 76% Median
39 13% 37%  
40 10% 24%  
41 10% 14%  
42 2% 4%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 3% 99.7%  
34 11% 97%  
35 32% 86% Median
36 19% 54%  
37 16% 35%  
38 5% 19%  
39 8% 13%  
40 4% 6%  
41 1.3% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.8% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.2%  
32 11% 97%  
33 28% 86%  
34 17% 58% Median
35 22% 41%  
36 11% 19%  
37 4% 8%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.5% 100%  
28 3% 99.5%  
29 9% 97%  
30 5% 87%  
31 20% 82%  
32 40% 62% Median
33 14% 22%  
34 4% 7%  
35 1.3% 3%  
36 2% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.9% 100%  
24 7% 99.1%  
25 32% 92%  
26 33% 60% Median
27 18% 27%  
28 7% 9%  
29 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.6% 100%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 9% 98%  
24 11% 89%  
25 31% 78%  
26 31% 47% Median
27 10% 16%  
28 3% 5%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations