Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 9–14 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 23.0–30.1%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.5% 19.9–23.2% 19.4–23.7% 19.1–24.2% 18.3–25.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 18.1% 16.6–19.7% 16.2–20.2% 15.8–20.6% 15.2–21.4%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.5–11.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 30 28–32 27–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti 200 0 19 18–21 17–22 17–23 16–24
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 13–16 13–17 12–18 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 6–10 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 4–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 6% 97%  
28 16% 91%  
29 17% 75%  
30 23% 57% Median
31 16% 34%  
32 11% 18%  
33 5% 7%  
34 2% 2% Last Result
35 0.5% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 7% 98%  
22 15% 90%  
23 22% 75%  
24 23% 54% Median
25 17% 31%  
26 8% 13% Last Result
27 4% 5%  
28 1.0% 1.3%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 7% 98%  
18 17% 91%  
19 26% 74% Median
20 24% 49%  
21 16% 25%  
22 6% 9%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.4% 0.5%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100%  
12 3% 99.6%  
13 14% 96%  
14 25% 82%  
15 27% 57% Median
16 21% 31%  
17 7% 10%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 3% 99.9%  
7 19% 97%  
8 37% 77% Median
9 29% 41%  
10 10% 12% Last Result
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 0% 90%  
2 0% 90%  
3 0% 90%  
4 6% 90%  
5 44% 84% Median
6 31% 39%  
7 7% 8%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0.1% 0.2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 68 100% 66–71 65–72 64–73 63–74
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 53 93% 51–56 50–57 50–58 48–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 50 33% 47–52 46–53 45–53 43–55
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 45 0.3% 42–47 41–48 41–49 40–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 44 0% 41–46 40–47 39–47 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 43 0% 40–46 39–46 38–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 38 0% 36–41 35–42 35–42 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 38 0% 36–41 35–42 34–42 33–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 34–40 33–40 32–41 31–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–37 31–38 30–39 28–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–34 29–35 28–36 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 2% 99.4%  
65 5% 97%  
66 11% 92%  
67 19% 82%  
68 19% 62%  
69 18% 43% Median
70 12% 25%  
71 6% 13%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 99.4%  
50 5% 98%  
51 10% 93% Majority
52 14% 83%  
53 22% 69%  
54 17% 47% Median
55 14% 30%  
56 8% 16%  
57 4% 8%  
58 2% 4%  
59 0.8% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 0.9% 99.5%  
45 2% 98.5%  
46 5% 97%  
47 9% 92%  
48 14% 83%  
49 17% 69%  
50 18% 52% Median
51 15% 33% Majority
52 11% 19%  
53 5% 7%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 4% 98%  
42 9% 94%  
43 17% 85%  
44 16% 68%  
45 18% 52% Median
46 17% 34%  
47 10% 17%  
48 4% 8%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.9% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.3% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.5%  
39 3% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 9% 91%  
42 15% 82%  
43 17% 68%  
44 21% 50% Median
45 14% 29%  
46 9% 15%  
47 5% 6%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.7%  
38 2% 99.2%  
39 4% 97%  
40 6% 94%  
41 8% 88%  
42 16% 80%  
43 22% 64% Median
44 19% 41%  
45 10% 23%  
46 8% 12%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 1.4%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 1.5% 99.6%  
35 4% 98%  
36 9% 94%  
37 16% 85%  
38 22% 69%  
39 19% 47% Median
40 14% 29%  
41 8% 14%  
42 4% 7%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.5% 0.7%  
45 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.6% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.4%  
35 5% 97%  
36 10% 92%  
37 19% 82%  
38 24% 63% Median
39 17% 38%  
40 9% 21%  
41 7% 13%  
42 3% 5%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.8%  
33 3% 97%  
34 6% 94%  
35 13% 87%  
36 15% 75%  
37 20% 60% Median
38 16% 39%  
39 12% 23%  
40 7% 11%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.8% 1.0%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.6% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.3%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 6% 92%  
33 14% 87%  
34 15% 73%  
35 21% 58% Median
36 15% 37%  
37 14% 22%  
38 5% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 2% 99.5%  
29 7% 97%  
30 14% 91%  
31 17% 76%  
32 20% 59% Median
33 18% 39%  
34 12% 21%  
35 6% 9%  
36 2% 3% Last Result
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.9%  
20 4% 99.0%  
21 12% 95%  
22 20% 83%  
23 23% 63% Median
24 21% 40%  
25 12% 19%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations