Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 16–21 December 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.8–30.5% 25.4–31.0% 24.6–31.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.6%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.9% 14.5–17.5% 14.1–17.9% 13.8–18.3% 13.1–19.1%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.3–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–34 29–34 28–35 27–36
Eesti Keskerakond 26 22 20–25 20–25 20–26 19–27
Eesti 200 0 18 16–20 16–21 15–21 15–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 15–18 14–19 14–19 13–20
Erakond Isamaa 12 7 6–8 5–8 5–9 5–9
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 6 5–7 4–7 4–7 0–8
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.8% 99.8%  
28 4% 99.0%  
29 8% 95%  
30 20% 87%  
31 18% 68% Median
32 23% 49%  
33 13% 26%  
34 8% 13% Last Result
35 3% 4%  
36 1.0% 1.3%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 8% 98%  
21 16% 90%  
22 25% 73% Median
23 22% 48%  
24 16% 26%  
25 7% 10%  
26 2% 3% Last Result
27 0.5% 0.7%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 9% 97%  
17 21% 88%  
18 27% 66% Median
19 22% 39%  
20 12% 18%  
21 4% 6%  
22 1.2% 1.5%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.1% 99.9%  
14 6% 98.8%  
15 17% 93%  
16 28% 76% Median
17 25% 48%  
18 15% 23%  
19 6% 8% Last Result
20 1.5% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.9%  
5 6% 99.8%  
6 31% 93%  
7 40% 62% Median
8 18% 22%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 0% 98%  
2 0% 98%  
3 0% 98%  
4 4% 98%  
5 34% 94%  
6 42% 59% Median
7 15% 18%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 70 100% 68–73 68–73 67–74 66–76
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 98.7% 52–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 54 97% 51–56 51–57 50–58 49–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 48 9% 45–50 45–51 44–52 43–53
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 46 0.9% 43–48 43–49 42–50 41–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 44 0% 41–46 41–47 40–48 38–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–41 35–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 35 0% 33–37 32–38 31–38 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 24–32 22–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 22 0% 20–24 19–25 19–25 16–26

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 1.5% 99.7%  
67 3% 98%  
68 10% 95%  
69 16% 85% Median
70 21% 69%  
71 21% 48%  
72 16% 27%  
73 6% 11%  
74 3% 5%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.0% 99.7%  
51 3% 98.7% Majority
52 8% 95%  
53 14% 88%  
54 19% 74% Median
55 20% 55%  
56 18% 35%  
57 10% 17%  
58 4% 7%  
59 2% 3%  
60 0.6% 1.0%  
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.2% 100%  
49 1.1% 99.8%  
50 2% 98.7%  
51 7% 97% Majority
52 13% 90%  
53 19% 77% Median
54 20% 58%  
55 17% 38%  
56 12% 20%  
57 5% 9%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 1.1%  
60 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 3% 99.1%  
45 7% 96%  
46 13% 89%  
47 19% 77% Median
48 19% 58%  
49 19% 39%  
50 12% 20%  
51 5% 9% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 1.1% 99.8%  
42 3% 98.7%  
43 6% 96%  
44 14% 90%  
45 21% 75% Median
46 21% 54%  
47 14% 33%  
48 11% 19%  
49 6% 8%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 0.9% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 1.1% 99.5%  
40 3% 98%  
41 7% 96%  
42 11% 88%  
43 19% 77%  
44 20% 58% Median
45 18% 38%  
46 12% 20%  
47 5% 8%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.6% 0.8%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.6% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.3%  
36 6% 97%  
37 12% 91%  
38 20% 79% Median
39 23% 59%  
40 17% 37%  
41 10% 20%  
42 6% 10%  
43 3% 3%  
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 2% 99.5%  
35 5% 98%  
36 11% 93%  
37 16% 82%  
38 23% 66% Median
39 19% 43%  
40 13% 25%  
41 7% 11%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.9% 1.3%  
44 0.3% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.8%  
32 1.0% 99.6%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 6% 97%  
35 12% 91%  
36 17% 80%  
37 21% 63% Median
38 19% 42%  
39 14% 23%  
40 6% 9%  
41 3% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0.2% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.5%  
31 2% 98.6%  
32 6% 96%  
33 10% 90%  
34 21% 80%  
35 21% 59% Median
36 17% 38%  
37 12% 21%  
38 6% 9%  
39 2% 2%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.5%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 4% 97%  
26 10% 94%  
27 18% 83%  
28 25% 65% Median
29 19% 41%  
30 13% 22%  
31 7% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.7%  
17 0.7% 99.4%  
18 1.1% 98.7%  
19 3% 98%  
20 9% 95%  
21 20% 85%  
22 23% 65% Median
23 22% 42%  
24 13% 20%  
25 5% 7%  
26 1.5% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.4%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations