Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 29 December 2020–4 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.6% 27.8–31.5% 27.3–32.0% 26.9–32.5% 26.0–33.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.0–24.4% 19.6–24.8% 18.9–25.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 13.0–16.7% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.5–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–36 30–37 30–37 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–27 21–28 20–29
Eesti 200 0 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 12–20
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 14–17 13–18 13–18 12–19
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 1.1% 99.8%  
30 4% 98.6%  
31 9% 95%  
32 16% 86%  
33 20% 71%  
34 19% 50% Last Result, Median
35 17% 31%  
36 8% 14%  
37 4% 6%  
38 1.5% 2%  
39 0.5% 0.7%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.9%  
21 4% 98.8%  
22 11% 94%  
23 21% 84%  
24 24% 62% Median
25 18% 39%  
26 13% 21% Last Result
27 5% 8%  
28 2% 3%  
29 0.4% 0.5%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.5% 100%  
13 4% 99.4%  
14 13% 96%  
15 25% 83%  
16 28% 58% Median
17 19% 30%  
18 8% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.4% 0.5%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 1.4% 99.9%  
13 8% 98%  
14 19% 90%  
15 32% 72% Median
16 22% 39%  
17 12% 17%  
18 4% 5%  
19 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 15% 98%  
8 39% 83% Median
9 30% 43%  
10 11% 14% Last Result
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 22% 100%  
1 0% 78%  
2 0% 78%  
3 0% 78%  
4 14% 78%  
5 47% 64% Median
6 15% 16%  
7 1.3% 1.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 73 100% 70–76 70–77 69–78 68–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 58 100% 55–61 54–61 54–62 53–64
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 84% 50–55 49–56 48–57 47–58
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 19% 46–52 45–52 45–53 44–54
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 1.1% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 40–46 39–47 39–47 37–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 42 0% 39–45 39–45 38–46 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 37–42 36–43 36–43 35–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 33–39 32–40 32–41 30–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 30–35 30–36 29–36 28–38
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 1.0% 99.7%  
69 3% 98.6%  
70 9% 95%  
71 13% 86%  
72 20% 73%  
73 20% 53% Median
74 11% 33%  
75 8% 22%  
76 5% 14%  
77 5% 8%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100% Majority
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.5%  
54 4% 98%  
55 9% 94%  
56 16% 85%  
57 18% 68%  
58 19% 50% Median
59 11% 31%  
60 9% 20% Last Result
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 4%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 1.0% 99.7%  
48 2% 98.7%  
49 5% 96%  
50 8% 92%  
51 11% 84% Majority
52 17% 72%  
53 19% 56%  
54 16% 37% Median
55 12% 21%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.8% 1.0%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 4% 98%  
46 8% 94%  
47 13% 86%  
48 18% 73%  
49 19% 54% Median
50 16% 35%  
51 8% 19% Majority
52 7% 11%  
53 3% 4% Last Result
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.7%  
41 2% 98.8%  
42 4% 97%  
43 8% 93%  
44 11% 85%  
45 16% 74%  
46 16% 58%  
47 19% 42% Median
48 13% 23%  
49 7% 10%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.8% 1.1% Majority
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 6% 94%  
41 10% 89%  
42 13% 79%  
43 20% 66%  
44 16% 45% Median
45 14% 29%  
46 9% 16%  
47 5% 7%  
48 2% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.5%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.8%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 8% 96%  
40 12% 88%  
41 18% 76%  
42 20% 58% Median
43 17% 38%  
44 11% 22% Last Result
45 6% 10%  
46 3% 4%  
47 1.2% 2%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 5% 98%  
37 11% 93%  
38 18% 82%  
39 19% 64% Median
40 18% 45%  
41 12% 27%  
42 8% 15%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.3%  
33 3% 97%  
34 6% 94%  
35 9% 89%  
36 12% 80%  
37 15% 68%  
38 18% 53%  
39 16% 35% Median
40 12% 19%  
41 4% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.5% 0.6%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.8%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 4% 98%  
33 5% 94%  
34 9% 90%  
35 12% 81%  
36 19% 69%  
37 18% 50% Median
38 15% 32%  
39 10% 17%  
40 4% 7%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.5% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.0% 99.8%  
29 3% 98.7%  
30 9% 95%  
31 17% 86%  
32 22% 69% Median
33 19% 47%  
34 14% 29%  
35 9% 15%  
36 4% 6% Last Result
37 1.5% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 6% 98%  
22 16% 92%  
23 25% 76% Median
24 23% 51%  
25 15% 28%  
26 8% 13%  
27 3% 5%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations