Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–11 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond |
28.9% |
29.5% |
27.7–31.4% |
27.2–31.9% |
26.7–32.4% |
25.9–33.3% |
Eesti Keskerakond |
23.1% |
20.9% |
19.3–22.6% |
18.9–23.1% |
18.5–23.5% |
17.8–24.4% |
Eesti 200 |
4.4% |
15.2% |
13.8–16.8% |
13.4–17.2% |
13.1–17.6% |
12.5–18.3% |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
17.8% |
15.1% |
13.7–16.6% |
13.3–17.1% |
13.0–17.5% |
12.4–18.2% |
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
9.8% |
8.7% |
7.7–10.0% |
7.3–10.3% |
7.1–10.6% |
6.6–11.2% |
Erakond Isamaa |
11.4% |
5.2% |
4.4–6.2% |
4.2–6.5% |
4.0–6.8% |
3.6–7.3% |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised |
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.4–2.6% |
1.3–2.8% |
1.2–3.0% |
1.0–3.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
28 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
29 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
30 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
31 |
7% |
97% |
|
32 |
10% |
90% |
|
33 |
18% |
80% |
|
34 |
21% |
62% |
Last Result, Median |
35 |
17% |
41% |
|
36 |
13% |
24% |
|
37 |
6% |
11% |
|
38 |
4% |
5% |
|
39 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
40 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Keskerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
18 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
19 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
20 |
4% |
98.8% |
|
21 |
11% |
95% |
|
22 |
20% |
83% |
|
23 |
23% |
63% |
Median |
24 |
19% |
40% |
|
25 |
13% |
22% |
|
26 |
6% |
8% |
Last Result |
27 |
2% |
2% |
|
28 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
29 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti 200
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.7% |
|
14 |
11% |
97% |
|
15 |
20% |
85% |
|
16 |
26% |
66% |
Median |
17 |
22% |
40% |
|
18 |
12% |
18% |
|
19 |
5% |
6% |
|
20 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
10% |
97% |
|
15 |
23% |
86% |
|
16 |
29% |
63% |
Median |
17 |
20% |
34% |
|
18 |
10% |
14% |
|
19 |
4% |
5% |
Last Result |
20 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
21 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
5 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
6 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
7 |
15% |
98% |
|
8 |
36% |
83% |
Median |
9 |
31% |
48% |
|
10 |
13% |
17% |
Last Result |
11 |
3% |
4% |
|
12 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Erakond Isamaa
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
38% |
100% |
|
1 |
0% |
62% |
|
2 |
0% |
62% |
|
3 |
0% |
62% |
|
4 |
13% |
62% |
Median |
5 |
38% |
49% |
|
6 |
10% |
11% |
|
7 |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
10 |
0% |
0% |
|
11 |
0% |
0% |
|
12 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
79 |
73 |
100% |
70–77 |
70–77 |
69–78 |
67–79 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond |
60 |
57 |
99.9% |
54–60 |
54–61 |
53–62 |
52–63 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
65 |
53 |
87% |
50–56 |
49–57 |
49–58 |
47–59 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
53 |
50 |
43% |
47–53 |
46–54 |
46–55 |
45–56 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
56 |
46 |
1.4% |
43–49 |
42–49 |
41–50 |
40–51 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
44 |
43 |
0% |
40–45 |
39–46 |
39–47 |
37–48 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa |
57 |
42 |
0% |
39–45 |
38–46 |
37–47 |
36–48 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond |
45 |
39 |
0% |
36–42 |
36–43 |
35–43 |
34–45 |
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa |
46 |
37 |
0% |
34–40 |
33–41 |
32–42 |
31–43 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa |
48 |
35 |
0% |
31–38 |
31–39 |
30–39 |
29–40 |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
36 |
32 |
0% |
29–34 |
29–35 |
28–35 |
27–37 |
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond |
29 |
24 |
0% |
22–27 |
22–27 |
21–28 |
20–29 |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0.9% |
99.5% |
|
69 |
3% |
98.5% |
|
70 |
12% |
95% |
|
71 |
13% |
84% |
|
72 |
10% |
71% |
|
73 |
16% |
61% |
Median |
74 |
15% |
46% |
|
75 |
9% |
31% |
|
76 |
10% |
22% |
|
77 |
9% |
12% |
|
78 |
3% |
4% |
|
79 |
0.6% |
0.8% |
Last Result |
80 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
81 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
82 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
50 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
51 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
Majority |
52 |
1.2% |
99.6% |
|
53 |
3% |
98% |
|
54 |
8% |
95% |
|
55 |
11% |
87% |
|
56 |
15% |
76% |
|
57 |
16% |
61% |
Median |
58 |
14% |
45% |
|
59 |
12% |
31% |
|
60 |
10% |
19% |
Last Result |
61 |
5% |
9% |
|
62 |
2% |
3% |
|
63 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
65 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
46 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
47 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
48 |
1.4% |
99.4% |
|
49 |
3% |
98% |
|
50 |
8% |
95% |
|
51 |
9% |
87% |
Majority |
52 |
17% |
78% |
|
53 |
14% |
61% |
|
54 |
18% |
47% |
Median |
55 |
13% |
29% |
|
56 |
9% |
16% |
|
57 |
4% |
7% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
|
62 |
0% |
0% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
64 |
0% |
0% |
|
65 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
43 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
45 |
1.5% |
99.5% |
|
46 |
4% |
98% |
|
47 |
7% |
94% |
|
48 |
13% |
88% |
|
49 |
15% |
75% |
|
50 |
18% |
61% |
Median |
51 |
15% |
43% |
Majority |
52 |
14% |
28% |
|
53 |
7% |
14% |
Last Result |
54 |
4% |
7% |
|
55 |
2% |
3% |
|
56 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
40 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
41 |
2% |
98% |
|
42 |
5% |
96% |
|
43 |
9% |
91% |
|
44 |
12% |
82% |
|
45 |
14% |
70% |
|
46 |
18% |
56% |
Median |
47 |
15% |
38% |
|
48 |
11% |
23% |
|
49 |
7% |
11% |
|
50 |
3% |
4% |
|
51 |
0.9% |
1.4% |
Majority |
52 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
53 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
36 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
37 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
38 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
39 |
5% |
98% |
|
40 |
10% |
93% |
|
41 |
14% |
83% |
|
42 |
18% |
69% |
Median |
43 |
18% |
51% |
|
44 |
15% |
34% |
Last Result |
45 |
10% |
19% |
|
46 |
5% |
9% |
|
47 |
3% |
4% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
1.2% |
|
49 |
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
50 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
35 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
36 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
37 |
2% |
99.2% |
|
38 |
4% |
97% |
|
39 |
7% |
93% |
|
40 |
10% |
87% |
|
41 |
14% |
76% |
|
42 |
16% |
62% |
|
43 |
15% |
46% |
Median |
44 |
13% |
31% |
|
45 |
9% |
17% |
|
46 |
5% |
8% |
|
47 |
2% |
3% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
1.0% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
33 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
34 |
0.9% |
99.8% |
|
35 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
36 |
7% |
96% |
|
37 |
12% |
90% |
|
38 |
17% |
77% |
|
39 |
17% |
60% |
Median |
40 |
17% |
43% |
|
41 |
13% |
26% |
|
42 |
7% |
13% |
|
43 |
4% |
6% |
|
44 |
2% |
2% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
Last Result |
46 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
30 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
31 |
0.6% |
99.8% |
|
32 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
33 |
4% |
97% |
|
34 |
7% |
93% |
|
35 |
10% |
86% |
|
36 |
14% |
75% |
|
37 |
12% |
61% |
|
38 |
17% |
49% |
Median |
39 |
14% |
32% |
|
40 |
10% |
17% |
|
41 |
5% |
8% |
|
42 |
2% |
3% |
|
43 |
0.7% |
0.9% |
|
44 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
27 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
28 |
0.3% |
99.9% |
|
29 |
1.2% |
99.7% |
|
30 |
3% |
98% |
|
31 |
6% |
96% |
|
32 |
8% |
89% |
|
33 |
12% |
81% |
|
34 |
12% |
69% |
|
35 |
19% |
57% |
Median |
36 |
13% |
37% |
|
37 |
12% |
24% |
|
38 |
7% |
12% |
|
39 |
4% |
5% |
|
40 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
26 |
0.3% |
100% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
99.7% |
|
28 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
29 |
7% |
95% |
|
30 |
16% |
88% |
|
31 |
21% |
72% |
Median |
32 |
19% |
51% |
|
33 |
15% |
32% |
|
34 |
9% |
17% |
|
35 |
5% |
7% |
|
36 |
2% |
2% |
Last Result |
37 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
39 |
0% |
0% |
|
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
19 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
20 |
0.6% |
99.9% |
|
21 |
3% |
99.3% |
|
22 |
9% |
97% |
|
23 |
17% |
88% |
|
24 |
21% |
70% |
Median |
25 |
24% |
50% |
|
26 |
13% |
26% |
|
27 |
8% |
13% |
|
28 |
3% |
5% |
|
29 |
0.9% |
1.2% |
Last Result |
30 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
31 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norstat
- Commissioner(s): MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
- Fieldwork period: 5–11 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.20%