Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 5–11 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 29.5% 27.7–31.4% 27.2–31.9% 26.7–32.4% 25.9–33.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 20.9% 19.3–22.6% 18.9–23.1% 18.5–23.5% 17.8–24.4%
Eesti 200 4.4% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 32–37 31–38 30–38 29–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 23 21–25 20–26 20–26 19–28
Eesti 200 0 16 14–18 14–19 13–19 13–20
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 16 14–18 14–18 13–19 13–20
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 8 7–10 7–10 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 4 0–6 0–6 0–6 0–7
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.6% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.2%  
31 7% 97%  
32 10% 90%  
33 18% 80%  
34 21% 62% Last Result, Median
35 17% 41%  
36 13% 24%  
37 6% 11%  
38 4% 5%  
39 1.3% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 1.0% 99.8%  
20 4% 98.8%  
21 11% 95%  
22 20% 83%  
23 23% 63% Median
24 19% 40%  
25 13% 22%  
26 6% 8% Last Result
27 2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.3% 100%  
13 3% 99.7%  
14 11% 97%  
15 20% 85%  
16 26% 66% Median
17 22% 40%  
18 12% 18%  
19 5% 6%  
20 1.0% 1.2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 3% 99.6%  
14 10% 97%  
15 23% 86%  
16 29% 63% Median
17 20% 34%  
18 10% 14%  
19 4% 5% Last Result
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 15% 98%  
8 36% 83% Median
9 31% 48%  
10 13% 17% Last Result
11 3% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100%  
1 0% 62%  
2 0% 62%  
3 0% 62%  
4 13% 62% Median
5 38% 49%  
6 10% 11%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 73 100% 70–77 70–77 69–78 67–79
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 57 99.9% 54–60 54–61 53–62 52–63
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 87% 50–56 49–57 49–58 47–59
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 50 43% 47–53 46–54 46–55 45–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 1.4% 43–49 42–49 41–50 40–51
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 43 0% 40–45 39–46 39–47 37–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 42 0% 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 39 0% 36–42 36–43 35–43 34–45
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 37 0% 34–40 33–41 32–42 31–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 35 0% 31–38 31–39 30–39 29–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 32 0% 29–34 29–35 28–35 27–37
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–27 22–27 21–28 20–29

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 0.9% 99.5%  
69 3% 98.5%  
70 12% 95%  
71 13% 84%  
72 10% 71%  
73 16% 61% Median
74 15% 46%  
75 9% 31%  
76 10% 22%  
77 9% 12%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.6% 0.8% Last Result
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9% Majority
52 1.2% 99.6%  
53 3% 98%  
54 8% 95%  
55 11% 87%  
56 15% 76%  
57 16% 61% Median
58 14% 45%  
59 12% 31%  
60 10% 19% Last Result
61 5% 9%  
62 2% 3%  
63 1.0% 1.3%  
64 0.2% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.8%  
48 1.4% 99.4%  
49 3% 98%  
50 8% 95%  
51 9% 87% Majority
52 17% 78%  
53 14% 61%  
54 18% 47% Median
55 13% 29%  
56 9% 16%  
57 4% 7%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 1.5% 99.5%  
46 4% 98%  
47 7% 94%  
48 13% 88%  
49 15% 75%  
50 18% 61% Median
51 15% 43% Majority
52 14% 28%  
53 7% 14% Last Result
54 4% 7%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.4% 99.6%  
41 2% 98%  
42 5% 96%  
43 9% 91%  
44 12% 82%  
45 14% 70%  
46 18% 56% Median
47 15% 38%  
48 11% 23%  
49 7% 11%  
50 3% 4%  
51 0.9% 1.4% Majority
52 0.4% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 5% 98%  
40 10% 93%  
41 14% 83%  
42 18% 69% Median
43 18% 51%  
44 15% 34% Last Result
45 10% 19%  
46 5% 9%  
47 3% 4%  
48 0.8% 1.2%  
49 0.3% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.8%  
37 2% 99.2%  
38 4% 97%  
39 7% 93%  
40 10% 87%  
41 14% 76%  
42 16% 62%  
43 15% 46% Median
44 13% 31%  
45 9% 17%  
46 5% 8%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.0%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.9% 99.8%  
35 2% 98.9%  
36 7% 96%  
37 12% 90%  
38 17% 77%  
39 17% 60% Median
40 17% 43%  
41 13% 26%  
42 7% 13%  
43 4% 6%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.6% 99.8%  
32 2% 99.1%  
33 4% 97%  
34 7% 93%  
35 10% 86%  
36 14% 75%  
37 12% 61%  
38 17% 49% Median
39 14% 32%  
40 10% 17%  
41 5% 8%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 0.9%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 1.2% 99.7%  
30 3% 98%  
31 6% 96%  
32 8% 89%  
33 12% 81%  
34 12% 69%  
35 19% 57% Median
36 13% 37%  
37 12% 24%  
38 7% 12%  
39 4% 5%  
40 1.3% 2%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 1.1% 99.7%  
28 3% 98.6%  
29 7% 95%  
30 16% 88%  
31 21% 72% Median
32 19% 51%  
33 15% 32%  
34 9% 17%  
35 5% 7%  
36 2% 2% Last Result
37 0.5% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 3% 99.3%  
22 9% 97%  
23 17% 88%  
24 21% 70% Median
25 24% 50%  
26 13% 26%  
27 8% 13%  
28 3% 5%  
29 0.9% 1.2% Last Result
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations