Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 12–18 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.4–31.1% 26.0–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 21.8% 20.2–23.5% 19.7–24.0% 19.3–24.5% 18.6–25.3%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 16.3% 14.9–17.9% 14.5–18.3% 14.1–18.7% 13.5–19.5%
Eesti 200 4.4% 14.2% 12.9–15.7% 12.5–16.1% 12.2–16.5% 11.6–17.3%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.2–9.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 32 30–35 29–35 29–36 28–37
Eesti Keskerakond 26 24 22–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–19 14–20 14–21
Eesti 200 0 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–8 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 6 5–8 5–8 5–8 4–9
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.2% 100%  
28 1.3% 99.7%  
29 4% 98%  
30 10% 94%  
31 17% 84%  
32 23% 67% Median
33 20% 44%  
34 13% 25% Last Result
35 8% 12%  
36 3% 4%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 6% 98%  
22 15% 92%  
23 23% 76%  
24 23% 53% Median
25 16% 30%  
26 9% 14% Last Result
27 3% 4%  
28 0.9% 1.1%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 10% 97%  
16 23% 87%  
17 27% 64% Median
18 21% 37%  
19 11% 16% Last Result
20 4% 5%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.6% 100%  
12 5% 99.4%  
13 17% 95%  
14 26% 78%  
15 27% 52% Median
16 17% 26%  
17 6% 8%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 5% 99.9%  
6 27% 95%  
7 40% 68% Median
8 23% 28%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
11 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 0% 99.7%  
2 0% 99.7%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0.5% 99.7%  
5 15% 99.3%  
6 43% 84% Median
7 28% 41%  
8 12% 13%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 73 100% 71–75 70–76 70–76 69–78
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 56 99.8% 53–59 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 56 99.7% 53–58 53–59 52–60 51–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 49 27% 47–52 46–53 46–53 45–54
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 47 4% 45–49 44–50 43–51 42–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 46 0.6% 43–48 42–49 42–49 41–51
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 41 0% 38–43 38–44 37–44 36–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 39 0% 37–42 36–42 36–43 35–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 39 0% 36–41 36–42 35–43 34–44
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–39 34–40 33–41 32–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 31 0% 28–33 28–34 27–34 26–35
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 24 0% 22–26 21–27 21–27 20–28

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 2% 99.5%  
70 5% 98%  
71 11% 93%  
72 19% 81%  
73 23% 62% Median
74 19% 39%  
75 12% 20%  
76 6% 8%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
80 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.7% 99.8% Majority
52 3% 99.2%  
53 7% 96%  
54 13% 90%  
55 20% 77%  
56 16% 57% Median
57 20% 41%  
58 10% 21%  
59 6% 11%  
60 4% 5% Last Result
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 1.0% 99.7% Majority
52 3% 98.7%  
53 7% 95%  
54 13% 88%  
55 21% 75% Median
56 19% 54%  
57 17% 35%  
58 11% 19%  
59 5% 8%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.5%  
46 4% 98%  
47 10% 94%  
48 17% 84%  
49 19% 66% Median
50 21% 48%  
51 14% 27% Majority
52 8% 13%  
53 4% 5% Last Result
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 3% 99.3%  
44 5% 97%  
45 11% 92%  
46 19% 81%  
47 19% 62% Median
48 18% 42%  
49 15% 24%  
50 6% 10%  
51 2% 4% Majority
52 1.1% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 4% 98.6%  
43 8% 95%  
44 13% 86%  
45 20% 73% Median
46 21% 53%  
47 16% 33%  
48 9% 17%  
49 5% 7%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.4% 0.6% Majority
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.8% 99.8%  
37 3% 99.0%  
38 7% 96%  
39 14% 89%  
40 20% 74%  
41 20% 54% Median
42 17% 35%  
43 10% 17%  
44 5% 7%  
45 2% 2% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.5%  
36 4% 98%  
37 11% 94%  
38 16% 83%  
39 21% 66% Median
40 21% 45%  
41 13% 25%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 4%  
44 1.1% 1.4% Last Result
45 0.3% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.9% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.9%  
36 9% 95%  
37 13% 86%  
38 20% 73% Median
39 21% 53%  
40 15% 33%  
41 10% 18%  
42 5% 8%  
43 2% 3%  
44 0.5% 0.6%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.2%  
34 5% 97%  
35 13% 92%  
36 19% 79%  
37 21% 61% Median
38 18% 39%  
39 12% 22%  
40 6% 9%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.6% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.6% 99.9%  
27 3% 99.3%  
28 7% 96%  
29 15% 90%  
30 22% 74%  
31 19% 52% Median
32 19% 33%  
33 8% 14%  
34 5% 6%  
35 1.0% 1.4%  
36 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 1.1% 99.8%  
21 4% 98.7%  
22 12% 95%  
23 22% 83%  
24 23% 61% Median
25 19% 38%  
26 11% 19%  
27 6% 8%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations