Opinion Poll by Kantar Emor for BNS and PostimeesA, 14–19 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 27.0% 25.4–28.7% 25.0–29.1% 24.6–29.6% 23.8–30.4%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 19.0% 17.6–20.5% 17.3–21.0% 16.9–21.3% 16.3–22.1%
Eesti 200 4.4% 17.0% 15.7–18.4% 15.3–18.8% 15.0–19.2% 14.4–19.9%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 14.0% 12.8–15.4% 12.5–15.8% 12.2–16.1% 11.6–16.8%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 9.0% 8.0–10.2% 7.8–10.5% 7.5–10.8% 7.1–11.3%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 8.0% 7.1–9.1% 6.9–9.4% 6.6–9.7% 6.2–10.3%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 4.0% 3.4–4.8% 3.2–5.1% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.6% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 31 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–23 18–23 17–24
Eesti 200 0 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–22
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 15 13–16 13–17 12–17 12–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 6–11
Erakond Isamaa 12 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 6–10
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–5
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.4% 99.9%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 6% 98%  
29 18% 91%  
30 20% 73%  
31 21% 54% Median
32 19% 33%  
33 10% 14%  
34 3% 4% Last Result
35 1.0% 1.1%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 6% 99.0%  
19 13% 93%  
20 24% 80%  
21 26% 56% Median
22 17% 30%  
23 11% 13%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0% 0.1% Last Result
27 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 2% 99.8%  
16 9% 98%  
17 18% 89%  
18 30% 71% Median
19 26% 41%  
20 10% 15%  
21 4% 5%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.3% 100%  
12 3% 99.7%  
13 13% 96%  
14 31% 83%  
15 30% 52% Median
16 16% 22%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.2% 1.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.5% 100%  
7 8% 99.5%  
8 30% 92%  
9 38% 62% Median
10 18% 24% Last Result
11 6% 6%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 9% 99.6%  
7 32% 90%  
8 40% 58% Median
9 15% 18%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0% 6%  
3 0% 6%  
4 4% 6%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 66 100% 64–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 53 91% 51–55 50–56 49–57 48–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 52 69% 49–54 48–54 48–55 47–56
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 47 4% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 47 4% 45–49 44–50 44–51 43–52
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 45 0.2% 43–48 42–48 42–49 41–50
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 41–45 40–46 39–47 38–47
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 40 0% 37–42 37–42 36–43 35–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 38 0% 36–41 36–41 35–42 34–43
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 37 0% 35–40 34–40 34–41 33–42
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 35 0% 33–38 32–38 32–39 31–40
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 30 0% 27–32 27–32 27–33 25–34
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 23 0% 22–25 21–26 21–26 20–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 6% 97%  
64 11% 91%  
65 18% 80%  
66 21% 62%  
67 19% 41% Median
68 14% 22%  
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 0.6%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.7% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 6% 97%  
51 11% 91% Majority
52 19% 80%  
53 23% 60%  
54 15% 37% Median
55 13% 22%  
56 6% 8%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.3% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 1.2% 99.6%  
48 4% 98%  
49 10% 94%  
50 15% 84%  
51 19% 69% Majority
52 22% 50% Median
53 15% 28%  
54 8% 12%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.8% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 5% 98%  
45 12% 93%  
46 17% 81%  
47 22% 64%  
48 15% 42% Median
49 17% 27%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.5%  
44 5% 98%  
45 12% 93%  
46 17% 81%  
47 22% 64%  
48 15% 42% Median
49 17% 27%  
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4% Majority
52 0.7% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.4% 100%  
41 1.1% 99.6%  
42 5% 98%  
43 10% 94%  
44 17% 84%  
45 22% 67%  
46 17% 44% Median
47 17% 27%  
48 7% 10%  
49 3% 4%  
50 0.6% 0.8%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.9%  
39 2% 99.4%  
40 5% 97%  
41 13% 92%  
42 16% 80%  
43 25% 63%  
44 15% 38% Median
45 14% 23%  
46 6% 9%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.4% 0.5%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 1.0% 99.8%  
36 4% 98.9%  
37 8% 95%  
38 17% 87%  
39 18% 70%  
40 24% 52% Median
41 16% 29%  
42 8% 13%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.0% 99.8%  
35 3% 98.8%  
36 11% 95%  
37 18% 85%  
38 21% 67%  
39 18% 46% Median
40 15% 28%  
41 9% 12%  
42 3% 4%  
43 0.7% 0.8%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 4% 98%  
35 9% 94%  
36 18% 85%  
37 23% 68%  
38 21% 45% Median
39 13% 23%  
40 7% 10%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 0.8%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.4% 99.8%  
32 4% 98%  
33 9% 94%  
34 17% 85%  
35 20% 68%  
36 23% 48% Median
37 13% 25%  
38 8% 12%  
39 3% 4%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 2% 99.4%  
27 8% 98%  
28 14% 90%  
29 25% 76%  
30 21% 51% Median
31 18% 30%  
32 8% 12%  
33 3% 4%  
34 0.6% 0.7%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.3% 100%  
20 2% 99.7%  
21 7% 98%  
22 18% 90%  
23 25% 73%  
24 21% 48% Median
25 19% 27%  
26 6% 8%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
30 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations