Opinion Poll by Turu-uuringute AS, 12–21 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.7% 17.1–20.3% 16.7–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.0%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 15.9% 14.5–17.4% 14.1–17.9% 13.7–18.3% 13.1–19.0%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.0%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 7.4% 6.5–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 6.0–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 29 27–32 26–33 26–33 25–35
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 14–22
Eesti 200 0 14 12–16 12–16 11–17 11–18
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 7 6–9 6–9 5–9 5–10
Erakond Isamaa 12 5 0–6 0–7 0–7 0–8
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.4% 99.9%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 12% 93%  
28 16% 80%  
29 20% 65% Median
30 22% 45%  
31 9% 22%  
32 8% 13%  
33 4% 5%  
34 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
35 0.3% 0.6%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.4% 100%  
17 2% 99.6%  
18 4% 98%  
19 16% 94%  
20 22% 77%  
21 22% 55% Median
22 16% 33%  
23 12% 17%  
24 4% 5%  
25 1.0% 1.4%  
26 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.3% 100%  
14 3% 99.7%  
15 9% 97%  
16 20% 88%  
17 21% 68% Median
18 25% 47%  
19 14% 22% Last Result
20 6% 8%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.4% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6%  
12 13% 97%  
13 22% 84%  
14 28% 62% Median
15 21% 34%  
16 9% 13%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100%  
5 3% 99.9%  
6 22% 97%  
7 36% 75% Median
8 27% 39%  
9 10% 12%  
10 2% 2% Last Result
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 0% 84%  
2 0% 84%  
3 0% 84%  
4 4% 84%  
5 45% 80% Median
6 28% 35%  
7 6% 7%  
8 0.5% 0.5%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 32%  
2 0% 32%  
3 0% 32%  
4 6% 32%  
5 23% 26%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 67 100% 64–71 63–72 62–73 61–75
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 51 62% 48–54 47–55 46–56 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 50 40% 47–53 46–55 46–55 44–57
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 47 6% 44–50 43–51 42–51 41–53
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 43 0.1% 40–46 38–47 37–48 36–49
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 43 0% 39–46 38–46 37–47 36–49
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 56 41 0% 38–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 38 0% 35–41 35–42 34–42 33–44
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 36 0% 34–39 33–40 32–41 31–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 34 0% 31–37 30–37 28–38 27–39
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa 48 33 0% 30–35 28–36 27–37 26–38
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 28 0% 26–30 25–31 25–32 23–33
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 25 0% 22–27 22–28 21–28 20–30

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.8% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 3% 97%  
64 6% 93%  
65 13% 87%  
66 12% 74%  
67 17% 63% Median
68 15% 46%  
69 10% 31%  
70 9% 20%  
71 4% 11%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 1.1% 99.4%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 96%  
48 9% 93%  
49 10% 84%  
50 12% 74%  
51 16% 62% Median, Majority
52 15% 46%  
53 15% 32%  
54 9% 17%  
55 5% 7%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.8% 1.1%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 5% 98%  
47 6% 93%  
48 12% 87%  
49 18% 74%  
50 16% 57% Median
51 15% 40% Majority
52 13% 26%  
53 4% 13%  
54 4% 9%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.8% 1.4%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.7%  
42 3% 98.9%  
43 6% 96%  
44 11% 90%  
45 12% 79%  
46 16% 67% Median
47 17% 51%  
48 15% 34%  
49 8% 19%  
50 5% 11%  
51 3% 6% Majority
52 1.4% 2%  
53 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.1% 99.5%  
37 1.1% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 10% 90%  
41 12% 80% Median
42 12% 68%  
43 21% 55%  
44 12% 34%  
45 9% 23%  
46 7% 13%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.0%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 1.3% 99.7%  
37 0.9% 98%  
38 2% 97%  
39 5% 95%  
40 10% 90%  
41 7% 80%  
42 19% 73%  
43 14% 54% Median
44 16% 40%  
45 11% 24%  
46 9% 13%  
47 3% 5%  
48 0.8% 1.5%  
49 0.5% 0.6%  
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.3% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.7%  
35 1.2% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 3% 95%  
38 8% 92%  
39 10% 84%  
40 13% 75%  
41 16% 61% Median
42 14% 45%  
43 17% 32%  
44 8% 15%  
45 5% 7%  
46 2% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.3% 100%  
33 1.3% 99.7%  
34 3% 98%  
35 7% 96%  
36 10% 88%  
37 16% 78%  
38 20% 61% Median
39 17% 42%  
40 11% 25%  
41 8% 14%  
42 4% 6%  
43 1.1% 2%  
44 1.0% 1.4%  
45 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.2% 100%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 4% 97%  
34 12% 93%  
35 13% 81%  
36 21% 68% Median
37 15% 47%  
38 14% 32%  
39 10% 18%  
40 4% 8%  
41 3% 4%  
42 0.6% 1.1%  
43 0.3% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
45 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.8% 99.7%  
28 1.5% 98.9%  
29 2% 97%  
30 5% 95%  
31 8% 91%  
32 11% 83%  
33 13% 72%  
34 17% 60% Median
35 19% 42%  
36 12% 23%  
37 7% 11%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.9%  
26 1.0% 99.7%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 3% 97%  
29 3% 93%  
30 8% 90%  
31 10% 82%  
32 17% 72%  
33 17% 55% Median
34 14% 38%  
35 15% 24%  
36 5% 9%  
37 3% 4%  
38 1.0% 1.2%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 6% 98%  
26 13% 92%  
27 18% 79%  
28 21% 61% Median
29 17% 40%  
30 14% 23%  
31 5% 9%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.6% 1.1%  
34 0.3% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.9%  
21 4% 99.2%  
22 8% 95%  
23 15% 87%  
24 21% 72% Median
25 21% 51%  
26 16% 30%  
27 8% 15%  
28 5% 6%  
29 1.3% 2% Last Result
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations