Opinion Poll by Norstat for MTÜ Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut, 18–25 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 28.9% 28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.2–30.9% 25.8–31.4% 25.0–32.3%
Eesti Keskerakond 23.1% 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.8–20.8% 16.4–21.2% 15.7–22.1%
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 17.8% 17.3% 15.8–18.9% 15.4–19.4% 15.1–19.8% 14.4–20.6%
Eesti 200 4.4% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Erakond Isamaa 11.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 9.8% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 1.8% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Eesti Vabaerakond 1.2% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond 34 34 31–36 30–37 29–38 28–39
Eesti Keskerakond 26 21 19–23 18–24 18–24 17–25
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 19 19 17–21 16–22 16–22 15–23
Eesti 200 0 15 13–16 12–17 12–17 11–18
Erakond Isamaa 12 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 10 0 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised 0 0 0 0 0 0
Eesti Vabaerakond 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eesti Reformierakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Reformierakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 2% 99.4%  
30 5% 97%  
31 10% 92%  
32 13% 82%  
33 12% 69%  
34 22% 57% Last Result, Median
35 17% 35%  
36 11% 18%  
37 5% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Keskerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 4% 98%  
19 14% 94%  
20 21% 80%  
21 27% 58% Median
22 15% 31%  
23 10% 16%  
24 4% 6%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 4% 99.3%  
17 13% 95%  
18 15% 81%  
19 26% 66% Last Result, Median
20 23% 41%  
21 10% 18%  
22 6% 8%  
23 0.8% 1.2%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Eesti 200

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti 200 page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.3% 99.9%  
12 7% 98.5%  
13 18% 92%  
14 23% 74%  
15 30% 51% Median
16 15% 21%  
17 5% 6%  
18 1.3% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Erakond Isamaa

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Isamaa page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 66% 100% Median
1 0% 34%  
2 0% 34%  
3 0% 34%  
4 9% 34%  
5 23% 26%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0%  
11 0% 0%  
12 0% 0% Last Result

Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 0% 28%  
4 5% 28%  
5 19% 22%  
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  
9 0% 0%  
10 0% 0% Last Result

Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Erakond Eestimaa Rohelised page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Eesti Vabaerakond

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Eesti Vabaerakond page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 79 74 100% 69–77 68–78 67–78 66–80
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond 60 55 92% 51–58 50–58 49–59 48–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 65 55 93% 51–58 50–59 49–59 48–61
Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 53 53 78% 49–56 48–56 48–57 46–59
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa 57 41 0% 38–45 38–46 37–47 36–48
Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond 45 40 0% 37–43 36–44 36–44 34–46
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond 56 36 0% 33–40 33–41 32–42 30–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 56 36 0% 33–40 33–41 32–42 30–43
Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa 46 35 0% 32–39 31–40 31–40 29–42
Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 44 35 0% 32–38 31–39 30–40 29–41
Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 48 24 0% 20–28 20–29 19–30 18–32
Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 36 22 0% 19–26 19–27 18–27 17–29
Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond 29 20 0% 18–24 17–24 16–25 16–27

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.7% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 6% 89%  
71 9% 83%  
72 10% 74%  
73 9% 64%  
74 14% 55% Median
75 9% 42%  
76 16% 32%  
77 10% 16%  
78 4% 6%  
79 2% 2% Last Result
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Keskerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 5% 97%  
51 6% 92% Majority
52 10% 86%  
53 11% 77%  
54 14% 65%  
55 13% 51% Median
56 16% 38%  
57 12% 22%  
58 6% 11%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.1% 2% Last Result
61 0.6% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 2% 98.9%  
50 5% 97%  
51 6% 93% Majority
52 9% 87%  
53 12% 78% Median
54 15% 66%  
55 20% 51%  
56 11% 30%  
57 8% 19%  
58 5% 11%  
59 4% 6%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 1.4% 99.4%  
48 5% 98%  
49 6% 93%  
50 9% 87%  
51 11% 78% Majority
52 12% 67%  
53 12% 56% Last Result, Median
54 14% 44%  
55 18% 30%  
56 7% 12%  
57 2% 4%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Erakond Isamaa

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 6% 95%  
39 7% 89%  
40 16% 82% Median
41 19% 66%  
42 12% 47%  
43 13% 35%  
44 7% 22%  
45 8% 15%  
46 4% 7%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.9%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 5% 98%  
37 8% 93%  
38 11% 84%  
39 12% 73%  
40 19% 61% Median
41 22% 42%  
42 8% 21%  
43 7% 13%  
44 3% 6%  
45 2% 2% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond – Eesti Vabaerakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 13% 90% Median
35 15% 77%  
36 14% 62%  
37 11% 48%  
38 9% 36%  
39 10% 28%  
40 9% 17%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.5% 99.9%  
31 1.1% 99.4%  
32 3% 98%  
33 5% 95%  
34 13% 90% Median
35 15% 77%  
36 14% 62%  
37 11% 48%  
38 9% 36%  
39 10% 28%  
40 9% 17%  
41 5% 9%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Erakond Isamaa

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 5% 93%  
33 8% 88%  
34 19% 80% Median
35 18% 61%  
36 14% 43%  
37 11% 29%  
38 6% 18%  
39 5% 12%  
40 5% 7%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.8%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Reformierakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.8% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.1%  
31 4% 97%  
32 9% 93%  
33 9% 84%  
34 17% 75% Median
35 18% 58%  
36 17% 40%  
37 8% 23%  
38 6% 15%  
39 5% 9%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Erakond Isamaa – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 1.0% 99.9%  
19 2% 98.9%  
20 9% 97%  
21 17% 88% Median
22 9% 71%  
23 9% 62%  
24 13% 53%  
25 9% 40%  
26 11% 31%  
27 7% 20%  
28 6% 13%  
29 4% 7%  
30 1.4% 3%  
31 1.0% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0%  
39 0% 0%  
40 0% 0%  
41 0% 0%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Keskerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.8% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.1%  
19 7% 97%  
20 16% 90%  
21 21% 74% Median
22 13% 53%  
23 11% 40%  
24 11% 28%  
25 6% 17%  
26 6% 11%  
27 3% 6%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.6%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond – Sotsiaaldemokraatlik Erakond

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 6% 97%  
18 9% 91%  
19 18% 82% Median
20 21% 64%  
21 13% 43%  
22 11% 30%  
23 6% 19%  
24 8% 12%  
25 2% 5%  
26 1.3% 2%  
27 0.8% 0.9%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations